Pro Football Focus predicted landing spots for some of the top NFL free agents this past week and they think the Kansas City Chiefs will replace a free agent wide receiver with a three-time Pro Bowler.

PFF's Brad Spielberger predicted that JuJu Smith-Schuster will exit Kansas City after just one season and sign with the Carolina Panthers this offseason.

Smith-Schuster signed a one-year deal with the Chiefs ahead of the 2022 season.

The former USC wide receiver had a solid season in Kansas City, catching 78 passes for 933 yards and three touchdowns. The idea is that Carolina, a team that desperately needs wide receiver help, would offer Smith-Schuster a more lucrative deal than the Chiefs.

Spielberger has Kansas City replacing Smith-Schuster by signing three-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Michael Thomas.

(The New Orleans Saints would have to release Thomas for this scenario to come to fruition, a possibility given his injury history. A large dead cap hit, however, could play a factor in this decision.)

He predicts that the Chiefs will essentially give Thomas the same deal they gave Smith-Schuster last offseason.

From PFF:

Thomas could take a page out of the notebook of JuJu Smith-Schuster, who was able to capitalize on the brilliance of the Kansas City Chiefs‘ offense and get his career back on track after playing just five games in 2021. Thomas appeared in just three contests in 2022 but flashed his elite ability. His 77.4 receiving grade ranked 12th among wide receivers, his three touchdown receptions tied for second and his eight contested catches were the most in the NFL through the first three weeks.

Older Thomas stats almost seem unfair to highlight given how long it has been since he was a dominant force, but it’s clear that he can still be an upper-echelon wide receiver when healthy. While injuries are never a good thing, Thomas has avoided taking many big hits over the past few years, which could serve him well over the next few years.

Here, in the absence of any team stepping up with a significant multi-year offer, the Chiefs take a flier on Thomas and he makes the best decision to max out his 2023 campaign before re-entering free agency.

This could be a high-upside signing for the Chiefs.

Adding Thomas to the roster would come with a lot of uncertainty — he's only played 10 games over the last three seasons. The former Ohio State wide receiver suffered a high ankle sprain in 2020 that caused him to miss time. Thomas then missed the entire 2021 season after undergoing ankle surgery. This past season, Thomas played in just three games due to a foot injury.

When Thomas is on the field, he's one of the best players in the NFL.

In 2019 — the last time Thomas played a full season — he caught 149 passes for 1,725 yards and nine touchdowns.

Thomas turns 30 in March, so he still has time to turn his career around. But he has to prove he can stay healthy. An incentive-laden deal could be a smart move for both sides. If Thomas plays, he can earn some serious cash. If he doesn't, then Kansas City would only be out his base salary.

If Thomas is looking to prove himself after three lost seasons, signing with the Cheifs would be his best bet. Playing alongside Patrick Mahomes is the best possible scenario for any free-agent wide receiver.

There's a lot of potential value in signing Thomas, but it comes with risk, too. But the right deal could make this the right move for the Chiefs.

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