Florida Gators could have a major advantage in their SEC home opener and they didn’t have to do anything to get it
The Ole Miss Rebels will play in The Swamp on Saturday afternoon, and it may be without their best offensive weapon.
The Florida Gators are 3-0 heading into their SEC home opener against the Ole Miss Rebels, and they may have an easier path to beating the national semifinalists from a year ago. Star running back Kewan Lacy had an MRI on his shoulder, with the injury not expected to be long-term, but it raises questions about his status for Saturday afternoon.
The Ole Miss offense has been powered by quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, one of the best signal-callers in the country. He is averaging 0.29 EPA per play and has been fantastic across the board. Where things get interesting is how the Rebels’ rushing attack has performed over the course of the season. They have not been able to generate a consistent run game.
Ole Miss rushing attack lacks depth behind Lacy
Chambliss has often been the main beneficiary on the ground. The Rebels’ running back room is not solid behind Lacy. Makhi Frazier and J.T. Lindsey have not been able to put together consistent work, each averaging less than 4.5 yards per carry on an individual basis. Lacy is also the only player in the running back room with a significant positive EPA per rush.
Lacy was the engine last season that elevated the Rebels, and he has had a rushing touchdown in 12 consecutive games. If he does not play, it is not a death blow to Ole Miss’ chances, but it will significantly hinder them.
Florida’s run defense has a clear weakness to exploit
On defense, the best way to attack the Gators is on the ground. Florida holds just a 23rd-percentile rush EPA per play, a 25th-percentile stuff percentage, and a zero-percentile mark in line yards. Those are not exactly great numbers, but their only real matchup so far came against the Auburn Tigers on Saturday night, a 44-39 Florida win.
Auburn gained a whopping 0.41 EPA per rush in that game. The majority of that production came from quarterback Byron Brown, who ran for 100 yards on 11 carries, while starting running back Jeremiah Cobb managed just 34 yards on nine carries, and both scored a touchdown.
If Lacy doesn’t play, the Gators defense will be in a great spot to counter everything the Rebels do. Chambliss would be the only major threat to run the football, and Florida’s defensive front would have a much simpler task keying on the quarterback rather than respecting a true lead back. For a 3-0 Gators team hosting its first SEC game of the season, the timing could not be better.
