Chiefs vs. Lions: Three Bold Predictions
The 2023 NFL season is here and kicking it off with an intriguing matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions is a great way to start what should be another fun year. So, let's skip out on the small talk and filler and dive straight into three bold predictions for Thursday night's opener. […]
The 2023 NFL season is here and kicking it off with an intriguing matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions is a great way to start what should be another fun year.
So, let's skip out on the small talk and filler and dive straight into three bold predictions for Thursday night's opener.
Patrick Mahomes keeps his Week 1 streak of 3+ passing TDs alive
By now, we've all probably seen Mahomes' opening day stats. Just in case you haven't, here they are:
Not only are those impressive very impressive stats, Mahomes is the only quarterback in NFL history to throw at least three passing touchdowns in five consecutive season-openers.
That's right. Not even Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Aaron Rodgers or Joe Namath did that. And all of those guys, except Namath, threw for (or have thrown for) at least three touchdowns or more in five season openers – they just weren't in a consecutive manner.
What makes this prediction bold is the fact that Travis Kelce isn't likely to play against the Lions after hyperextending his knee in practice. He's clearly a major factor in the offense and his presence helps open up opportunities for other skill players to make plays. The Chiefs are undoubtedly missing a vital cog if Kelce doesn't go.
We have seen Mahomes without Kelce one time – 2021 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. And guess what? Mahomes completed 76% of his passes and threw three touchdown passes in a 36-10 rout.
I think he's going to be just fine. As a matter of fact, I'll double down and say Mahomes throws four touchdown passes, which will also break the current tie with Marino for the most games with four passing touchdowns (17) in the first seven seasons of a career.
Chiefs end up with more sacks than Lions
The Chiefs are likely to be without Kelce on the offensive side of the ball and they're also likely to be without Chris Jones, their best defensive player, on the defensive side of the ball. That's obviously not a great recipe for success on opening night.
But Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a master at scheming up pressure and should have his dogs ready to hunt on Thursday night. Even without Jones, the pass rush should get to Jared Goff.
It won't be easy by any means, however. The Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and Goff is one of the best at avoiding sacks. In fact, his 12.3% pressure-to-sack conversion rate was second to Mahomes (10.8%) in 2022, per Pro Football Focus.
The Lions also like to blitz and they're pretty good at it, too. Per Pro Football Reference, Detroit blitzed opposing offenses 31.2% of the time, which was good for seventh-most in 2022. They finished with the ninth-best pressure rate (23.2%), as well as the second-highest hurry rate (8.8%), as a result. So, they're going to try and create opportunities to take down Mahomes.
But the Chiefs offensive line is no slouch of its own and it should be a better unit than it was last year after the additions of Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith. Plus, as noted above, Mahomes is a master at avoiding sacks, which will only help.
Sure, the Chiefs may not have their best pass rusher for this game, but that won't stop them from piling up more sacks than the Lions. Even if it is just a half-sack margin.
Chiefs win by double-digits
The Lions are in a good spot heading into 2023 and there's a lot to like about this team, but not many people are discussing just how awful Goff was on the road last year.
Below are his home/road splits from 2022:
Goff's best road game came against the Carolina Panthers, but the final stat line is deceiving. He led the offense to six points on the first drive, but proceeded to complete 7-of-12 attempts for just 78-yards until about 6:00 left in the third quarter. Down 31-7 by then, Goff got hot and eventually completed 14-of-24 passes for 218-yards and two touchdowns over the final 21 minutes of the game to pad his stat line.
He also lost a crucial fumble at the Panthers 8 during the poor stretch of play. Overall, it was not a good day for the veteran signal-caller and that loss is what killed the Lions' playoff hopes.
With all that being said, Goff threw just three touchdowns over the course of seven road games.
It's hard to see Goff suddenly waking up in the hostile environment that will be Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday night. And, as a result, the Chiefs will handle the Lions just fine.
Final injury report for Chiefs vs. Lions, Week 1
The final injury report for the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions are in.
Featured image via Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
