Emerging performance evidence shows the Packers are closer to legitimate contention than commonly believed
Green Bay can be really good next year.
Yes, it was an underwhelming 2025 season for the Green Bay Packers. The team was the NFC’s seventh seed once again and went one-and-done in the playoffs after a heartbreaking loss to the Chicago Bears.
Injuries piled up, including key pieces like Micah Parsons, Tucker Kraft, and Devonte Wyatt.
But after all, the team is not that far away from real contention. If healthy, the Packers can absolutely be in a good spot moving forward.
The profile Stat Acccount on X shows the net offensive success rate for each team in every game during the 2025 season.
Success rate is a play-by-play efficiency metric that measures how often an offense (or defense) achieves a successful outcome relative to down and distance. A play is typically defined as successful if it gains 40% of the yards to go on first down, 60% of the yards to go on second down, or converts third or fourth down. It’s the most effective metric to show how consistent a team is, not putting as much weight on explosive plays as EPA/play does.
Packers were efficient despite lack of dominant power
While the Packers failed to put teams away, they had a higher success rate than their opponents in 13 of the 17 regular-season games, plus in the playoff game against the Bears.
In the games where the Packers were outplayed, it was a marginal difference against the Carolina Panthers, that nightmare game with multiple injuries versus the Denver Broncos, a game with Malik Willis at quarterback (but real defensive struggles) against the Baltimore Ravens, and the Clayton Tune game full of backups against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18.
When the Packers had Jordan Love and Micah Parsons, even without Kraft and Wyatt, they were consistently the better team on the field, including games where the results were suboptimal after all.
Sure, closing out games is part of the issue, and that will be a challenge in 2026. But with their stars back, Green Bay will have all the potential to be amongst the contenders in the NFC.
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