Bucs-Saints Preview: Baker Mayfield’s rebound highlights top storylines on offense
The Bucs offense receives a unique test when it takes on the Saints’ new, but same, defense.
Just like that, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are moving on from Monday night’s disappointing loss to the Detroit Lions and now have full attention focused on the NFC South rival New Orleans Saints.
The Saints are currently 1-6 under first-year head coach Kellen Moore, but it’s never a good idea to overlook a divisional opponent in the NFL. Especially when including the history between these two teams.
Even though the Bucs are 4.5-point road favorites, it should be an interesting game as we don’t know exactly what to fully expect from a Saints team that is still figuring things out. Regardless, I looped in fellow Bucs writer Craig Smith and A to Z New Orleans writer Adam Holt to break down the biggest storylines surrounding the Bucs offense heading into Week 8.
Can Baker Mayfield rebound against a struggling Saints pass defense?
Evan: Mayfield played his worst game of the 2025 season on Monday night. The Lions pressured him from start to finish, the defense constantly mixed up coverages, the receivers couldn’t separate, and he was inaccurate. It was a deadly mix of literally everything that could’ve gone wrong and it’s why the Bucs scored a season-low nine points.
The Saints’ pass defense is a different story, however. Outside Alontae Taylor, the corners have struggled. Per Pro Football Focus, Saints corners have given up eight passing touchdowns on the year, which is second-most behind the Indianapolis Colts’ nine. Mike Evans may be out of the picture, but the Bucs still have Emeka Egbuka, Sterling Shepard, and an ascending Tez Johnson to take on Taylor and Co.
Here’s an interesting fact, too: Per FTN, the Saints run a lot of Cover 3. Well, as it turns out, the Bucs’ passing attack averages the second-best EPA per attempt against Cover 3. Combine all of this with a middling Saints pass rush and it certainly looks like Mayfield is set up for a solid rebound this week.
Adam: As Evan notes, the strength for Tampa in the passing game bodes well for their success against the usual plan for New Orleans’ defense. Saints DC Brandon Staley has to make adjustments in his plan to slow down Baker Mayfield’s passing game, or his team will be looking at a first quarter deficit that Kellen Moore recently mentioned they must avoid if they want any chance to win tight games down the stretch.
I’d expect a bit more ore aggression from New Orleans’ unit than in recent weeks to try to force major mistakes from the Bucs QB like we saw versus Detroit. With some of Mayfield’s best talent around him out with injury, Staley’s unit cannot play on their heels at any point Sunday afternoon.
Will the offensive line pick it up back, as well?
Evan: Todd Bowles specifically mentioned how the interior offensive line needs to be stouter after getting waxed against Detroit and that’ll be the key once again this week. If the interior pocket consistently collapses and forces baker outside then it’ll be another game where the offense can’t find rhythm and everyone saw what that looked like in Motown.
The Saints only have 14 sacks on the year and just three in their last three games (one of those is Jaxson Dart simply dropping the ball while scrambling, too). Very few of their sacks have been straight-up dominance by the defensive line. Most of them are coverage sacks where the back end help up long enough for the pass rush to get home.
The Saints’ front seven is pretty good against the run, but there’s not one guy who can wreck a game plan, so the Bucs offensive line should be able to get back on track this week.
Adam: Chase Young has been impressive so far since his return to the Saints defensive lineup. While he has just half of a sack in two games, his pressure percentage leads the team at 24%. He’s consistently getting close to the passer, but the entire defensive unit needs to improve in getting the quarterback down in those instances more often.
Bryan Bresee is another player to keep an eye on if you’re the Bucs. He’s taken another step forward in his development this season for the Saints and has had a knack for tipping passes or blowing up inside runs in the backfield so far this season. That interior for Tampa Bay needs to lock in on him early.
Craig: Well, I’m still trying to wrap my head around what I saw on Monday night. It was a perfect storm of issues for the Bucs. It started up front, as the Lions’ pass rush just dogged the Bucs’ front, with Pro Football Focus crediting the Lions with 40 pressures in 57 pass blocking snaps. That’s insane. The Bucs’ wideouts couldn’t get free against backup defensive backs, which is also weird and concerning. And when they did, Baker misfired high on multiple occasions.
