SEC Media Days is coming up, which always feels like the ‘unofficial start to college football’, so why do an experiment for a Tennessee Vols football season that truly has some big unknowns.

I plugged the Vols’ 2026 roster, schedule, and every narrative I could find into ChatGPT and asked it to simulate the entire season, the AI delivered something that felt less like science fiction and more like a documentary we’ve already lived through with Tennessee football.

We made sure to have it double check current rosters, scan articles from A to Z Sports and other outlets, and account for all the storylines surrounding Tennessee heading into the fall.

The result was a detailed, game-by-game breakdown with scores, stat lines, and season-long themes. Zach Ragan and I broke this down on the Big Orange Podcast to react to it all, and neither of us could argue too hard with what came back.

The game-by-game rundown has some gems and some gut punches that will unfortunately feel way too realistic.

Tennessee Vols 2026 season simulation

The preseason setup

ChatGPT’s starting assumptions:

• Faizon Brandon wins the quarterback job, but Josh Heupel waits until relatively late in camp to name him.
• George MacIntyre remains involved and plays meaningful early-season snaps.
• Tennessee’s offensive identity is initially built around DeSean Bishop, its offensive line and a deep receiving corps.
• The defense improves schematically under new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, but Tennessee’s uncertain edge-rushing production prevents it from immediately becoming an elite unit.

Game-by-game simulation

Week 1: Furman

Tennessee 45, Furman 10

Record: 1-0

Brandon starts, but Tennessee does not immediately unleash the entire passing game.

He finishes with approximately:

• 17-of-25 passing
• 228 yards
• Two touchdowns
• One interception

MacIntyre enters late in the third quarter and leads a scoring drive.

Bishop and the offensive line control the game, while Mike Matthews produces the first explosive reception of Tennessee’s season.

Main storyline: Brandon looks talented rather than polished.

Our Take: This checks out with what I would expect for this game breaking in a new quarterback. Tennessee doesn’t need to show much of anything to win, but needs to iron out what it feels best it can execute in all three phases before heading to Georgia Tech in Week 2. Hopefully both quarterbacks get to play as much as possible. – Austin Stanley

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Week 2: at Georgia Tech

Tennessee 31, Georgia Tech 27

Record: 2-0

This is Brandon’s first difficult college environment and his first four-quarter game.

Georgia Tech controls possession and creates problems with quarterback movement and misdirection. Tennessee trails 20-17 entering the fourth quarter.

Brandon responds with his first defining drive:

• Third-and-long completion to Braylon Staley
• Red-zone scramble
• Go-ahead touchdown pass to Ethan Davis

Georgia Tech gets one final possession, but Edwin Spillman ends the threat with a fourth-down stop.

Main storyline: Tennessee survives because Brandon responds well after making mistakes.

Our Take: Playing on the road in prime time against what should be a decent Georgia Tech team is a big early season test for the true freshman quarterback. And Brandon leading a fourth-quarter comeback to get the win will instantly show that Heupel made the right quarterback decision. – Zach Ragan

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Week 3: Kennesaw State

Tennessee 52, Kennesaw State 13

Record: 3-0

Brandon delivers his cleanest performance yet:

• 251 passing yards
• Three touchdowns
• No turnovers

MacIntyre plays nearly the entire fourth quarter.

Freshman receiver TK Keys scores his first Tennessee touchdown, while Javin Gordon demonstrates why he can provide an explosive change of pace behind Bishop.

Main storyline: The skill-position depth becomes apparent.

Our Take: This is exactly what Tennessee fans will want to see in this game — TK Keys stepping up and making some plays in just the Vols’ third game of the season. Tennessee won’t have experienced wide receiver depth in 2026, so it’ll be important for those young guys to get some quality reps in this game. It’s also a nice “tune-up” for Brandon before conference play starts. – Zach Ragan

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Week 4: Texas

Texas 30, Tennessee 23

Record: 3-1, 0-1 SEC

The noon Checker Neyland atmosphere is enormous, but Texas presents a major increase in defensive speed and disguise. Tennessee’s official designation for the game is Checker Neyland, and it will be the program’s first regular-season meeting. 

