Vikings Keys To Victory: Kyler Murray and T.J. Hockenson are primed to exploit the Buccaneers defense
Minnesota’s defense is playing at an elite level, Kyler Murray’s role is still a mystery after just 11 snaps, and the running back room is teetering on the edge of a full-blown crisis.
The Minnesota Vikings take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon in their second 3 p.m. CT game of the season. Minnesota will have played three of its first four games in the late afternoon window, something the Vikings aren’t used to. However, a 2-0 start has this team feeling confident heading into a matchup against a desperate 0-2 Tampa Bay squad.
There are several keys to victory for the Vikings in this one, and it starts with the defense.
The Vikings defense continues to maximize its players
One thing the Vikings have done exceptionally well is maximizing their players within the context of the scheme. That has been a huge factor in their success. The Vikings have done a multitude of good things over the course of the start of their season, and it hasn’t been due to just one element. They have found a way to maximize everything.
According to Fantasy Points data, Minnesota has played base defense the third most in the NFL so far at 54%. That has resulted in the 4th-best EPA per rush allowed at -0.34 and the No. 1 success rate allowed in the league at just 38%. Success rate is one of the best indicators of a good defense because it tracks the plays you need to get within. It helps quantify how good a defense is on a down-to-down basis, not just how many points or yards they’ve allowed. If you’re consistently successful across the board, it’s going to showcase in this number.
One of the keys to this defense has been Dallas Turner. He has 3 sacks and 20 pressures through two games. The Vikings have done a great job utilizing his 4.47 40-yard dash speed and explosive power to attack certain leverages. Minnesota doesn’t do anything super special on defense. They just attack the basics when it comes to protection rules. They make opposing offenses cover Turner with a running back or a linebacker by manipulating alignments and drop-backs.
With the interior of Tampa Bay’s offensive line struggling to handle stunts, this could be a huge game for Turner, Blake Cashman, and Eric Wilson. Those cross-dog blitzes are essentially stunts, and if the Buccaneers can’t pick them up, Cashman and Wilson are about to feast. The cross-dog blitzes also allow the Vikings to generate pressure up the middle, which prevents quarterback Baker Mayfield from scrambling. Getting Mayfield into a collapsed pocket and not letting him attack vertically could be the biggest key of all.
The Kyler Murray questions remain fascinating
On the offensive side, the Vikings still don’t know what they have in quarterback Kyler Murray. He signed to be the starting quarterback and potentially the quarterback of the future, but Minnesota has just 11 plays of data on him. The team will likely look somewhat similar to the version that played with Carson Wentz, but despite popular opinion, head coach Kevin O’Connell actually does a great job adapting game plans and play calling to the strengths of his quarterback.
Murray loves throwing intermediate-style routes, as he comes from an air raid background. How much will that impact things? How much will his height and rushing ability factor in? He also has a concussion on his resume now. Will O’Connell have had plans for Murray’s mobility but now want to dial it back?
O’Connell was able to mitigate another quarterback disaster, with Wentz having to play two full games to start the season. The Vikings still got two division wins. There is nobody better in the NFL at managing a team that has to start backup quarterbacks than O’Connell. Over his last seven games, he has started J.J. McCarthy, Wentz, Max Brosmer, and Murray. In those games, he’s 7-0. Murray’s one start featured just 11 snaps, so he wasn’t a major contributor to the offensive success that day.
Murray being here gives the Vikings stability, and there is a high-end resolution with his play because he has performed at an MVP-caliber level before. Whether he can reach that level again remains to be seen, but if he’s going to do it, it’s going to be for this Minnesota Vikings team.
The running back room is one play away from DEFCON 1
Aaron Jones is hurt again. It’s an unfortunate reality because Jones is a great player, and by all accounts, a great human and locker room presence. Ultimately, it’s hard to trust him when he continues to get banged up. He got banged up multiple times on Sunday, and O’Connell described a knee injury after the game. I’ve been told that there is another injury lingering as well, which unfortunately isn’t much of a surprise, as it’s par for the course with Jones. Running him three or four fewer carries probably wouldn’t have made a difference because he likely would have suffered the injury the following week.
With Jordan Mason already out with a broken thumb and DeeJay Dallas suffering a toe injury on the final carry of the game, this is approaching a crisis point. If Jones has to miss the game, Minnesota is looking at Dallas, Jerome Ford, Jaret Patterson, and Demond Claiborne as its four running backs. With O’Connell’s renewed commitment to running the football, is that a viable path forward? Could the Vikings strike a big trade, perhaps targeting someone from a loaded backfield like the Arizona Cardinals? That part remains unclear, but this running back room is one play away from disaster.
This is the T.J. Hockenson game
If the Vikings need to supplement the run game, they may just have to throw the ball more. One matchup that stands out is tight end versus linebacker. Tampa Bay second-round pick Josiah Trotter was a great addition to the Buccaneers’ defense and earned a spot on the All-Forno team. He is also dealing with a shoulder injury and is doubtful, but will likely miss the game. Head coach Todd Bowles announced that he would miss the game, but he was later listed as doubtful.
Even if Trotter plays, the other Buccaneers linebacker, Alex Anzalone, has struggled. He is top 10 in the league in missed tackle percentage at over 23%. A linebacker can’t have basically one out of every four tackle attempts result in a miss. That opens the door for big chunk plays and allows offenses to attack in a multitude of ways.
If Anzalone can’t tackle, he’s going to have a tough time covering a 265-pound tight end like T.J. Hockenson, who excels at running choice routes and intermediate routes over the middle of the field. Hockenson is a prime candidate to exploit that weakness, especially with how much Bowles calls Cover-1 and man coverage. Getting him running seams over the middle with some play action could do real damage against Tampa Bay’s coverage.
Murray does have a history of throwing to tight ends, though in Arizona that tight end was Trey McBride, a top-2 tight end in the NFL. How that translates to Hockenson will be worth watching.