However, as Evan noted, the Bucs match up well with what the Saints do defensively, and if Emeka Egbuka truly isn’t limited in any way still, then the passing game should be good enough to get back on track in New Orleans.
What does the passing attack look like without Mike Evans?
Evan: The Bucs will definitely have to change some aspects and thought processes of the offense now that Evans is basically out for the year, but as Bowles mentioned Monday, they’ve already been doing that the last few weeks so fortunately it’s not a brand new process nor concept.
Where the Bucs will struggle most is when defenses decide to man up and get physical. Evans was easily the best man-beater on the team and not having him around to win those 1-on-1s will remove a bit of explosiveness from the offense.
Egubka can play mostly the X and move around to the Z and F whenever it’s needed while Sterling Shepard and Tez Johnson can split Z and F duties. Josh Grizzard is going to have to get creative until Chris Godwin Jr. returns (and even then we won’t know how effective he’ll be) and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more Cade Otton now that the offensive line has some stability.
Adam: This matchup won’t have quite the same emotion with some veterans out of the lineup on both sides. Marshon Lattimore is struggling with the Washington Commanders, and Evans is dealing with those injuries. Accordingly, we won’t get to see that energetic rivalry once again – and that probably closes the book on it entirely.
Interested to see how rookie cornerback Quincy Riley fairs against Tampa this weekend, too. He’s impressed so far in his first couple pro starts, but Baker Mayfield will almost assuredly push the ball downfield against the rookie to test him. He’s gotta step up for New Orleans once again.
Craig: Well, the obvious is losing that deep perimeter threat and the 1-on-1 end zone matchups that Evans has dominated so well throughout his career. That’s not something that anyone on this team is capable of replicating, so they’re going to have to find another way to get it done.
As such, Josh Grizzard is going to have to do what both Dave Canales and Liam Coen did over the last two years: get creative. You’ve got a strong pass catching (really all around) running back in Rachaad White who was used extensively in the passing game in 2023. Cade Otton will likely continue to take a bump up in production. And Tez Johnson in space is a recipe for problems in the right spots. It’ll be different, but they’ve got the horses to still produce on offense.
How will Rachaad White do against a pretty good run defense?
Evan: On the surface, it may look like the Saints give up a lot of yards on the ground considering they allow an average of 129.4 yards per game, but the picture becomes a bit more clear when you break everything down.
For starters, that number drops to about 103 yards per game when eliminating designed QB runs and scrambles, per Sports Info Solutions. Then, there’s the fact the Saints have trailed, and by a decent amount, in most of their games. Opponents will naturally run the ball more because of that and rack up yardage.
And lastly, the important metrics reflect a solid run defense. Per SIS, the run defense is ninth in stuff rate, eighth in EPA/attempt allowed, and 13th in success rate allowed. The unit also doesn’t allow a ton of explosive runs to running backs.
The running game may need a lift from the passing attack on Sunday, as it faces a pretty underrated challenge.
Adam: The rush defense for New Orleans has certainly had some ups and downs, and part of that has been due to linebacker play. Pete Werner has dealt with more inconsistency than fans (and coaches, probably) would like so far this season. That’s why I am interested to see if rookie LB Danny Stutsman sees more playing time against Tampa. His snap count increased to nearly 25% last week against the Bears.
Not to mention, the Saints traded for Davon Godchaux in the offseason to improve their presence inside on the defensive line. That move hasn’t quite meshed yet, and the veteran DT has posted a 42.8 overall grade via Pro Football Focus. In order to slow down the passing game and any play action success, New Orleans have to be better upfront against the Buccaneers.
Craig: As Evan and Adam noted, the Saints are better than you’d think given their record against the run. Conversely, the Bucs have stuck with the run, but not gotten much out of it with Rachaad White taking over as the lead back with Bucky Irving out. In the last three weeks, he’s totaled 41 yards on 14 carries vs. Seattle, 65 yards on 17 carries against the 49ers, and just 38 yards on 10 carries on Monday in Detroit.
What I would like to see more of is getting White involved in the screen game, especially if the Saints try to get aggressive and generate pressure with more than four rushers. He’s a good all-around player, but White is particularly dangerous in that aspect of his game.
I’d like to see the Bucs come out throwing, get the passing game back in a rhythm, and work the running game off of that.
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