Tennessee stays close because its defense forces two field goals in the red zone.

Brandon, however, throws two interceptions:

• One against disguised zone coverage
• One while trying to create a late fourth-quarter play

Bishop rushes for more than 100 yards, but Tennessee struggles to generate consistent intermediate passing production.

Main storyline: Brandon’s talent is evident, but Texas exposes how much he still must learn.

Our Take: Sign me up all day long (as long as this is the first loss for the Vols this season). There’s no shame in losing on paper to Texas and Arch Manning with an explanation like this. The Longhorns are legit stacked and have high expectations. Tennessee battling this close, while being able to crack a 100-yard rusher would check some boxes. You gotta lose to grow, in my opinion, and this could be a big Brandon growth moment. – Austin Stanley

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Week 5: Auburn

Tennessee 34, Auburn 20

Record: 4-1, 1-1 SEC

Heupel responds by simplifying Brandon’s reads and increasing play-action usage.

Bishop carries the offense with 126 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Matthews produces a long touchdown off a deep-over route, and Tennessee’s defense records four sacks.

Christian Gass has his first major breakout performance.

Main storyline: Tennessee finds its freshman-quarterback formula.

Our Take: Tennessee will be favored in this game, and on paper they should definitely win. But this game will have a little extra spice since former Vols offensive coordinator Alex Golesh will be on the other sideline. Tennessee’s system has changed a bit since Golesh left Rocky Top after the 2022 season, but he knows how Heupel thinks. This could be an interesting chess match between the two coaches. Brandon getting his first SEC win in his second try solidifies that he’s the right guy, and Gass emerging as a pass-rushing threat is a nice development. – Zach Ragan

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Week 6: at Arkansas

Arkansas 27, Tennessee 24

Record: 4-2, 1-2 SEC

This becomes the frustrating loss that follows Tennessee throughout the season.

Arkansas:

• Controls the ball
• Converts several third-and-medium situations
• Limits Tennessee’s possessions
• Forces Brandon into an early turnover

Tennessee ties the game at 24 in the fourth quarter, but Arkansas drives for the winning field goal.

The Vols produce several pressures but cannot consistently finish them with sacks.

Main storyline: Tennessee’s lack of a proven elite edge rusher becomes costly.

Our Take: Unfortunately, ChatGPT knows all about the Vols’ struggles at Arkansas, and it literally takes all of us to our most notable gut-punch feeling losing to the Hogs on the road for the most random reasons, especially not being able to contain Arkansas’ QB. Damn. – Austin Stanley

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Week 7: Alabama

Tennessee 30, Alabama 27

Record: 5-2, 2-2 SEC

This is the best win of Tennessee’s season.

Rather than asking Brandon to carry the offense, Heupel uses:

• Tempo changes
• Designed quarterback runs
• Screens
• Play-action shots
• Multiple-tight-end formations

Brandon throws for 276 yards and accounts for three touchdowns.

Staley converts a crucial third-and-9 late in the fourth quarter. Cooper Ranvier makes the winning field goal after connecting on all three pressure kicks during Tennessee’s spring game. 

Arion Carter closes the game with a tackle for loss on Alabama’s final possession.

Main storyline: Brandon becomes Tennessee’s unquestioned quarterback.

Our Take: Beating Alabama as a true freshman (hasn’t been done since Erik Ainge in 2004) means that Brandon’s name will instantly be etched in Vols history. Beating Alabama at home also means that Tennessee will be alive in the College Football Playoff race, but there’s a long way to go before they can start thinking about seeding scenarios. – Zach Ragan

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Week 8: at South Carolina

South Carolina 28, Tennessee 21

Record: 5-3, 2-3 SEC

Tennessee cannot fully recover emotionally or physically from the Alabama game.

South Carolina pressures Brandon without blitzing heavily and prevents the Vols from producing consistent explosive plays.

Tennessee trails 21-7, rallies to tie the game and then allows a late touchdown drive.

