Top 3 Best Player Prop Bets to consider for the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII
Super Bowl LVIII is finally here! That means everything you could possibly imagine is available for betting. From Taylor Swift lipstick color, to the duration of the National Anthem, to halftime playlists there seems to be a bet for everything. However, the best way to actually make money on the Super Bowl can often be […]
Super Bowl LVIII is finally here! That means everything you could possibly imagine is available for betting. From Taylor Swift lipstick color, to the duration of the National Anthem, to halftime playlists there seems to be a bet for everything. However, the best way to actually make money on the Super Bowl can often be playing it simple and smart, identifying the few player prop bets that offer the most glaring value.
That's what we're going to tackle today. There are definitely dozens of decent player prop bets still available, but these three Kansas City Chiefs options stand out as particularly valuable given the matchups and probabilities implied. No bet is a sure thing, but we hope these props provide some good luck as you root for them to bring you home some extra green on Super Bowl Sunday.
Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD (-115 best odds)
It may surprise, but Isiah Pacheco actually holds a larger rushing share in his backfield than Christian McCaffrey on the season. Pacheco sees 64.7% of the rushing share (via Sumer Sports) and has consistently ranked inside the top ten in the league at avoiding negative rushing plays.
Pacheco has seven rushing touchdowns in his last seven games and matches up favorably given that he succeeds exactly where the 49ers struggle.
San Francisco is third worst in the league against runs outside the tackles this year. Pacheco has six of his 10 touchdowns off tackle, showing his best efficiency on outside runs by far. His runs to the edge are over 50% more efficient than inside the guards. San Francisco has been absolutely terrible defending the edges against the run in the playoffs, allowing a 75% success rate against the Packers and Lions. Six of 16 outside runs against them have gone for more than 10 yards too.
Plus Pacheco "runs like he bites people" according to a fellow NFL player, so that's got to be worth something right?
Rashee Rice Under 6.5 Receptions (best odds +100)
It's notable that Rashee Rice apparently suffered a minor injury this week and earned a limited practice designation due to ankle issues. It's unknown how that will impact him in the Super Bowl, but banking on seven receptions is tough for any player.
Yes, his usage has seen a major uptick overall since Thanksgiving weekend, but he's fallen below 6.5 receptions in three of the last five weeks. His yardage isn't safe to bet against as he has nine games with receptions over 20 yards, but his receptions are a potential value.
Rice's 13 targets over the last two weeks is his lowest mark of any two-week span since early November and his efficiency has suffered immensely as teams have begun to key in on him as the only threat the Chiefs possess outside of Travis Kelce.
Plus the 49ers have stellar cornerback play and the best coverage linebacker tandem in the league. There really isn't a favorable matchup for him on the entire 49ers defense.
Patrick Mahomes Under 26.5 Rushing Yards (best odds -110)
Lastly, this might be the easiest money of them all.
Earlier in the season Patrick Mahomes was running a bit more while also maintaining unsustainable levels of efficiency on the ground. But in the back half of the season Mahomes has tapered off his run game production.
Yes, he ran the ball 10 times in a losing effort against the Raiders and saw his rushing total inflated by a 28-yarder against Miami in the first round of the playoffs, but outside of those two games he hasn't eclipsed 26.5 rushing yards since November 20th.
This is essentially a sports book betting that Mahomes scampers for a 15+ yard run and then adds more out of panicked necessity. He has two runs of 15 or more yards since November 5th. This one should be a solid bet.
Nothing is truly a safe bet, and you should only wager money you can afford to lose, but best of luck to you al in your Super Bowl betting endeavors!
