The 12-Team College Football Playoff is just around the corner as the regular season is already a third of the way over for many teams. Imperfect teams are already tripping up. The true contenders are beginning to show their peak potential. Which teams will actually make it into this first ever 12-team playoff?

In case you missed the first few installments of this Playoff Bracket Predictions series, here's a short synopsis on how this column is put together:

Using a mix of current team records, remaining schedules, large sample data projections, and a few other variables we decided at A to Z Sports to build out weekly playoff predictions to help guide us towards this epic inaugural college football tournament.

And in case you missed the detailed breakdowns this off-season, the "5+7" model to this 12-team playoff means that the five highest ranked conference champions and seven more "at-large" bids as voted on by the college playoff committee earn a spot in the tournament field (as you can see in Chris Vannini's post below, sharing details directly from College Football Playoff representation this spring).

BREAKING: College Football Playoff approves a move to 5+7.

Five automatic spots for conference champions. pic.twitter.com/IFkCrdWsFR

— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) February 20, 2024

Other key things to know about this new game-changing playoff format:

• The top four seeds receive a first round bye.
• Seeds 5-8 host first round playoff games at home against seeds 9-12.
• The bracket will remain in effect throughout the entirety of the playoff, so there's no re-seeding based on early round outcomes.
• If you'd like the full breakdown on the college football playoff bracket you can find that here straight from the source.

With this new format in mind, it's time to share the A to Z Sports Week 5 predictions for the 2024 12-Team College Football Playoff, breaking down every game in each round based on a heavily data-driven projection of the season.

First Round

Four Conference Champions on Bye

1. Texas (13-0 SEC Champion)
2. Ohio State (13-0 Big Ten Champion)
3. Miami (12-1 ACC Champion)
4. Utah (12-1 Big 12 Champion)

First Four Matchups

• #12 Boise State (12-1 MWC Champion) at #5 Georgia
• #11 Louisville at #6 Alabama
• #10 Oregon Ducks at #7 Penn State
• #9 Ole Miss at #8 Tennessee

First Four Out

• Clemson
• Notre Dame
• Iowa State
• Missouri

Group of 5 Conference Contenders

• UNLV
• James Madison
• Liberty
• Navy
• Army

#12 Boise State at #5 Georgia

Georgia destroys Boise State, but Ashton Jeanty stars anyway.

If Boise State can make it past Washington State and UNLV they should finish the season 11-1. Then they just have to win the Mountain West Championship and they're likely in the College Football Playoff. Ashton Jeanty looks like he might be the best running back in the entire country as he's shredding opponents for nearly 200 yards per game on the ground. He'll break off a few big plays but Georgia's talent will prove too much.

Georgia has proven to be imperfect in a few key areas, especially when they face strong defensive line play. However, that's not exactly Boise State's strength. The Bulldogs should push the Broncos around up front and stifle any downfield shots with their elite safety tandem of Malaki Starks and KJ Bolden.

#11 Louisville at #6 Alabama

Alabama proves to be Louisville's toughest test and runs away with it late.

Louisville is posting elite marks in key success and efficiency stats so far across the board. They're the fourth most efficient offense in the nation on a per play basis and they rank 7th in yards per play differential overall. Jeff Brohm has built an incredible defensive front, strong wide receiver group, and he's getting the best play we've seen from Tyler Shough (in year seven). Unfortunately, their depth of elite talent can't match up against Alabama.

Jalen Milroe's dual threat ability to strike deep in the passing game and stress the defense up front with his legs will prove to be too much. Louisville will have played Notre Dame, Miami, and Clemson already, but none of those rosters measure up to what the Crimson Tide will bring their way for four quarters.

#10 Oregon at #7 Penn State

Penn State's White Out almost pulls it off, but Ducks advance.

Drew Allar has shown unbelievable improvements this year. He's doubled his touchdown rate, increased his completion rate by over 10%, and most of his key explosive play stats are through the roof when compared to 2023. However, the defense that is supposed to be truly elite has shown some vulnerabilities against less than stellar competition already. The best teams in the nation (like Oregon) should be able to take advantage.