Brandon’s final pass is intercepted while trying to force the ball to Matthews.

Main storyline: The Vols’ inconsistency keeps them from becoming a true SEC championship contender.

Our Take: Just crazy Hollywood drama here. Another familiar gut-punch, especially following another win over Alabama. Winning this game after a slow start to ride into the bye week 6-2 would have Tennessee fans feeling the playoffs in reach. Not anymore! Damn x2. – Austin Stanley

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Open date

The bye comes at an ideal time.

Tennessee uses it to:

• Reduce Brandon’s decision-making burden
• Reorganize its pass-protection calls
• Expand Gass’ role
• Create more opportunities for Mariyon Dye and Tyree Weathersby
• Establish a clearer secondary rotation

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Week 10: Kentucky

Tennessee 38, Kentucky 17

Record: 6-3, 3-3 SEC

This is Tennessee’s most complete SEC performance.

Brandon throws four touchdowns, including two to Staley. Bishop runs for 117 yards, and the defense forces three turnovers.

Edwin Spillman leads the team in tackles and produces an interception.

Spillman entered 2026 after recording 80 tackles in 2025, the most among SEC freshmen, giving Tennessee a proven young centerpiece at linebacker. 

Main storyline: The Vols appear dangerous again after the bye.

Our Take: This is more like it. Classic Tennessee win at Kentucky running away from the Wildcats and sending them all to basketball season. Four TDs from Brandon sets him up to join the long list of Vols who torched Kentucky. Great way to kick off November. – Austin Stanley

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Week 11: at Texas A&M

Texas A&M 26, Tennessee 17

Record: 6-4, 3-4 SEC

Kyle Field proves to be too difficult for a young quarterback and an offense that still occasionally struggles to function when the environment disrupts its communication.

Tennessee allows five sacks and commits two false-start penalties on important possessions.

The Vols are within 20-17 in the fourth quarter, but an A&M touchdown following a Brandon fumble seals the game.

At 6-4, Tennessee’s playoff hopes are effectively finished.

Main storyline: Tennessee is improving, but not yet mature enough to win consistently in the SEC’s most difficult road settings.

Our Take: It’s been 10 years since Josh Dobbs, Alvin Kamara and crew went into Kyle Field for a Top 10 battle with College GameDay on campus. That 2016 showdown ended in three overtimes and a young Austin leaving the LoneStar State missing half a tooth (IYKNK). More growing pains for the freshman QB, but he always seems to have Tennessee in high-leverage moments. Good for the future. Bad for the present. Playoff door shut. Damn x3. – Austin Stanley

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Week 12: LSU

Tennessee 35, LSU 31

Record: 7-4, 4-4 SEC

With the pressure of the playoff race diminished, Brandon plays his most aggressive game.

He finishes with:

• 318 passing yards
• Three passing touchdowns
• One rushing touchdown
• One interception

Matthews records his first 150-yard game of the season.

LSU takes a 31-28 lead late, but Brandon leads an 82-yard winning drive. The decisive play is a touchdown pass to Ethan Davis against pressure.

Main storyline: Brandon produces the performance that creates enormous 2027 expectations.

Our Take: At this point, the playoff is off the table, but I don’t think any Tennessee fan will care about that when Lane Kiffin and LSU visit Knoxville. Beating Kiffin in Knoxville will be cathartic for a fan base that’s had Kiffin on their most-hated list for the last 16 years. More importantly, though, Brandon leading the Vols on an 82-yard game-winning drive against a (presumably) playoff-contending LSU team will convince everyone that he’s a championship-caliber quarterback, and the excitement for 2027 will officially begin. – Zach Ragan

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Week 13: at Vanderbilt

Tennessee 37, Vanderbilt 24

Record: 8-4, 5-4 SEC

Vanderbilt keeps the game competitive through three quarters.

Tennessee eventually takes control through Bishop and the offensive line. Bishop surpasses 1,000 rushing yards, while the defense creates two fourth-quarter turnovers.

Brandon does not dominate statistically, but he avoids the damaging mistakes that hurt Tennessee earlier in the season.

