The news recently has been dominated by former Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby and his ongoing legal battle centered around his gambling addiction. After a ruling in his favor in Lubbock County Court, Sorsby and his camp eventually decided to apply for the 2026 NFL Supplemental Draft. Assuming that the NFL agrees to put on the event, that would conclude Sorsby’s college career, which included 7,208 yards passing and 82 total touchdowns.

There has been very little disagreement about the talent that Sorsby brings to the table, but with so many pronounced question marks off the field, many are wondering just how high he will end up being drafted. The NFL has shown that they take issues around gambling very seriously, and even though Sorsby wasn’t under its jurisdiction during these instances, there is still some uneasiness due to the issues that led to his entry. Who knows if there is a suspension coming for him in the future when he is drafted.

NFL teams will now be tasked with the daunting task of grinding film and his character report in a very short amount of time. That is going to lead to many late nights, headaches, and honest conversations. Any time you are investing millions of dollars into a player, especially one with a checkered past, those conversations have to be had.

There have been many members of the media who have speculated that Sorsby could be the highest-drafted Supplemental player drafted in a very long time, but there is a lot that goes into those conversations. Along with fellow A to Z Sports football analyst Evan Winter, who covers the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the site, we debated and projected how high Sorsby could go at the end of July, assuming that the draft is held.

It was a very interesting conversation, with a ton of variables to consider.

Roberts’ take on Sorsby’s draft outlook

While there has been a lot first round conversation around Sorsby since the gambling issue became public, that projection was assuming he took a nice step with Texas Tech during the college football season and began to rise before the 2027 NFL Draft. Based on the film he put together during his two years at Cincinnati, the 6-3, 235-pound passer sits more as a really talented Day Two (rounds 2-3) quarterback who brings a ton of starter upside to the table. It is important to understand the baseline when beginning to project out a draft slot.

With those aforementioned legal issues still bringing some understandable questions, that most likely knocks him down a round or two. The most likely outlook for Sorsby would probably be more in the 3rd-4th round bucket, which feels like a more digestible investment based on the position that Sorsby finds himself in. You would think that an NFL team would be comfortable with that investment, especially with a talented quarterback.

Any talk that centers around a 1st or 2nd round investment just feels like too much. Sorsby is already going to have an abbreviated offseason, and with such a small evaluation window available, that would be a hefty price tag. That isn’t even discussing the potential for some punishment handed down from the NFL in the future. Sorsby is in a very tough spot, and the teams are in an even worse one.

At some point, Sorsby’s talent is worth a dart throw. If we are talking about somewhere hovering around an early Day Three (rounds 4-7) piece of capital, that feels more than fair. If any team ends up missing on a quarterback with a 3rd to 4th round selection, nobody is going to bat an eye.

Winter’s take on Sorsby’s draft outlook

Sorsby is the ultimate dice roll (pun totally intended), because whichever team that takes him won’t ever truly know if he’s past his issues until the time actually comes. Meaning, a lot of folks will always be waiting for the other shoe to drop no matter how many years have passed between now and then.

And like Ryan mentioned, there’s also a chance the NFL suspends Sorsby for a certain amount of time, just like it did with Terrelle Pryor back in 2011. The key with a suspension is Sorsby wouldn’t be allowed in the facility, nor could he contact coaches. That could set his development back, especially if he gets hit with a season-long punishment.

Plus, no team has an extra Round 2 pick to “sacrifice”, but that also doesn’t mean squads with multiple first-rounders like the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns would feel uncomfortable spending a second-rounder since they have extra Round 1 capital.

Regardless, those factors should drop Sorsby out of Round 2, however, I can see why teams would invest a second-rounder in the talented signal-caller.

And that’s because most teams probably expect Sorsby’s rookie year to be a redshirt year, outside of injury to a starter. Most second-round QBs don’t start their first year unless there’s a big injury. I mean, Drew Brees and Brett Favre are both second-round picks and two of the greatest to ever play the game and they didn’t start their first year in the NFL.

When it comes to a potential suspension, Sorsby might get off the hook there, too. That’s because the NFL didn’t punish New England Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte for his gambling issues that surfaced after he was drafted. The league set a precedent with that decision and to punish Sorsby would be a very inconsistent move.

So, with all that being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s taken in the second round.

But for me, personally, I’m not taking him until Round 3, at the earliest. A lot of Sorsby’s projections were based on a good 2027 season at Texas Tech, anyway. And when you throw in all the risk, it’s not worth spending anything more than that.