A big part of the Washington Commanders' success was bringing in experienced, affordable veterans who had not only produced good tape throughout their careers – they knew what head coach Dan Quinn was all about and could help build the foundation and culture that's required to have success in the NFL.

One such guy was Dante Fowler Jr., who ended having one of the best years of his career. He finished 2024 with 10.5 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, 12 quarterback hits, two forced fumbles, and his first-ever pick-six. All those numbers yield second-best marks in a single season for for the 11th year vet.

It's an incredible bargain when considering the fact his 2024 cap hit was just $3.25 million. However, he only signed a one-year deal so now the Commanders have to find a way to bring him back. And it may not be as easy as it should be.

It's all going to come down to just one obvious, yet significant factor: money. In a perfect world, both parties would be relatively close in terms of price and then there are all kinds of contract mechanisms like incentives, contract triggers, future option bonuses, etc. that can bridge the gap and get the deal done.

And getting to said price may be difficult for both parties, in this instance, for a few reasons.

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Fowler's falloff in the second half of the season

The first 10 games saw Fowler Jr. on pace for a Pro Bowl nod. He had 8.5 of his 10 sacks at that point and he had a very solid pressure rate of 23.5% against true pass sets that was better than guys named Kyle Van Noy, Danielle Hunter, and Jared Verse, per Pro Football Focus. 

Fowler Jr. has a non-stop motor and his previous experience in Dan Quinn's scheme allowed him to get off to a fast start. However, things really fell off after Week 10 and there were even metrics that gave credence to the idea that a decline was on the way.

His 14.0% win rate against true pass sets from Week 1-10 is the first red flag. It ranked 43rd out of 62 qualifying EDGE rushers with at least 175 pass rush snaps during that time span. That, combined with a fourth-best 16.1% pass rush productivity rate, signals Fowler Jr. is benefitting from scheme, opportunity, or the most likely situation – both.

We'll get to this more here in a minute, but when going back and watching all of Fowler's sacks from last year, that's the exact situation in about every single sack from last year.

From Week 11-18, or over the final seven games of the year, Fowler recorded just 2.0 sacks and his pressure rate against true pass sets plummeted to 9.2%. His win rate barely improved to 14.3%, but once the splash plays went away his PRP plummeted to a second-worst 6.5% among qualifying EDGE rushers with at least 166 pass rush snaps over those weeks. Things didn't get any better during the playoffs, either, as he finished with just six pressures and zero sacks over the course of 46 pass rush snaps.

The inconsistency has been consistent throughout his career and it's the first factor the Commanders have to consider when how much, and for how long, they want to pay him.

The Commanders have to be careful, as Fowler is 30 years old. Those 10.5 sacks came on just 12 quarterback knockdowns, an unsustainable ratio and one out of line with his career to this point. His 11.5-sack 2019 season led the Falcons to give him a significant deal in free agency, and he responded with 7.5 sacks combined over the next two seasons. It's tough to expect the same results, but he has clearly earned another opportunity to start for Washington in 2025. – Bill Barnwell, ESPN

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But Dan Quinn know how to use Fowler Jr. in the right ways and he's a good fit for the defense

OK, as mentioned earlier, the bulk of Fowler Jr.'s sacks came from scheme, opportunity, and the competition he was facing. Four of the sacks were the result of well-designed schemes, one was because he was left completely unblocked, and the remainder were a mix of competition, scheme, and opportunity/play flow.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not taking anything away from Fowler Jr. The dude hustles like crazy and doesn't quit on plays, which actually resulted in two of his sacks. He's also still very athletic and has the explosion and burst to finish plays. There wasn't really one sack, however, where he just straight-up whipped any of the league's best along the offensive line.

The key with all of his success is the Commanders know how to use him and he knows how to execute the defense. As mentioned above, several sacks resulted from well-designed stunts and even a few more were the result of stunts. A couple were also the result of Fowler Jr. getting matched up on a guard, where he has a clear advantage in regard to length and speed/agility. Quinn and Joe Whitt Jr. know how to use him to his strengths, which is obviously key in any player-coach relationship.

If I'm Fowler Jr., I'm asking the Commanders, "Why would we break this relationship up? It works." Both parties are good for each other and it's a good scheme fit.

It all goes back to the money.

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So, what's the right price for Fowler Jr.?

Fowler Jr. is in a tough spot. He'll turn 31 in August, yet he's got the numbers to push for a raise. He's going to want to get as much as he can within a reasonable range, because this is probably his last shot at getting a multi-year deal.

That last part will be key in all of this. A good comparison is Ravens pass rusher Kyle Van Noy. He finished with 9.5 sacks back in 2022 and proceeded to sign a two-year, $9 million deal with Baltimore during the 2023 season. He just finished 2024 with 12.5 sacks, the most he's ever recorded in a single season. Something within the $5-$7 million per year range makes sense, but things start to get dicey after that.

Spotrac currently has Fowler Jr.'s 2025 market value at $5.2 million per year, whereas Over The Cap has it at $6.789 million, which makes sense, as well. A two-year, $13.5 million deal with incentives is a good deal for this situation.

Everything's aligned for this work, but if the dollars don't make sense, well, then we may see the marriage end sooner than most would like.

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