Through the first couple games of the season Oregon was struggling with interior offense line play. However, they cleaned that up immensely against Oregon State and look much more balanced in terms of target distribution and play calling. Their elite set of playmakers with Jordan James at running back, Evan Stewart (WR), and Tez Johnson (WR) should be able to win underneath via YAC and push vertically against a Penn State secondary that really only has one top tier player.

#9 Ole Miss at #8 Tennessee

Jaxson Dart plays like a Heisman Trophy winner, but Tennessee's offensive explosion maintains pace and wins the best game of round one.

Jaxson Dart is on pace to win the Heisman Trophy early on and that dominant play should continue. He'll likely play extremely well as he's number one in most meaningful metrics across the board among all college football passers so far this year. Ole Miss' defensive front will bring the pressure on Nico Iamaleava all game long too.

Unfortunately for Ole Miss, Tennessee's offense should be able to keep pace as they continue to play near perfection, even against the tougher competition in Oklahoma last weekend. The much improved defense for Tennessee that is allowing the fewest yards per game in the nation through four weeks should do just enough to slow Ole Miss and win a close one.

Controversial sports talk show host makes a huge prediction about Tennessee Vols’ football success this season

He believes in them.

Quarterfinals

#1 Texas vs #9 Tennessee

Texas wins the battle for the claim to the "Real UT" thanks to Longhorns key talent advantages.

Regardless of who plays quarterback for Texas their offense looks unstoppable so far. Arch Manning and Quinn Ewers both could carry this stacked Texas roster to an SEC Championship this year. The offense is top 10-15 in almost every statistical measure despite their schedule already including a Michigan defense full of future NFL players. But the defense is what will truly win the day for Texas over Tennessee.

The Longhorns young core comprised of linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and true freshman Colin Simmons at edge mixed with a veteran crew of elite talents like Trey Moore and Jahdae Barron up front and in the secondary should hold the Vols' efficiency back. Nico Iamaleava and his skill position players are good, but they'll stall at times against Texas.

Texas football on pace to rewrite the entire offensive record book with longer season ahead

The regular season is already one-third over. Some of the numbers the Texas offense is putting up defy logic. They’re on pace to obliterate all kinds of school records. And they’ll likely get more chances than ever, too. Before we go any further, it should be noted that No. 1 Texas plans on going deep […]

#2 Ohio State vs #10 Oregon

Ohio State asserts their dominance yet again in a rematch from midseason.

Ohio State's dynamic duo at running back of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, the top tier talents at wide receiver with Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, and the defense that's allowing just 180 total yards per game so far will likely prove too much for the Ducks. Oregon took major steps to correct their interior offense line play and is finding more offensive balance already after a slow start, but the talent gap between these two teams looks rather steep. Dillon Gabriel might still put up decent numbers as he gives his everything and pushes to break all-time college football records in his final career start, but it won't likely be enough.

#3 Miami vs #6 Alabama

Alabama pours cold water on Miami's seemingly special season in a blowout.

Cameron Ward has been a top three quarterback in the sport so far this season. He's doing everything he can to take Miami football to special heights they haven't reached in decades. There's one problem. Alabama is not looking like there's been any drop off from the Nick Saban era to Kalen DeBoer. They still have draft picks at every level of their defense and a potential Heisman-winner at quarterback in Jalen Milroe. Miami should take care of the majority of their ACC opponents, but this game will be a cruel reality check.

#4 Utah vs #5 Georgia

Cameron Rising tries to pull some heroics early on, but Georgia pulls away easily.

Utah is perennially underrated because they simply don't recruit like a premier program, but every single year they're one of the best teams in the nation. Last season they struggled some with Cameron Rising injured. This year he's missed time again, and they've still found a way to stay undefeated so far. While that's impressive, and it looks like their roster is good enough to win the Big 12, they have literally zero shot against a team like Georgia. This shouldn't be as bad as the 65-7 thrashing Georgia handed TCU in the championship game two years ago because Utah's defense is better than that, but it won't be close.

