Unless the New York Giants are unexpectedly able to reach an extension before Wednesday, running back Saquon Barkley will be a free agent as the team opted not to apply a second consecutive franchise tag on the former second overall pick. Now, Barkley will have his first opportunity to test the market — and one of the interested teams should be the Green Bay Packers.

Running back situation

Over the last few years, the Packers offense has been much, much worse when Aaron Jones is not on the field, and now AJ Dillon is slated to be a free agent. According to Tom Silverstein, the backup is not expected to be re-signed.

So, instead of trying to retread something that hasn't worked as well as the Packers hoped, they could add Barkley to create the best running back duo in football.

Beyond Aaron Jones, the Packers don’t have a clear option at the moment. Emanuel Wilson is an exclusive-rights free agent and should be back, and the team also signed Ellis Merriweather to a futures deal after he finished last season on the practice squad. Neither of these players are top-level options, though.

Previous interest

Last season, the Packers showed an inclination to add another running back. The team explored a potential trade for Jonathan Taylor, but the Indianapolis Colts asked for Christian Watson in the compensation package.

Closer to the trade deadline, according to Fox’ Jay Glazer, the Packers made calls that might have included an interest in Derrick Henry and, guess who, Saquon Barkley.

"There are a lot of teams that are in the running back market," Glazer said on TV right before the deadline. "Baltimore, Cleveland. Green Bay is still in the running back market as well. Dallas hasn't been calling around."

So if the Packers were interested in adding an established running back five months ago, there’s no reason to change that stance now.

Contract projection

As a former second overall pick and after playing under the fifth-year option in 2022 and the franchise tag in 2023, Saquon Barkley has made more money than the usual player coming off his rookie contract. Over his first six years in the NFL, Barkley has earned $48.692 million.

Nonetheless, he's already 27 years old, so this is probably his best chance to sign a big-time contract. But the running back market is not that hot, and with several options in free agency, it's hard to see any team willing to go anywhere closer to the Christian McCaffrey deal, for instance.

According to the A to Z Sports' top 105 free agent list, Barkley is expected to receive a very reasonable contract from a team's perspective.

• Projected Contract: 3 years, $31.5 million, $10.5M APY, $15M GTD
• Year One Cap Hit: $4.2 million

Free agent profile: Once considered a generational prospect at running back, injuries have reduced his effectiveness to where Barley will no longer be considered a player who can reset his positional market. Still, Barkley is one of the best in the league at his position and a true three-down back.

Recent performance

There's a narrative that Saquon is an injury-prone running back, but that's not true whatsoever. He missed most of the 2020 season with a torn ACL, but other than that, he's never played fewer than 13 games per year.

And excluding the 2020 season, Barkley had more than 1,200 scrimmage yards in four out of five seasons. Last year, he produced 962 rushing yards and 280 receiving yards even in a bad offensive situation in New York. When the Giants played better in 2022, Barkley had 1,650 scrimmage yards, being one of the big responsibles for the playoff spot.

Circumstances

Usually, it's tough to pay a running back. It's even more troubling to pay two at the same time, and the Packers already have Aaron Jones slated to make $12 million in 2024.

However, this is a unique situation. First, the team management is already working to reduce Jones' number. Moreover, the Packers have an inexpensive group of wide receivers, tight ends, and offensive linemen, which opens the door for bigger investments elsewhere.

Barkley's catching ability and home run propensity would be excellent characteristics to add to this young offense, and the Packers could limit Aaron Jones' workload, extending his career.

At 27, Saquon Barkley could easily play out his three-year contract performing at a high level.

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