Cowboys Playoff Picture: Can they steal the NFC East?

The Dallas Cowboys are 5-3 at the midseason mark following a close, hard-fought loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 9. As a result, we're reviewing their season so far. You can find more articles in this series at the bottom of the post. In this one, we look at their current playoff picture. Cowboys' […]

Mauricio Rodriguez — Dallas Cowboys News Writer
Add as preferred source on Google
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) is upended by Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Zach Cunningham (52) and cornerback Darius Slay (2) during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field.
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Cowboys are 5-3 at the midseason mark following a close, hard-fought loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 9. As a result, we're reviewing their season so far. You can find more articles in this series at the bottom of the post. In this one, we look at their current playoff picture.

Cowboys' playoff picture if the season ended today… 

The Cowboys would not be a division champion if the season ended today but they would be a playoff team as one of the conference's three wild card teams. Here's what the NFC postseason would look like: 

  1. Eagles (8-1)
  2. Lions (6-2)
  3. 49ers (5-3)
  4. Saints (5-4)
  5. Seahawks (5-3)
  6. Cowboys (5-3)
  7. Vikings (5-4)

The above seeding would mean the Cowboys would go on the road during the Wild Card Round to visit the… drumrolls… 49ers! What could go wrong with that?

All kidding aside, the Cowboys and the Seattle Seahawks seem to be locked in a race for the fifth seed (the top Wild Card seed) in the NFC. That spot potentially means the difference between visiting the Eagles, Lions, or Niners, and whoever ends up winning the NFC South.

Will the Cowboys make the playoffs?

This gets a confident yes for me even after a tough loss in Philadelphia. The Cowboys have a 90.9% chance of making the postseason, per Aaron Schatz's DVOA-based probabilities. 

That number is the highest among any non-divisional leader in the NFL through nine weeks of the season. 

We know this: The Cowboys are a very good football team that's likely to win against weak opponents. Even against the best they've got a good chance, as they showed in a tight game of inches vs. the Eagles. This is a playoff team. 

Can Dallas win the NFC East?

Now, that's the complicated part of it. Here's the probability to win the division, per Schatz's playoff chances:

  • Eagles: 84.5%
  • Cowboys: 15.4%

It's not looking good, in other words. The Eagles have a tough stretch of games coming up and they might open the door before these two teams face each other again in Week 14. These are Philly's next five games, for what it's worth:

  • @ KC Chiefs
  • vs BUF Bills
  • vs SF 49ers
  • @ DAL Cowboys
  • @ SEA Seahawks

The Cowboys need Philly to drop a few during that time. However, it isn't as simple as some fans might assume as they face a glaring problem.

Say they split wins and the Cowboys get even with them, eliminating the head-to-head tiebreaker in Week 14, the Cowboys might not get the conference record they need for a potential tiebreaker. 

Assuming they each end 5-1 within the division (they're much better than the Giants and the Commanders), the next two tiebreakers would be common games and conference records. 

It's too early to know about the former but chances are the Eagles beat the Cardinals, one of the Cowboys' three losses. For the latter, the Cowboys sit at 2-3 against NFC opponents while Philly is 6-0. The edge is clearly on the Eagles' side. 

That in turn means the Cowboys would likely need an overall better record than Philly and that will be a tall task.

Additionally, Dallas will also face its own tough stretch of five games even if it's not right away. From Week 13 to Week 17, here is their remaining schedule:

  • vs SEA Seahawks
  • vs PHI Eagles
  • @ BUF Bills
  • @ MIA Dolphins
  • vs DET Lions

Those five are sandwiched by two games against the Washington Commanders. Even those could be tough since they're divisional showdowns, regardless if they have a losing record or not.

As of right now, it doesn't look like the Cowboys will keep the famous streak going. No NFC East team has won the division in back-to-back years since 2004. The Eagles are trending toward breaking it. 

More on the midseason mark for the Cowboys:

Related Articles