How things could go right—or very wrong—for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they test Baker Mayfield in 2026
Are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers going to get the best of Baker Mayfield by playing with fire and having him “disrespected” going into 2026?
The Baker Mayfield saga will roll on for the foreseeable future. There’s no deal between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their current star quarterback, which leaves plenty of time for speculation on the future.
Right now, though? It’s time for football. Mayfield took the franchise to task at his press conference this past week but has said it’s all football from this point forward. Mayfield has always lived on the edge. Will he be able to successfully walk the line between motivated, angry, and frustrated in 2026? I asked Evan Winter of A to Z Sports Bucs for his thoughts — plus I’ve got a few of my own.
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers get the best Baker Mayfield by having him play “angry” in 2026?
“Yes, I think it’s a great idea to have Baker playing angry. He typically is at his best when the world is against him (in his mind) and there’s no reason to think that would be any different in 2026. Where you have to take pause is what comes after the fact. Will Baker give the Buccaneers a chance to “redeem themselves” after a good, or great, season or will he give them the cold shoulder in an act of retribution, so to speak?
My gut says he wouldn’t shut the door on the Bucs, but you never know. That’s where the real risk lies in all of this. But at the same time, it’s still a win for the Bucs if he has a good season and subsequently walks, because that likely means they’ve had a good season as a team.” — Evan Winter, A to Z Sports NFL
I don’t think there’s any question that Baker is at his best when playing and living on the edge. Do I worry about Baker Mayfield pressing too hard and trying to make too many things happen at times? Perhaps a bit. But Mayfield hasn’t become the player he has without acclimating within the pressure cooker. There’s been high stakes before and Baker has been to the absolute brink of the league (Carolina and with the Rams). I don’t think the moment will become too overwhelming for Baker Mayfield either.
Will Baker Mayfield be able to compartmentalize?
“This is a good question, because while I think he can indeed compartmentalize the situation, we won’t truly know until the season is under way. He’s setting himself up to potentially be the center of a lot speculation, here. If he’s healthy and providing average or inconsistent play, many will start chirping about whether or not he’s fully bought in.
That may be unfair, but that’s just how the NFL world turns. Still, a motivated player with literally tens of millions on the line should be able to shut out the noise and concentrate and that’s where I lean. But only time will tell.” — Evan Winter, A to Z Sports NFL
I’m not worried at all about Baker being able to properly compartmentalize. But I do worry about the noise from the outside. As much as we’d like to pretend that the old cliche of “noise outside the building isn’t heard”, in reality those talks are often loud and persistent.
Speculation from the outside will seep through if drama unfolds, at the very least through the questions the players will face through the media and the local reporting. The good news is we’re talking about Tampa Bay, not New York or Los Angeles. But yes — my biggest worry here is that the talking point lingers as a distraction through fan and media noise all season long. And that is especially the worst case scenario if…
…and what if the 2026 season doesn’t go well?
“Baker, along with guys like Cody Mauch, have said this won’t be a distraction. I tend to agree.
What I do wonder, however, is how will guys like Mauch, who’s in his own contract year, approach his own negotiations after seeing what Baker (and even Tristan Wirfs, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin Jr.) have gone through? Will they be vicariously jaded, in a sense, once it’s time to engage in contract talks? That’s where the actual “distraction” lies, to me. I don’t think it’ll affect the season or the on-field product.” — Evan Winter, A to Z Sports NFL
I’m taking a different angle than Evan here. Tampa’s first five aren’t exactly a day at the beach. Cincinnati, Cleveland at home (okay, I dig it), Minnesota, Green Bay, and in Dallas on a short week. If the Bucs start slow, the noise riles up, and Baker Mayfield does end up pressing? That could set the stage for a toxic run. The Bucs always have the franchise tag in their back pocket for 2027 if things go well. They would, in my opinion, be foolish not to use it and protect themselves if necessary.
But if things start really slow and this season gets off the rails? Would Todd Bowles be out? If he’s out, does a new coach want to jump into a long-term contract marriage with Baker? There’s more questions than answers here, which means everyone involved needs to hope Baker rides the lightning to a stellar, successful season in Tampa Bay this fall.
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