The Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins matchup could frequently feature one key penalty thanks to a particular referee assignment.

Referee Brad Rogers has been assigned to the wild-card round playoff game Saturday, and Rogers tends to call a crucial penalty more than most other refs: defensive holding.

How does this impact the game? Well, according to data from Warren Sharp, it could be an advantage for the Chiefs, whose offense has been one of the best in the league at drawing defensive holding penalties. They ranked first in 2022 and second in 2023.

REFS IMPACTING GAME OUTCOMES

the Chiefs offense has been elite at generating defensive holding penalties:

#1 in 2022
#2 in 2023

the ref for this KC/MIA, Brad Rodgers, has called top-5 most defensive holding this year

ref analysis via @nflrefstats1:https://t.co/lqiS6Iw6Yh

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) January 12, 2024

Sharp also noted that in three games played with Rogers as the ref, the Chiefs have averaged two penalties per game, while the Dolphins average 9.5 penalties per game in two games with Rogers as the ref.

There's one factor that may throw a wrench into all of this analysis: the weather. With temperatures projected to be below zero, the running game for both teams could be favored over passing the ball. Defensive holding tends to be called in the passing game, so it's possible we don't see this as often as the stats suggest.

In fact, Sharp's analysis implies that we could see more offensive holding than defensive holding overall. Both Kansas City and Miami were top three teams in offensive holding this season, and Rogers led NFL refs in calling offensive holding. If both teams commit to the running game, we could easily see some drives derailed by offensive holds.

Chiefs vs. Dolphins broadcast info: How to watch on Peacock

A look at broadcast information for NBC Peacock coverage of the Kansas City Chiefs’ game vs. the Miami Dolphins.