David Poile needs to rip the band-aid and start selling now
The Nashville Predators have only 31 more games to do something they have not done through their first 51 games: be in a position to make the playoffs. A 5-1 beatdown loss to Vegas last Tuesday and a dismal 4-2 loss at home to Arizona last night, sandwiched around a narrow 2-1 win over Philadelphia […]
The Nashville Predators have only 31 more games to do something they have not done through their first 51 games: be in a position to make the playoffs.
A 5-1 beatdown loss to Vegas last Tuesday and a dismal 4-2 loss at home to Arizona last night, sandwiched around a narrow 2-1 win over Philadelphia on Saturday, and the Preds are nowhere close to the pace they need to meet in their supposedly urgent race for the playoffs.
Entering the final 34 games, the Preds needed around 44 points to get to 98 on the season, a position which would almost guarantee them a playoff spot. They now have gained only two points in three games, losing to one team they should have beaten at home, and looking completely outmatched in a game where they should have at least been competitive.
Time is not running out… it's pretty much out at this point.
Especially when you look at the road ahead.
First of all, they have Boston coming into town on Thursday. What have the Bruins done so far this season? The lead the league in wins (39), points (83), and goal differential (+80), plus they have nine players with double-digit goals so far. They are an absolute machine and likely the favorite to win the Stanley Cup this year.
Not only do the Predators need to win as many games as possible to make up for a bad loss on Monday, they need to do so against the best team in the NHL.
Following that, the Preds play several teams they should beat. Teams like Vancouver, San Jose, Chicago, and, oh by the way, Arizona again, this time on the road.
And they must do all of that without their best offensive player, Filip Forsberg, who is out with an upper body injury (likely a concussion) for some time.
But even if they do that? They have an insane stretch of games after the trade deadline that could prove costly:
The problem is, all of those games come after the trade dealdline (March 3rd). This essentially marks the trade deadline as a "do or die" moment for Poile and the current roster.
David Poile shows trade deadline hand
David Poile went on local radio this morning and admitted that the team "will not be buyers" at the deadline. He also said "if things don't change more favorably, we certainly could be a seller."
Poile admitting that the team will not be buying at the deadline may seem obvious to most fans (and to myself), but it's an important comment for Poile to make. First, it shows he does not trust the central core of this team to be just "one or two pieces away" from being a playoff team. Or even that they need to go buy a big piece (Timo Meier, for example) to shake things up significantly in season.
Poile has basically told us: it's either this team as it currently sits or we are sellers.
The problem is, this team might be good enough to win a few games against the easy teams ahead in the next few weeks. They could certainly beat San Jose, Vancouver, and Chicago. I even like their chances to beat Arizona the second time around.
But the final stretch after the trade deadline? It's too much.
They won't go on a stretch where they beat teams like Dallas, Boston, Vegas, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg, Toronto, and Seattle more often than they lose to them.
Unrealistic. Pipe-dream. Fool's gold.
David Poile needs to rip the band-aid and start selling. The roster as it stands doesn't have what it takes to win at the level it needs to in order to make up for the deficit in the standings. Certain pieces will keep producing at a high level. Juuse Saros, Roman Josi, and Filip Forsberg when he returns, will keep the Nashville Predators somewhat competitive.
But not enough to make the playoffs.
Selling is the only option… but who?
So who can David Poile sell at this point? There are a number of options.
Dante Fabbro has been rumored among trade whispers. His $2.4 million qualifying offer looms large and it might make more sense to get trade capital out of his value. Mikael Granlund, though his trade value is very low, could get a decent return, plus you'd be out of his $5 million cap hit for the next two seasons. Several teams might be interested in Nino Niederreiter, a scoring winger who could boost a contender's offensive punch.
But ultimately, unless there is a contractual reason they cannot be traded (e.g., Josi, McDongah, and Forsberg all have no move and no trade clauses), every name should be on the table.
David Poile needs to commit and start selling. It sounds like he might be leaning that direction anyway, but why delay? Contending teams will be on the hunt for pieces, and prices can climb quickly. Capitalizing on other team's urgency in the arms race is important and essential for rebuilding as quickly as possible.
Poile has given the roster time to shake out. He's been respectfully patient with John Hynes and the coaching staff to find combinations that work, an under appreciated aspect of Poile's general managing career. But the Preds are likely past the point of no return and there may be no fixing this mess.
It's time to do something about it.
— Featured image via Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports —
