Happy New Year!

With one week to go, there are several teams still vying for playoff spots, or at least competing for better seeding. We’ll go over the remaining scenarios in today’s brief newsletter.

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—Wes Roesch, Newsletter Editor at A to Z Sports

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Week 18 playoff scenarios: Remaining seeds and playoff hopefuls

With one week left in the regular season, there are 17 teams left competing for 14 playoff spots. Many of these teams have already locked up postseason spots, though the seeding can vary depending on Week 18’s results. For a few other teams, there is a chance of being bounced out of playoff seeding altogether.

Below is the current NFL playoff picture, with notes on how to get in and/or seeding for each team.

AFC

No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs 15-1

The Chiefs already have the No. 1 seed locked up, meaning they get the benefit of rest. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and others will not be playing against the Broncos this Sunday in a game that still has plenty of playoff implications for other teams.

No. 2: Buffalo Bills 13-3

The Bills have the No. 2 seed locked up, so they’ll have the opportunity to rest some starters as well against the Patriots in a game that won’t have any postseason implications.

No. 3: Baltimore Ravens 11-5

The Ravens still have plenty to play for — in particular, the AFC North. Here’s how the Ravens clinch their division, and hence the No. 3 seed:

• Win vs. Browns (Saturday late afternoon), OR…
• Steelers loss/tie vs. Bengals (Saturday night)

If the Ravens fail to clinch the AFC North, they’ll end up as the No. 5 seed.

No. 4: Houston Texans 9-7

The Texans have clinched the No. 4 seed, but might not rest all of their starters vs. the Titans due to some players wanting to hit contract incentives.

No. 5: Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6

The best Pittsburgh can do is the No. 3 seed if they win the AFC North. Here’s how:

• Win vs. Bengals (Saturday night), AND…
• Ravens loss vs. Browns (Saturday late afternoon)

If the Pittsburgh can’t take the North, it could end up a No. 5 or No. 6 seed depending on how the Chargers fall. And if the Steelers have already lost the North heading into their Saturday night game, it doesn’t look like they’ll rest starters regardless.

No. 6: Los Angeles Chargers 10-6

The Chargers have already clinched a playoff spot, so now it’s a question of whether they take the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. L.A. has been vague on whether it’ll rest starters heading into Sunday vs. the Raiders, but it’s worth noting that if the Steelers win Saturday then L.A. would be locked into the No. 6 seed.

No. 7: Denver Broncos 9-7

The Broncos had a chance to lock things up last week and failed with their loss to Cincinnati. Now, Denver is fighting for that final wild-card spot. Here’s how the Broncos take the No. 7 seed:

• Win/tie vs. Chiefs (Sunday late afternoon), OR…
• Bengals loss/tie vs. Steelers (Saturday night) AND Dolphins loss/tie vs. Jets (Sunday late afternoon)

In the hunt: Miami Dolphins 8-8

The Dolphins have managed to hang on after starting the season 2-6, and now need a bit of magic to get the No. 7 seed. Here’s how:

• Win vs. Jets (Sunday late afternoon), AND…
• Broncos loss vs. Chiefs (Sunday late afternoon)

The Dolphins hold the tiebreaker over Cincinnati due to having a better win percentage in conference games, so the outcome of the Bengals’ game doesn’t matter for Miami. The Dolphins would also hold a tiebreaker over Denver for the same reason, hence why they’d get in with a win and Broncos loss.

In the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals 8-8

The Bengals need slightly more magic than the Dolphins, but it’s still crazy that they’re in the thick of contention too considering they started the season 0-3 (and later 4-8). Here’s how Cincy gets in:

• Win vs. Steelers (Saturday night), AND…
• Broncos loss vs. Chiefs (Sunday late afternoon), AND…
• Dolphins loss/tie vs. Jets (Sunday late afternoon)

Eliminated:

Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans

NFC

No. 1: Detroit Lions 14-2

In an absolutely nuts scenario, Detroit can clinch the NFC North and the No. 1 seed with a win or tie vs. the Vikings on Sunday Night Football. If Detroit loses, it’ll be the fifth seed while Minnesota will take the top seed. A true banger coming up — here are our staff picks for the game.

No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles 13-3

Philly is locked into the No. 2 seed and will be resting starters against the Giants for Sunday’s game. There was some question of whether the Eagles would allow running back Saquon Barkley to play and chase the rushing title (he would need 101 yards), but even Barkley himself ultimately decided that resting for a playoff run is more important.

No. 3: Los Angeles Rams 10-6

The Rams are locked into the playoffs and will either be a No. 3 or No. 4 seed, depending on whether they tie in the standings with Tampa Bay. It appears L.A. will rest its starters against the Seahawks this Sunday.

No. 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7

The Bucs need to clinch the NFC South in order to make the playoffs — they can’t get in as a wild card. Here’s how they clinch:

• Win/tie vs. Saints (Sunday early afternoon), OR…
• Falcons loss/tie vs. Panthers (Sunday early afternoon)

Tampa could manage to get the No. 3 seed if it wins and the Rams lose vs. the Seahawks on Sunday.

No. 5: Minnesota Vikings 14-2

As mentioned above, the Vikings can capture the NFC North and the No. 1 seed with a win over the Lions on Sunday night. A loss or a tie gives Detroit the top seed and would keep Minnesota in the No. 5 spot.

No. 6: Washington Commanders 11-5'

It’s either the No. 6 seed or No. 7 seed for Washington, which has already clinched a playoff spot. The Commanders have the edge over the Packers due to having a better conference record, so a win vs. the Cowboys this Sunday keeps Washington in the No. 6 spot.

No. 7: Green Bay Packers 11-5

Similar to Washington, Green Bay will either be No. 6 or No. 7. The Packers can move up to the sixth spot with a win vs. Bears and a Commanders loss vs. Cowboys this Sunday.

In the hunt: Atlanta Falcons 8-8

The Falcons cannot make it as a wild card, so winning the NFC South and taking the No. 4 seed is their only route to the playoffs. Here’s how they make it:

• Win vs. Panthers (Sunday early afternoon), AND…
• Bucs loss vs. Saints (Sunday early afternoon)

Eliminated:

Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks

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