Way too early NFL mock drafts for Minnesota Vikings prove they need to be taken with a grain of salt
NFL mock drafts are an excellent tool to utilize, but last year’s way too early ones in May show it matters when they are released.
Mock drafts have had a hard time the last two years predicting what the Minnesota Vikings will end up doing in the first round. While they were in lockstep with the organization in both 2023 and 2024 (with both selections), they were way off base the last two years in projecting who Kevin O’Connell‘s team would select.
| Year | Player | Selections | Percent | Ranking |
| 2023 | WR Jordan Addison | 52 | 9.54% | 2nd |
| 2024 | QB J.J. McCarthy | 273 | 32.57% | 1st |
| 2024 | EDGE Dallas Turner | 44 | 5.25% | 7th |
| 2025 | OG Donovan Jackson | 9 | 1.37% | 15th |
| 2026 | DT Caleb Banks | 16 | 2.74% | 7th |
Why all of a sudden has consensus lost track of what the Vikings are doing? Simple: they have been too focused on replacing Harrison Smith. Over the last two NFL Draft cycles, there has been a strong focus on replacing him without any evidence of the Vikings wanting to use significant capital to replace him. Five of the top six players consensus sent to the Vikings can be classified as a safety.
| Year | Player | Selections | Percent | Ranking |
| 2025 | S Nick Emmanwori | 130 | 19.82% | 1st |
| 2025 | S Malaki Starks | 95 | 14.48% | 2nd |
| 2025 | CB/S Jahdae Barron | 61 | 9.3% | 3rd |
| 2026 | S Dillon Thieneman | 238 | 40.75% | 1st |
| 2026 | S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren | 61 | 10.45% | 3rd |
Way-too-early mock drafts from last year were off on the Vikings
What is important here is that consensus has been rough in their predictions with the Vikings. It’s also important to know that the closer we get to the NFL Draft, mock drafts are historically more accurate. That’s something to keep in mind when we look at these way too early mock drafts.
Last year, the way-too-early mock drafts had quite a few interesting players sent to the Vikings. Let’s take a look at them
| Player | Selections | Round Selected |
| S Dillon Thieneman | 3 | 1 |
| DT Darrell Jackson Jr. | 1 | 4 |
| LB Suntarine Perkins | 1 | Returned to school |
| QB Garrett Nussmeier | 1 | 7 |
| CB Jermod McCoy | 1 | 4 |
| CB Mansoor Delane | 2 | 1 |
| CB Malik Muhammad | 2 | 4 |
| CB Jermaine Mathews Jr. | 1 | Returned to school |
| LB Sonny Styles | 1 | 1 |
| LB Harold Perkins Jr. | 1 | 6 |
| S Jalon Kilgore | 2 | 5 |
The positions the Vikings took in the too-early mock drafts were fascinating.
- Cornerback: 4
- Linebacker: 3
- Safety: 2
- Quarterback: 1
- Defensive tackle: 1
They did take a defensive tackle in the first round, but only one of the 16 analysts had the Vikings doing that. Just like in our mock draft tracker, Thieneman was the top option here. Plus, only three of the players on the list were selected in the top 100, with a fourth in McCoy, joining them if he didn’t have a brutal knee injury.
The core of these way-too-early mock drafts is to expose you to players the Vikings could be linked to over the next year. With how things have gone in recent years, take them with a grain of salt more than others.