It’s been a while since the Tennessee Titans had this problem entering a season where preseason stat projections feel like there aren’t enough yards to go around. Cam Ward’s 3,754 projection from ESPN’s Mike Clay would have been Top 10 in the NFL last year, but seems like not enough for the new offensive weaponry to share in 2026.

As Easton Freeze and I keep diving into Clay’s season projections the receiving distribution logjam is the most difficult to divvy up to a point where it feels like everyone involved gets their expected fair share.

We’re back again for another game of playing “OVER, UNDER or Just Right” for the Titans’ nine pass catchers Clay projected. Then, I’ll do our own math equation to open up a sliding scale for what we find to be the most ludicrous. LUDA.

Titans Wide Receiver Yards and Touchdown Projections, via Mike Clay:

Carnell Tate: 1,065 yards, 5 TDs

FREEZE: When you’re the fourth overall pick in the NFL draft, expectations are immediate in your rookie year. And while I expect Tate to finish the year as the top target on this team, I do think it could take some time for him and the rest of this pretty new offense to find their footing.

You can read more here about where this projection would put Carnell Tate in the grand scheme of the past decade for first round rookie receivers. If he cracks the 1000 yard mark, it would put him in some pretty rarified air. Ultimately, I’m going to take the under on this yardage projection, in part because of how many other mouths there are to feed on this offense. 800 or 900 total yards by the end of the year isn’t far-fetched, but getting to 1000 is something I would ultimately bet against.

I’ll take the over on his touchdowns, though! Perhaps this is overreacting to one day of OTAs the media has gotten to see so far, but I think his reliable hands and big catch radius will make him a popular target in the red zone. He’s also the best man coverage separator in this room, so whenever Cam Ward needs somebody to shake loose in the red area, I think he’ll be looking to Carnell Tate.

Projection take: UNDER yards, OVER TDs

Wan’Dale Robinson: 815 yards, 2 TDs

FREEZE: The #1 thing you cannot take away from Robinson based on the past couple of seasons is his ability to handle real volume. He was a league leader in terms of total targets the past couple of years, and I think that’s going to change some in Tennessee. Brian Daboll’s new offense has the luxury of an array of viable targets. I would bet on Robinson to lead this team in targets, but I think that number will be down from his past couple of seasons.

Because of that, I think these projected numbers are spot on. And ultimately, I care more about how much Wan’Dale can do to make Cam Ward better and more comfortable than I care about what his numbers look like at the end of the year. He’s the Costco hotdog of this operation: his contract is lofty, and he may be a loss-leader, but is he making the franchise player look good? If so, it’s good by me!

Projection take: “just right” for both

Calvin Ridley: 769 yards, 4 TDs

FREEZE: I have no idea what to do with Calvin Ridley, and I’m liable to go into the season in a couple of months having no idea what to do with Calvin Ridley. He truly is the icing on the cake of this offense. I’m glad he’s back, and I think he has an argument for being the most talented receiver in this room. But his inconsistency, injury history, and age make him very difficult to project.

So I’m going to cheat on this one just a little bit: if you can tell me he plays the majority of the season, I’m taking the over on these numbers. But if he’s a roller coaster dealing with missed more time, I think that a worst case scenario could look a lot like last season. The good news is that the Titans are now built to be able to not lean on him as a load bearing pillar of this unit. He’s the nitro boost of the 2026 Titans offense.

Projection take: couching to only be right

Chimere Dike: 74 yards, 1 TD & Elic Ayomanor: 38 yards, 0 TDs

FREEZE: We have officially entered crazy town. I can understand how Mike Clay‘s projection model would spit these numbers out, generally discrediting WR4 and WR5. But to claim Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike are going to combine for around 100 yards after combining for around 900 yards as rookies is completely ludicrous.

If I can find these lines to actually bet on somewhere, I am smashing the over for total yards on both of these players. I’m taking out payday loans, I’m getting second and third mortgages on the house. Unless these two miss them majority of the season, they are going over these numbers. In fact, I think it’s more likely that each of them surpasses these projections in a single catch than it is that they go under these projections.

Projection take: OVER ALL AROUND ARE WE SERIOUS?

Titans Tight End Yards and Touchdown Projections, via Mike Clay:

Gunnar Helm: 494 yards, 3 TDs

STANLEY: I think Helm grows tremendously in his second season, as I continue to be bullish on the Texas product. As a rookie Helm had 350 yards and two scores as TE2 behind Chig Okonkwo, now in Washington. Helm will be in the top four volume pass catching targets for Ward behind Tate, Robinson, and mixed in with Ridley.

I like the projection here. Helm’s TE1 promotion will also involve extra responsibilities in the run game, which could hold back a true explosion in receiving stats.

Projection take: “just right” on both

Daniel Bellinger: 111 yards, 0 TDs

STANLEY: Bellinger got a significant free agent contract, averaging $8 million per year, and a prediction I feel good about: some Titans fans will complain about it when he doesn’t add much in the passing game. Bellinger is tied to the formation trend offensive coordinator Brian Daboll flows with. Will the Titans be more three wide, one tight end (11 personnel) or will two tight ends (12 personnel) be on the field like we’ve seen in prior regimes?

Projection take: “just right” on both

Titans Running Back Yards and Touchdown Projections, via Mike Clay:

Tony Pollard: 180 yards, 0 TDs & Tyjae Spears: 333 yards, 2 TDs

STANLEY: These two Titans RBs combined for 470 yards and no scores last year. This number (511) would be a marginal upgrade and even more weighted towards Spears. Feels like a regular increase for inflation projection.

Projection take: “just right” on both

Receiving stat split logjam math sliding scale:

STANLEY: The logjam math issue presents itself when you think about individual player expectations based on what we believe their abilities to be. Sometimes, what the individuals are being paid adds another layer.

Tate being drafted SO HIGHLY makes you feel like the Titans have to justify it by giving him 120+ targets, like Clay projects. That needs to result in over 1,000 yards. Great. Logical.

Wan’Dale Robinson is being paid over $20 million in cash in 2026. Feed him the ball. He needs 100 targets. He knows Daboll’s system.

Calvin Ridley, while playing under a big pay cut in 2026, is still the most athletically gifted player in this group and has 1,000 yard seasons for three different NFL franchises.

Helm, is TE1 and has such natural pass catching ability. A strong rookie finish creates growth expectations.

If those are the four highest volume targets, great. Clay projects them to have over 3,100 yards combined. Meaning, adding 150 yards from Trubisky, only 800 yards remain for Dike, Ayomanor, the running backs and other tight ends.

Last season those two rookie WRs combined for 940 yards and 8 TDs on 89 catches. Of course, Tate, Robinson, and a healthy Ridley cut that down tremendously. But, Dike and Ayomanor are not scrubs. I think 450 combined yards in 2026 is realistic.

Okay, 450 yards left means Pollard and Spears take all of that. Bellinger is left out. This is where Clay’s math has Dike and Ayomanor combining for just over 100 yards. Where will the yards come from? The NFL isn’t producing 4,000 yard passing seasons like it was a few years ago. Two high safety defensive schemes are making offenses play more methodically.

Ridley’s 769 yards seem the most likely to shave away from. But the reality could be: this team doesn’t have a single 1,000 yard receiver because of how Ward’s weapons are spread out. In that case, you should feel robbed of less opportunities given to the biggest investments, Tate and Robinson.