Polarizing football analytics website Pro Football Focus has egregious evaluation of Patrick Mahomes’ performance vs. Raiders
PFF needs to rethink this one.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs to four touchdowns and one field goal during the first five possessions of their matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday.
He became the first player in NFL history to throw for 200 yards and three touchdowns during a team’s first three drives of a game. Mahomes finished by completing 74 percent of his passes for 286 yards and three TDs en route to a 31-0 blowout over Las Vegas.
He accomplished all of that in just three quarters, as he was pulled for backup Gardner Minshew with the game well in hand. By most accounts, that’s a heck of a day for a QB to have. However, the folks at Pro Football Focus had a much different evaluation (H/T How ‘Bout Those CHIEFS).
Pro Football Focus egregiously gives Geno Smith a higher grade than Patrick Mahomes in Week 7
During the Raiders’ loss to Kansas City on Sunday, QB Geno Smith completed 10-16 passes for a lowly 67 yards and zero TDs. He led his offense into Chiefs’ territory just once on the day, but the drive still resulted in a punt.
Smith received a higher grade than Mahomes for simply not doing much of anything. In this writer’s opinion, that equates to a broken grading scale for PFF. Mahomes certainly got away with a few throws that bounced off the hands of the Raiders’ defenders, but a player shouldn’t be punished for what could have happened.
Analytics certainly has a place in football, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. When it comes to QBs specifically, analytics can’t evaluate things such as pre-snap protection adjustments, going through progressions, throwing mechanics, and gameplan schematics.
The most significant overall disconnect between analytics and real football is that players sometimes have roles they have to execute that doesn’t require them making a play. Intent can’t always be properly diagnosed, leading to misguided grading.
At the end of the day, NFL coaches know how to toe the line between what they see on tape and analytics. As for Mahomes, he is the hottest QB in the league at the moment and is firmly in contention to earn the third MVP award of his career.
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