Why the Titans should avoid trading for the number one pick
With the Chicago Bears, a team that does not have a need at quarterback, holding the number one overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, speculation and potential trade packages are beginning to take over the NFL rumor mill. The Tennessee Titans are the latest team to have rumored interest in trading for Chicago's top […]
With the Chicago Bears, a team that does not have a need at quarterback, holding the number one overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, speculation and potential trade packages are beginning to take over the NFL rumor mill. The Tennessee Titans are the latest team to have rumored interest in trading for Chicago's top pick.
It's no secret that the Titans' future at quarterback is uncertain. Ryan Tannehill is still a capable starter, but turning 35 in July and coming off of an ankle surgery, it's awfully tempting to take the $17.8 million in cap savings the Titans' would get from cutting him and invest it elsewhere. Tennessee has a new GM in Ran Carthon and seemingly no current long-term plans for the most important position in the sport.
Given that, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the Titans are a rumored landing spot for the number one pick. A number of Bears Twitter pages first started these rumors after reporting that the Titans had allegedly made an offer to Chicago.
The validity of these rumors is highly questionable, but it didn't stop the NFL world from spreading it all over the internet. We're talking Bryce Young jersey swaps, trending on Twitter, the whole nine yards.
Titans fans, who can blame you? Making a move for the first overall pick and selecting one of the NFL's next great young quarterbacks would ignite an energy within the fanbase that hasn't existed since Tennessee selected Marcus Mariota second overall in the 2015 NFL Draft (or maybe the 2019 AFC Divisional Round win). The 2022 collapse may have left you feeling a bit apathetic towards the team, and you deserve a move to win back your interest!
But none of that means trading for the first overall pick is a good idea. In my opinion, moving up to number one would come at a price far too steep to make the move worth it, and the Titans are better off staying put at 11th overall.
Mortgaging the Future
In moving up in a trade with Chicago, the Titans would be mortgaging their future and placing all of their eggs in one basket. The price to jump 10 spots, from 11 to one, will be more expensive than I think most realize.
For reference, let's look back at the last time a team made a similar jump in the NFL Draft to acquire a quarterback.
In 2021, the San Francisco 49ers (with Ran Carthon on staff) traded up from the 12th overall pick to the third overall in a deal with the Miami Dolphins. San Francisco sent the 12th overall selection, a 2021 third-round pick and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023 to Miami for number three where they selected North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance.
That's a total of three first-round picks and one third-round pick to jump up nine spots and select the third quarterback off the board. Trading to number one and having your pick of the litter could come with it's own premium.
Chicago will also undoubtedly receive interest from a handful of others teams, including the division rival Colts and Texans, who both have the luxury of offering the Bears a top five pick in the return package should they get desperate. In an ideal world for the Bears, they stay within the top five, add some additional picks, and still select one of the premier defensive talents in the draft class. In order for Tennessee to outbid both Houston and Indianapolis, you're talking a bevy of future picks, and maybe even players.
ESPN's Adam Schefter has already gone on the record of saying the Bears would receive "unbelievable offers" for their selection and that the pick would be "worth a small fortune."
Even if the deal matches that of San Francisco and Miami, is three first-round picks and a third-round pick worth it given the holes Tennessee has on the current roster? What about if Chicago was asking for Jeffery Simmons to make for them missing out on a premier defensive talent at the top of the draft?
These are real possibilities, but not trades the Titans should consider.
The best thing Tennessee can do right now is find a way to maximize their current window with Derrick Henry and Jeffery Simmons on their roster. If that means another year of Ryan Tannehill and surrounding him with better talent in 2023, so be it. If that means letting Tannehill go and finding another veteran quarterback on the free agent or trade market, okay. But rushing into drafting a QB at first overall in 2023 shouldn't be the answer.
There are too many question marks on the roster, and losing three or more years of first round draft picks is not a road I would go down right now.
Image Gary Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
