ESPN's way-too-early 2025 NFL Draft order prediction puts Bengals right back on track
After finishing the 2023 season with a 9-8 record, the Cincinnati Bengals barely missed the playoffs and ended up with the 18th overall pick in 2024 NFL Draft.It was a notable change in approaching the draft compared to recent years when the Bengals selected 31st and 28th overall in the 2022 and 2023 drafts, respectively. […]
After finishing the 2023 season with a 9-8 record, the Cincinnati Bengals barely missed the playoffs and ended up with the 18th overall pick in 2024 NFL Draft.
It was a notable change in approaching the draft compared to recent years when the Bengals selected 31st and 28th overall in the 2022 and 2023 drafts, respectively. Those two picks followed deep trips into the postseason.
The Bengals would prefer to select near the bottom of the draft order next year, and ESPN foresees that happening.
ESPN's Football Power Index, which simulated the season 10,000 times based on how the model rates individual teams and game locations, had the Bengals finishing with an average draft position of 22.5, which is tied for the Buffalo Bills.
"The FPI projects the draft order by simulating the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and each team's average draft position in the simulations."
Cincinnati's average draft position puts them at 25th in the projected 2025 order, with only the Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, and San Francisco 49ers behind them.
The team that ends up with the 25th overall pick first made it to the Divisional Round in the playoffs.
About five teams who miss the playoffs one year end up making it the following season. ESPN's FPI seems to be on the side that the Bengals will be a part of that group in 2024.
25th in the draft order is an improvement from 18th, but still a ways away from the ultimate goal of earning the 32nd pick by winning the Super Bowl.
Getting to the dance is just the first step. The numbers say it's likely for the Bengals this year.
Bengals fall behind two contending AFC teams in a ranking that should have them much higher
Feels very low for them.
