Bills have to handle tough discussions with Josh Allen, and it will impact their future after another painful loss to the Chiefs
It was a great shot, but it fell short again. The Buffalo Bills lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, and now they have a tough task of putting their pieces together to try again next season. The challenge can be even tougher, though, based on a move the Bills did […]
It was a great shot, but it fell short again. The Buffalo Bills lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, and now they have a tough task of putting their pieces together to try again next season. The challenge can be even tougher, though, based on a move the Bills did last offseason.
A new negotiation must come, and Josh Allen's contract will be much different in a few months.
Contract details
In 2021, Josh Allen signed a fairly team-friendly deal. The yearly average of $43 million was extremely solid for the quarterback by that time, but he agreed to a six-year extension that put him under contract through 2028. NFL cap inflation did the rest, and now Allen is $17 million under the top of the market—Dallas Cowboys's Dak Prescott is making $60 million a year.
To compensate for that, the Bills had to adjust. To avoid a new extension so early, the management anticipated $30 million of future compensation to 2024, making it a restructure bonus to keep the 2024 cap hit low.
Instead of making $30 million in 2024, Allen made $60 million. The Bills took $25 million away from 2025 and $5 million away from 2028.
That was good for everybody at the time, but this offseason brings an inflection point. Josh Allen is slated to make only $14.5 million in 2025, because more than half of his 2025 salary was anticipated. After everything Allen has done in the league, especially after a great season, there is no way he plays for that salary.
What's ahead
The money paid by the Bills helped Allen be happy in 2024. Now, you can argue that it will be awesome for the player because he will receive a new extension on top of that.
And while those points are correct, the Bills will keep taking advantage of a team-friendly structure.
Right now, Josh Allen is slated to make $129.5 million over the next four seasons, a yearly average of $32.37 million.
Spotrac projects that Allen's market value would be a four-year, $240.5 million deal—$60.1 million per season, slightly beating Dak Prescott to become the highest-paid player in the NFL.
Allen will fight for more, and probably fight for the deal to be shorter— that has been the trend around the league for quarterbacks over the past two years.
What it would look like
Let's say that the Bills give Josh Allen a two-year, $130 million extension. The new money would average $65 million per season, making him the highest-paid player in the history of football.
At the same time, the structure would still make it an extremely friendly contract for the Bills.
Combining the $129.5 million that Allen has in his current deal with this $130 million in new money, the quarterback would make $259.5 million over the next six seasons. His real average would be $43.25 million. Based on the current quarterback market, that's an amazing deal for the Bills.
It would also be possible to move money around with large amounts of signing bonuses, lowering his cap hits in Years 1 and 2.
It might be a difficult negotiation, because the way the Bills do it will dictate how much flexibility the team will have for 2025 and beyond.
But Josh Allen deserves to be paid, and the Bills' smart strategy in 2021 put them in position to do it again in 2025 without risking their future.
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