Jordan Love’s growth gives the Packers hope to face ascending defenses
This has been a season full of ups and downs for the Green Bay Packers, but nothing was more important for the team than finding out if Jordan Love is a true franchise quarterback or not. And even if the team in general hasn't been stable, Love has shown a relatively linear progress. At this […]
This has been a season full of ups and downs for the Green Bay Packers, but nothing was more important for the team than finding out if Jordan Love is a true franchise quarterback or not. And even if the team in general hasn't been stable, Love has shown a relatively linear progress. At this stage of his career, you couldn't ask for much more.
Since week 9, Jordan Love has been third in EPA+CPOE composite. It's a combination of metrics that show how efficient the offense is, and how precise the quarterback has been trying to isolate the player from his environment. He is just behind Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott, two MVP candidates.
Love is fourth in EPA/play, eighth in success rate, and fourth in completion percentage over expectation over this period.
But it's not just the tangible aspects of the game. After the win over the Carolina Panthers, where the offense scored 33 points, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur mentioned how Love has grown as a processor.
"Jordan did an outstanding job," LaFleur said. "One cool moment was when we were at the goal line in the first half, and he audibled to that quarterback sneak. That shows kind of the level of growth that he's had in his game. Just to see that and take advantage of it, that was a pretty cool moment."
Impressive stats
Over his first season as a starting quarterback, Jordan Love has put up some promising numbers.
On Sunday, for instance, Love reached seven games with multiple passing touchdowns and no interceptions. No NFL quarterback has more than that this season. He's had multiple TD passes and no INTs, plus a passer rating over 100.0 in five of the last six games.
Over the last five games, Love's had a 68.8% completion percentage — do you remember who his completion percentage was a concern earlier this season?
Jordan Love is on pace to finish the season with 4,065 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns and 12 interceptions. But it has been more impressive in the second half of the season. Extrapolating Love's last five games to a full 17-game season, that would mean 4,620 passing yards, 37 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, with a 108.2 passer rating.
Challenges ahead
In order to have a realistic shot at making the playoffs, the Packers have to win out. They face two NFC North rivals over the next two weeks, at the Minnesota Vikings and versus the Chicago Bears. And if before the season you could argue that these were easy matchups for an offense, both teams have shown growth.
Getting the same sample size from Jordan Love's jump (since week 9), the Vikings are 12th in EPA/play ans seventh in success rate. It's even more impressive against the pass, where they are 10th in dropback EPA. The crazy Brian Flores style, leading the league in both blitz rate and drop eight rate, has made quarterbacks' lives miserable around the NFL.
The situation might get even more complicated in week 18, because Matt Eberflus has been able to overcome early season struggles to put the Chicago Bears defense in position to be one of the best in football. Since week 9, the Bears are second in EPA/play and dropback EPA, and fifth in success rate.
"We know what's in front of us and we know what we're capable of," Love said after the game on Sunday.
Especially considering how poorly the Packers defense has performed, Jordan Love will have two big tasks ahead. And the Packers need him to play at a high level to have a chance.
Under imperfect circumstances, Jordan Love has been beyond impressive
Packers QB has played at a high level
