Texas has one last path to the College Football Playoff, but it requires total chaos
Texas fell to No. 17 after the Georgia loss, leaving its College Football Playoff hopes hanging by a thread. Here’s what the Longhorns need, why history is against them, and how much chaos it would take to keep their playoff dream alive.
Texas didn’t just lose to Georgia on Saturday. It watched its playoff hopes get buried under a 35–10 score that pushed the Longhorns down to No. 17, the highest-ranked three-loss team, but still miles from where a playoff contender sits in mid-November. The road defeat exposed the reality of Texas’ résumé: losses to No. 1 Ohio State and No. 4 Georgia are survivable for elite teams, but the collapse in Gainesville is the anchor that keeps Texas outside the top 12.
What Texas needs to make the CFP, and why it probably won’t happen
There’s another way to look at it. If Texas hadn’t been scheduled to play Ohio State in Columbus — if it had taken the safe Power Four opponent most playoff hopefuls pick — the Longhorns would be a two-loss team with wins over No. 8 Oklahoma and No. 14 Vanderbilt. That version of Texas would be comfortably inside the field. But now, sitting at 7-3, that hypothetical doesn’t matter.
So is there still a path? Only if everything breaks perfectly. Texas must win out, including a rivalry showdown with No. 3 Texas A&M, which would give the Longhorns three wins over top-15 teams — something no other bubble team can claim. A late-season Oregon slip to USC and an upset in Utah could also provide Texas with the springboard it needs.
In other words, Texas needs the sport to tilt on its axis. A full Saturday of scoreboards breaking in their favor. A weekend where every team ahead of them fails the eye test, while Texas passes it with ease. Without that, the door doesn’t just stay closed — it never even cracks open.
How likely is it that Texas will make the CFP?
Let’s be realistic. No 9–3 team has ever made the playoff, and oddsmakers aren’t exactly buying the miracle either: Texas sits at +1800 to make the CFP and -8000 to miss it.
There is a sliver of daylight, but it’s barely wide enough to see. The Longhorns can still fight their way into the conversation, but the sport has to turn upside down for Texas to squeeze through.
The path exists, but the odds say it’s almost impossible.
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