Semifinals

#1 Texas vs #5 Georgia

Nobody beats Kirby Smart in the same season twice. Georgia makes key adjustments in their secondary and wins.

Texas has proved to be nearly perfect this season, while Georgia's offensive line has struggled against the tougher defensive units a bit this season. Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs might have a couple more scares this year, and will perhaps lose their first game against Texas in a few short weeks, but nobody beats Georgia twice in the same season. Malaki Starks, a developing true freshman star in KJ Bolden, and the stud pass rushing group up front led by Jalon Walker will be firing on all cylinders at this point of season. That could certainly be enough to win the day.

#2 Ohio State vs #6 Alabama

Ohio State matches up well against Alabama and wins by more than a score.

There are very few teams in college football who match up well against Alabama, but Ohio State is one of them. From the clear size-speed advantage of Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka at wide receiver against Alabama's defensive back group. To the secondary of the Buckeyes facing a much less experienced or proven wide receiver set. To the battle of the trenches where Ohio State might have an advantage on both sides of the ball, with an exception or two. Ohio State has been building their team to beat the monsters like Alabama and they've finally put together the roster to do it.

Championship

#2 Ohio State vs #5 Georgia

Ohio State and Ryan Day have been waiting nearly two years to get their revenge against Georgia. The Buckeyes loss on New Years Eve in the semifinals two years ago on a last second missed field goal at midnight is not a memory that quickly fades.

Just like the matchup against Alabama, Ohio State finally has the roster full of talent to match up one-to-one with Georgia. There's a real chance that Georgia's record of 15 drafted players from the same school in the same class gets broken next spring by Ohio State. And if this stacked team wins the national championship against Georgia in dramatic fashion the chances of that only increase.

Ohio State leads all college football teams in yards per play differential out-gaining their opponents by 5.61 yards per snap so far. Their offense is currently just 0.02 yards per play away from the all-time record pace in the history of college football. The defense is number one in the nation by multiple measures. This is the year if it's ever going to happen under Ryan Day.

Will Howard reveals key change that is coming and it should have Ohio State’s opponents worried

The offense could become even more dangerous.

First Four Out

In this scenario the "first four out" are Clemson, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Missouri.

• Clemson – Cade Klubnik has actually looked good after Georgia humbled the Tigers in Week 1. The defense is still strong. They just need to push for an ACC Championship game win or appearance.
• Notre Dame – After the embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois the Fighting Irish trounced Purdue, but then started slow against another MAC team last week. They need to decide which version of themselves they want to be.
• Iowa State – So far the Cyclones look like they're "good at everything, great at nothing" via most objective measures, but they're currently undefeated in a battle for the wide open Big 12.
• Missouri – Yes, they struggled against Vanderbilt. If they do that against many other teams they will lose multiple games. However, their schedule is very beatable the rest of the way.

A quarterback change for Notre Dame might be wanted by some, and maybe it will finally prove something

Maybe a quarterback change for Notre Dame will give some clarity

Group of 5 Contenders

There are five key Group of 5 Conference contenders outside of Boise State:

• UNLV – Their QB situation just imploded thanks to Matthew Sluka's midweek announcement, but they still have one of the best non-power conference rosters and an undefeated record (for now).
• James Madison – They just dropped 70 points on North Carolina. They're undefeated and should very likely be favored in every single remaining game on their schedule this season.
• Liberty – Similar to James Madison, they have a light schedule and could certainly be undefeated in December. However, they're playing teams a bit too close so far to be in the lead for the last playoff spot.
• Navy – Fresh off a win over Memphis who was supposed to win the AAC conference, Navy looks in control of their own destiny. They play Notre Dame and South Florida, both of which could define their playoff bid or completely blow them away.
• Army – Just like Navy, Army has to face Notre Dame, but the rest of their schedule isn't as daunting. They likely need a couple of these contenders to lose if they want a shot.

---

We'll be back with more College Football Playoff coverage here at A to Z Sports all season long! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!