The disaster scenario for the Colts

For the most part, the Indianapolis Colts control their destiny towards the AFC playoffs.  But there is one disaster scenario where the Colts win out and still don't reach the postseason.  As I said above, in nearly every scenario, the Colts are in the playoffs if they win out. But there is one unfortunate way […]

Destin Adams — NFL News Writer
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Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew II (10) sits on the bench during the fourth quarter Sunday, Dec. 24, 2023, during a game against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Robert Scheer/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

For the most part, the Indianapolis Colts control their destiny towards the AFC playoffs. 

But there is one disaster scenario where the Colts win out and still don't reach the postseason. 

As I said above, in nearly every scenario, the Colts are in the playoffs if they win out. But there is one unfortunate way that the Colts can end with ten wins and yet still be on the outside looking in. 

For this horror to become a reality, four things have to happen on top of the Colts winning out: 

Colts win out: 

Remaining Schedule:

  • Week 17: Vs. Las Vegas Raiders
  • Week 18: Vs. Houston Texans

For any of below to even matter, the Colts must first handle their own business and win out, which isn't going to be a cakewalk by any means. They have the Raiders this week, and they are coming off their biggest win of the season as they knocked the Kansas City Chiefs off in Arrowhead. Then, they will have a crucial AFC South matchup with the Texans, who are also in the hunt for a playoff spot themselves. 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars win out

Remaining Schedule: 

  • Week 17: Vs. Carolina Panthers
  • Week 18: @ Tennessee Titans 

The Jaguars winning out hurts the Colts in multiple ways, as it ends their chances of winning the AFC South. But with their two remaining games being against two teams with double-digit losses on the year, the Panthers and the Titans, it looks very likely. 

2. Buffalo Bills win out

Remaining Schedule: 

  • Week 17: Vs. New England Patriots 
  • Week 18: @ Miami Dolphins 

The Bills have a lot to play for after their season started so poorly. They've battled all the way back into the AFC playoff picture, and if they win out, they are simply in. And with them still having a slight chance at the AFC East, they have a lot to play for. That Week 18 game has the opportunity to be a winner gets the division, and the loser is sent to the wildcard. 

3. Pittsburgh Steelers win one and lose 1

Remaining Schedule:

  • Week 17: @ Seattle Seahawks
  • Week 18: @ Baltimore Ravens

This one is pretty unique, as the Colts need the Steelers to either lose out or win out. With two solid teams left on their schedule, the most likely scenario to root for here is that the Steelers lose out. Unlike the others listed here, this one will be alive heading into Week 18, regardless of the outcome of Week 17. 

4. Cincinnati Bengals win out

Remaining Schedule: 

  • Week 17: @ Kansas City Chiefs
  • Week 18: Vs. Cleveland Browns 

This one feels like the saving grace for the Colts, as it seems the least likely to happen. The Bengals are heading into Arrowhead to play a very motivated Chiefs team coming off a disastrous Week 17 loss to the Raiders. And if they can pull off that upset, they will head into Week 18 against the red-hot Browns, who remain alive for the AFC North crown. 

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