What ESPN analytics says the Packers will do in the NFL draft

The NFL Draft is impossible to perfectly predict or project. However, history and trends help us get more pre-draft information and limit the scope of realistic outcomes. ESPN, for instance, created a fun and useful analytics tool, and it's possible to see which draft prospects are more likely than not to be available at each pick, […]

Wendell Ferreira — NFL News Writer
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Tyler Guyton
NATHAN J. FISH/THE OKLAHOMAN-USA TODAY NETWORK

The NFL Draft is impossible to perfectly predict or project. However, history and trends help us get more pre-draft information and limit the scope of realistic outcomes.

ESPN, for instance, created a fun and useful analytics tool, and it's possible to see which draft prospects are more likely than not to be available at each pick, but also which players are favored to be selected at each position based on scouting data and team needs.

Below, let's see who the Packers are likely to select in each of their five day 1 and day 2 picks.

Pick 25

  • OT Tyler Guyton (TCU)
  • OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)
  • DB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)

Offensive line is the likeliest outcome for the Packers with their first-round pick, even though defensive back Cooper DeJean is also an intriguing option if he's available.

The list of players more likely than not to be available at 25 include Graham Barton, Tyler Guyton, Michael Penix, Cooper DeJean, JerZhan Newton, Darius Robinson, Jackson Powers-Johnson, Chop Robinson, Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Adonai Mitchell, and Kool-Aid McKinstry.

Pick 41

  • LB Edgerrin Cooper (Texas A&M)
  • LB Payton Wilson (NC State)
  • CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (Missouri)

With the second-round pick from the New York Jets, off-ball linebacker is the most projectable scenario, since the Packers have a huge need at the position and this is the area of the draft where the best linebacker prospects are projected. Less athletic defensive backs start to become an option as well.

Pick 58

  • OT Patrick Paul (Houston)
  • S Javon Bullard (Georgia)
  • OT Kingsley Suamataia (BYU)

If the Packers don't take an offensive tackle earlier, the probability of a second-round lineman is higher — even though they might very well take one per round here. Patrick Paul and Kingsley Suamataia are more developmental types than day 1 starters, but the Packers have flexibility to do that since they have Zach Tom and Rasheed Walker.

Pick 88

  • LB Junior Colson (Michigan)
  • LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (Clemson)
  • S Kamren Kinchens (Miami)

Pick 91

  • LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (Clemson)
  • LB Junior Colson (Michigan)
  • S Kamren Kinchens (Miami)

The same players appear as the most likely options at 88 and 91 because the value of the picks is similar. As the picks go down, it’s more difficult to predict exactly what’s going to happen. Junior Colson is probably one of the best fits for Green Bay in the class, since he is a smart, active middle linebacker who would be a good complement to Quay Walker’s style.

Kamren Kinchens was a fan favorite in the beginning of the pre-draft process, but his atrocious athletic profile makes it less likely that the Packers would have any kind of real interest.

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