Main storyline: Tennessee finishes with momentum rather than disappointment.

Our Take: Just win, baby. That’ll be the vibe going into Nashville for this one after the loss to Vanderbilt at home last season. Brandon getting through the season uninjured will be a minor miracle, so there’s no reason to be concerned about him not dominating statistically in this game — he’s going to be banged up and far from 100 percent at this point in the season. – Zach Ragan

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College Football Playoff decision

At 8-4, Tennessee is not selected.

Its best arguments are:

• Wins over Alabama and LSU
• Competitive loss to Texas
• Winning record in the SEC
• Improved play late in the season
• A true freshman quarterback who clearly developed

Its disqualifying factors are:

• Four total losses
• Road losses to Arkansas, South Carolina and Texas A&M
• No SEC Championship Game appearance
• Multiple teams with stronger records and comparable victories

Tennessee would probably finish approximately No. 20 to No. 23 in the final playoff rankings before bowl season.

This feels more realistic than forcing an 8-4 team into the field merely because the quarterback storyline is compelling.

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Bowl simulation

Citrus Bowl: Tennessee vs. Iowa

Tennessee 27, Iowa 16

Tennessee’s running game and defensive speed eventually decide the game.

Brandon throws one touchdown and runs for another. Bishop finishes with 108 yards, and Gass records two sacks.

The victory gives Tennessee a 9-4 final record and likely places the Vols around No. 19 in the final AP poll.

More importantly, Tennessee enters the offseason as one of the most discussed potential breakout teams for 2027.

Projected statistical leaders

These figures include the bowl game.

Passing

Faizon Brandon

• 2,987 passing yards
• 23 passing touchdowns
• 11 interceptions
• 63.7% completion rate
• 7.8 yards per attempt
• 394 rushing yards
• 6 rushing touchdowns

Rushing

DeSean Bishop

• 1,247 rushing yards
• 14 touchdowns
• 5.7 yards per carry
• 26 receptions
• 231 receiving yards

Bishop becomes Tennessee’s most dependable offensive player and earns second-team All-SEC recognition.

Receiving

Braylon Staley

• 71 receptions
• 962 yards
• 8 touchdowns

Staley leads Tennessee in receptions and becomes Brandon’s most trusted target. He returned after producing 68 catches, 836 yards and six touchdowns during his breakout 2025 season. 

Mike Matthews

• 59 receptions
• 913 yards
• 8 touchdowns

Matthews leads Tennessee in explosive receptions and narrowly misses 1,000 yards.

Ethan Davis

• 42 receptions
• 526 yards
• Five touchdowns

Davis becomes especially valuable against blitzes and in the red zone.

Travis Smith Jr.

• 38 receptions
• 497 yards
• Three touchdowns

TK Keys

• 24 receptions
• 361 yards
• Three touchdowns

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Defensive statistical leaders

Tackles

Edwin Spillman

• 108 tackles
• 8.5 tackles for loss
• Two sacks
• Two interceptions

Arion Carter

• 91 tackles
• 10 tackles for loss
• 3.5 sacks
• One forced fumble

Carter remains on Tennessee’s current 2026 roster and is listed as a senior at 238 pounds. 

Jeremiah Telander

• 74 tackles
• Six tackles for loss
• Two sacks

Tennessee’s linebacker group becomes the defense’s strength, with Carter, Spillman and Telander providing experience and physicality.

Sacks

Christian Gass

• 7.0 sacks
• 11 tackles for loss

Gass is listed as a 245-pound redshirt freshman on the updated roster and becomes Tennessee’s most productive individual pass rusher. 

Mariyon Dye

• 5.5 sacks
• Nine tackles for loss

Jordan Norman

• 4.5 sacks

Tyree Weathersby

• 4.0 sacks

Instead of one dominant edge player replacing Josephs, Knowles manufactures pressure through packages and rotation.

Interceptions

Kayin Lee

• Three interceptions

Ty Redmond

• Three interceptions

Edwin Spillman

• Two interceptions