The Detroit Lions are 1-1, and the calls are pouring in. Roughly 50 to 75% of the comments right now are some version of “Brad Holmes needs to be fired” or “Is Brad Holmes’ seat hot?” After 13 years covering the Lions, the pattern is familiar. Lions fans, like fans of any team, make up their minds after Week 1 and Week 2, and the overreactions come fast.

Look, I get it. Week 1 against the Saints stung, but that New Orleans team is tougher than people realized. The Saints went out and beat the Ravens in Week 2, and now people are starting to go, okay, that’s a pretty good team on the rise. Week 2 against Buffalo? That Bills team is potentially your Super Bowl winner this year, or at least the team representing the AFC. But even saying that is an overreaction. Because they beat the Lions in Week 2? Because they beat the Texans in Week 1? When Myles Garrett got traded to the Rams, everybody said that was a lock for the Super Bowl. Now Garrett is hurt and it’s not such a lock anymore. Overreactions happen. I understand that.

Is Brad Holmes’ seat actually hot?

It depends on your definition of hot. If you mean he could get fired at the end of the year, no. Not even remotely close. There is nothing short of going 1-16 that would make this team completely change course and fire Dan Campbell and Holmes. A complete, unbelievable fall from grace. Players saying they don’t want to play anymore. Amon-Ra St. Brown going to the front office demanding a trade. That is what it would take, and the Lions are nowhere near that point.

Lukewarm? Maybe. You know what the temperature of his seat reminds me of? When you get into your car on a winter day and you have heated seats and you first turn them on. You feel that little warmth. You know it’s going to get hotter at some point, but initially it’s just a slight warmth. That’s where Brad Holmes’ seat is right now. A slight warmth.

The drafting track record

When Holmes got to Detroit, he did an unbelievable job drafting in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Pro Bowlers, All-Pros, two back-to-back Executive of the Year awards. He got this team to the NFC Championship Game in that 2023 season.

Then the 2024 draft happened. I have done extensive study on this, and I’m willing to put my facts and figures out in front of everybody. That 2024 draft as a whole was horrible. Of the 257 players drafted, 96 of them (37.4% of that class) are no longer with the team that drafted them. There were 14 Pro Bowl selections, six All-Pro selections, and only 27 players out of those 257 are starters in this league. The New England Patriots have no players from their 2024 draft on their team other than Drake Maye.

Holmes has his faults in that draft. Giovanni Manu should not have been taken that early. You could have probably gotten him in the 7th round. Sione Vaki was supposed to be a do-all guy, playing safety, special teams, and some running back. Then all of a sudden the Lions made him just a running back, even though he was a pretty decent safety at Utah. The 49ers wanted him badly.

Terrion Arnold was one of the highest-graded cornerbacks going into that draft. He was the top corner on the industry consensus board and in plenty of mocks. By every measure, every metric, he fit everything the Lions wanted, and not a bad thing was said about him. Go back and look at the old tweets. Everyone was in on this guy. Even at the Combine, media walked away thinking he could go top 10. It just didn’t work out. Then came his arrest on eight felony charges stemming from an alleged robbery and kidnapping, allegations his representation says he categorically denies. Ennis Rakestraw was considered a first-round pick too, and he fell to the second round. You walked out of that draft thinking you got two first-round corners, and none of it worked out.

But the 2025 draft? People comparing it to 2024 are wrong. Tyleik Williams has been unbelievable in the first two games. Tate Ratledge is looking like a future Pro Bowler. The 2026 draft was impressive too. Outside of 2024, Holmes has been a really good drafter.

The safety problem and the refusal to spend

Here is where I will ride Holmes hard. Kerby Joseph. Last year, the Lions started dealing with this problem, and it kept going and going. They put him on IR at the end of the year. All offseason, the media asked about him and were told things were looking better; he’s headed in the right direction. Now it’s Week 2; he’s allowed to come back and practice, and he’s still not coming back. I don’t know if we’re ever going to see Kerby Joseph play for the Lions again. At this point, it kind of feels like we’re not.

If you knew there was a problem with Joseph and a good chance you weren’t getting him back, why did you not plan for anything else? You couldn’t sign Kevin Byard for $7 million on one year? You couldn’t grab Jaquan Brisker for $5.5 million? You couldn’t sign Coby Bryant for three years, $40 million? You couldn’t get Jaylinn Hawkins or call up Tavierre Thomas? They were all out there.

Instead, the Lions got Christian Izien for $2 million and Chuck Clark for $1.5 million. The cheapest possible route with two guys who have starting experience. To replace an All-Pro, that’s not good enough. You knew there was going to be a problem and you didn’t do anything about it.

The same thing applies at cornerback. I remember writing as soon as Arnold got released that the worst thing the Lions could do is say “we got our guys” and go with Rock Ya-Sin. He’s not a starting cornerback. There’s a reason he’s been in the NFL as long as he has and has never been a full-time starter. He’s much better in a depth role.

The penalty of being good

The Lions have $38 million in cap space right now, the second most in the league. I understand you want to get Sam LaPorta paid. I understand you want to get Brian Branch paid. Holmes and Mike Disner kill it with contract structures, making it so the Lions can do basically anything they want. But they don’t do anything they want.

This is the penalty of being good. When you become a team with expectations and you start not hitting those expectations, the standard changes. The expectation right now is winning a Super Bowl. Not making the playoffs. Not winning the NFC North. Not winning a playoff game. The Lions did all that already.

I have been an advocate of playing it safe. I have told fans that history shows making big trades or big free agent signings usually doesn’t lead to a Super Bowl. There are actual studies showing that teams making those huge moves fail almost every single time. I have fought and rallied against that idea for a long time.

But now here I am saying you have to make one big move. You have to do at least one. By all means, this team could win a Super Bowl this year, but not in the current position it’s in.

The clock is ticking

If we get to the end of 2026 and the Lions don’t win the Super Bowl, they’ll come back. End of 2027, same thing. We get to the end of 2028 and there’s no Super Bowl and nothing to show for any of this, it’s over. The undoing will be that the Lions never took a swing. They never did anything uncomfortable. They played it safe the whole time.

Be careful what you wish for, though. I always point to the Jim Caldwell firing. Caldwell had the Lions in a pretty good spot. They were winning. The idea was that they just needed one more step, and Matt Patricia would be that guy. Look what happened. He destroyed this team in a way I have never seen before. I compared him to Thanos one year because he came in, snapped his fingers, and half the players you loved on this team were gone immediately. It was so bad that in 2021, nobody wanted to play here.

In 2026, a lot of people would be willing to play for the Lions. They are viewed as a potential Super Bowl-winning team. The grass isn’t always greener. But right now, this is the time. This is the moment, Brad. You have to do something uncomfortable. Will you do it?

If I’m being 100% honest, I don’t think he will. I think Holmes and the Lions will stand pat, sign a couple guys off a practice squad, maybe bring in a veteran like Kenny Moore. The trade deadline will come; they’ll make phone calls; teams will ask for picks the Lions aren’t willing to give, and that’ll be that. They’ll go to the draft next year, draft a quarterback, and we’ll be sitting here wondering if this team will ever fill that cornerback role.

Sheila Ford Hamp is a really nice lady. But I don’t think she’s going to be patient forever. You just can’t be.

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