Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator Tim Kelly spoke to the media for the first time since joining the team in a press conference conducted at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine on Tuesday.

Naturally, Kelly fielded questions about the Titans’ quarterback situation, his ideal style of offense, and what play calling aspects need to change after two seasons of underwhelming offensive production under former offensive coordinator Todd Downing.

While Kelly had the perfect stance on Tennessee’s need to play consistent and complete games, become more versatile, and approach things with an open mind, the 36-year-old play caller missed the mark on one major subject.

Kelly, either out of sincerity or respect to his predecessor, was firm on his belief that the Titans’ offense was not predictable last season under Todd Downing.

“I didn't think we were predictable last year,” Kelly told the media. “I think there were some times where certain games, certain things, weather, people you have available, things along those lines…There are a lot of elements that go into predictability or perceived predictability. So, I wouldn’t say that we were predictable last year.”

As pointed out by Paul Kuharsky in his follow up question to Kelly, Titans’ head coach Mike Vrabel certainly seemed to think they were predictable when he moved on from Downing this offseason. One of the things that Vrabel highlighted as being a benefit of bringing Kelly in as OC was the ability to be less predictable while working out of the same formations.

“I didn’t. Like I said, there are a lot of things that go into calling a game,” said Kelly when asked if he thought the Titans’ habit of running on first down got predictable.

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THE FACTS

The fact of the matter is, the Titans were absolutely a predictable offense last season. Play calling may not have been the only contributing factor to the team’s offensive struggles, but suggesting that things were “not predictable” is both out of touch with the Titans’ fanbase and not statistically supported.

In two seasons with Todd Downing at offensive coordinator, the Titans were dead last in early down passing frequency, dropping back on just 43.8 percent of snaps. Even with the Titans' offense incorporating a high-volume of rushing attempts and a legendary running back in the backfield, Tennessee is 29th in the NFL in rushing efficiency on early downs over the last two seasons (-0.134 EPA/play).

In other words, the Titans ran the ball on 1st and 2nd down more than any other team under Todd Downing, despite being one of the least efficient and least successful offenses at doing so.

Just looking at 2022 alone, over 25 percent of the Titans’ offensive series followed the “run-run-pass" play sequence. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry took 331 of his 349 carries on 1st or 2nd down and 215 touches (61.6 percent) on 1st & 10+.

Still not convinced? How about former Titan and current Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown saying he shared all of the Titans’ plays with his Eagles teammates before the two teams squared off in December?

"I gave every detail," Brown said on the Raw Room Podcast. "I gave every detail. I gave it all. I gave it all. They don’t change nothing. They don’t change nothing. I talked to one of the defensive guys and they say ‘What does this mean? What does this mean?’ I say, ‘Just give me the game film, I’ll tell you what all this means.’"

Kelly really missed the mark with this one. Titans fans are tired of the same old "run-run-pass" offense and the inability to adapt to defenses keen on stopping the run. It's really hard to look at the data and come to the conclusion that the Titans don't need to bring more balance and creativity into their offensive game plan. After all, Downing was fired for a reason.

New coaching hires are supposed to be about change, and while Kelly will undoubtedly look to make changes to Tennessee's scheme and turn things around for the Titans' offense, you don't get the fanbase to buy in by denying something so blatantly apparent.

Image via Tennessee Titans on YouTube