Why are the 49ers favored over the Eagles?
Kyle Shanahan rarely expresses confusion at his press conferences, but the San Francisco 49ers head coach was this week clearly puzzled by his team’s status as favorites for their Week 13 NFC Championship Game rematch with the Philadelphia Eagles. San Francisco opened the week as a two-point favourite despite trailing the Eagles by two games in […]
Kyle Shanahan rarely expresses confusion at his press conferences, but the San Francisco 49ers head coach was this week clearly puzzled by his team’s status as favorites for their Week 13 NFC Championship Game rematch with the Philadelphia Eagles.
San Francisco opened the week as a two-point favourite despite trailing the Eagles by two games in the race to be the one seed in the NFC. The spread has since increased to three points, not that Shanahan is taking that seriously.
"I mean, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me, but I don't really know how that stuff works," Shanahan said on Wednesday. "So, I don't really know why. It is random."
Eagles coach Nick Sirianni also has little interest in the odds, though he naturally is happy for his team to be viewed as underdogs.
"Not going to get wrapped into what anybody else thinks of us, whether that’s another team, whether that’s whoever makes the spreads, or anything like that," Sirianni said on Thursday.
"We just worry about going to work for ourselves. I think going into the last year and the year before, no one really thought we would be any good. I think it’s okay to be the underdog."
Shanahan and Sirianni might have a shared lack of interest in the spread, but it has been a hot topic of conversation throughout the week. So let's explore the question. Why are the 8-3 Niners favorites on the road against the 10-1 Eagles?
Rest
One of the simplest explanations concerns time on the field. The 49ers haven't played since Thanksgiving, allowing San Francisco plenty of time to recuperate ahead of the Niners' most highly anticipated game of the season.
By contrast, the Eagles are coming off an overtime win over the Buffalo Bills in which their defense was on the field for 97 plays.
The Eagles' defense spent over 40 minutes on the field against Buffalo, having been out there for over 32 minutes in the defeat of the Chiefs.
Simply put, the 49ers have a big rest advantage, and it's one their offense can maximize by putting considerable strain on the Eagles' defense with the way in which it uses the diverse skill sets of its stacked skill position group.
Though the Philadelphia defense had an easy time of it against the 49ers in last season's title game after Brock Purdy was knocked out on San Francisco's first offensive series, all things being equal the Niners' offense is excellently set up to take advantage of the clear matchup advantages it has in its favor.
A big-time edge
The Philadelphia offense can present a lot of problems for the San Francisco defense. Despite the eventual lopsided nature of the title game, the 49ers' defense frustrated Jalen Hurts and Co. for long periods.
Philadelphia has a huge amount of talent on its defense, but the Eagles' biggest weakness on that side of the ball is such that it is difficult to see them slowing the San Francisco attack for a prolonged time.
Shanahan's offense has long since been one that focuses on attacking the middle of the field and setting up yards after catch opportunities. The Eagles have struggled mightily defending that area in 2023, ranking 31st in Expected Points Added per play defending short throws over the middle.
And with a hamstring injury to Zach Cunningham likely elevating backup WILL linebacker Christian Elliss to the starting lineup, the 49ers have plenty of reason to expect they can spam throws to the middle and make it a long day for a defense that could also be missing veteran Fletcher Cox from the defensive line.
Conventional wisdom says the biggest edge in this game is the difference at quarterback between Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy. Yet Purdy is playing at a level to negate any disparity between the two signal-callers and the Eagles' deficiency in middle of the field defense has the potential to turn the tide in his favor.
The most significant advantage either team has in this game is the 49ers getting the chance to attack the Eagles' depleted linebackers with motion, play-action and a cavalcade of weapons. It is a mismatch that can tilt the game heavily towards the team that has played the better football this season.
Extremely telling numbers
Philadelphia has the biggest signature win of either team having knocked off the Chiefs, but both the raw and the more granular numbers point to the 49ers being the better team.
The 49ers (+140) have a far superior point differential (+64) to the Eagles. On offense, they average the second-most yards per play (6.4) in the NFL, a full yard more than Philadelphia. San Francisco averages 250.1 passing yards per game to the Eagles' 231 and, while the gap in rushing offense is substantially smaller (136 to 133.3 yards per game), it is still the Niners with the edge.
In terms of explosive plays, San Francisco has 159 plays of at least 10 yards to 130 for Philadelphia. The Niners have racked up 54 of at least 20 yards, compared to 45 for the Eagles.
It is dead even in points per game (28.2), but the 49ers are the more efficient offense, leading the NFL in EPA per play, Success Rate and DVOA.
On defense, the 49ers have given up the fewest points (170), almost 80 fewer than the Eagles (246). They are fifth in yards per play allowed (4.8), with the Eagles only slightly behind (5.2). Philadelphia has given up the fourth-most passing yards per game (255.7), considerably more than a 49er defense that has allowed 213.3.
The run defense is even in terms of yards per play, each team allowing four yards per carry, though that is one area where the advanced metrics favor Philadelphia. The Eagles' defense is 17th against the run by EPA per play and fifth by Success Rate, with San Francisco 24th and 25th in those respective metrics.
Yet the 49ers have slightly more sacks (33) than the Eagles (32) and have 21 takeaways compared to 14 for Philadelphia. Additionally, the Niners do an excellent job of avoiding explosive plays. They have given up 118 plays of at least 10 yards, 32 fewer than the Eagles, while their 31 plays of at least 20 yards is tied for the fewest in the league. Philadelphia has allowed 39.
The Niners have the edge in almost every statistical category, their biggest advantage being in overall DVOA. San Francisco is second in that efficiency metric with a DVOA of 39.7%, with Philadelphia well behind in ninth (15.6%).
That is a massive gap that cannot simply be cancelled out by home advantage. The 49ers are the more rested and healthier team — the Eagles are also likely to be without star tight end Dallas Goedert — and all the numbers indicate they are the superior team.
The Eagles undoubtedly have the talent to quickly prove bookmakers and bettors wrong, but when you dig beyond the win-loss records, there are plenty of logical reasons why the 49ers head to Lincoln Financial Field as the favorite to claim a statement win on the road.
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