Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell is receiving far too much criticism, and there is one aspect fans are missing
The calls from some in the fanbase to fire Kevin O’Connell stem from frustration, but aren’t based enough on merit.
Once the Minnesota Vikings chose to trade J.J. McCarthy, there was a decent-sized portion of the fanbase calling for head coach Kevin O’Connell to be fired. The idea would be to replace him with defensive coordinator Brian Flores. It’s not the media driving the conversation; it’s the fans. And while it might not be the most popular opinion, especially with Flores’ defense thriving and O’Connell’s offenses struggling, there is a significant amount more to being a head coach than calling plays.
Even so, O’Connell isn’t perfect. He’s 0-2 in the playoffs, but there are legitimate reasons why. That 2022 team massively overachieved, as defense couldn’t stop a paper bag from blowing in the wind under Ed Donatell, and the offensive line wasn’t good enough to hold up against Dexter Lawrence in the Giants playoff game. The 2024 team had similar issues up front, and it became the catalyst for Sam Darnold turtling down the stretch. Minnesota lost four games that season, all to the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams. When you look at who those play-callers were and where the Flores defense was at the time, those in-breaking routes from both Sean McVay and Ben Johnson were destroying what Flores was trying to do. He has since evolved the defense, and that evolution has fans pushing for Flores to take over.
So, what can we look at when breaking down O’Connell’s tenure? There are a lot of elements at play.
The full picture on O’Connell’s tenure
With O’Connell’s tenure, you have to look at the entire picture. O’Connell is 46-25 as a head coach in his fifth season. He has hit the over on Las Vegas win totals three of his four years while making the playoffs twice and nearly made it a third time. It’s not uncommon for head coaches new to the playoffs to struggle initially, as both Andy Reid and Bill Belichick started a combined 2-7. Both have multiple Super Bowl championships.
Since O’Connell took over, the Vikings have had 20 Players of the Week on offense, defense, and special teams collectively. That’s one for every 3.55 games played. This year alone, Minnesota has had back-to-back Special Teams Players of the Week, with Isaiah Rodgers earning one for his field goal block against the Chicago Bears and Myles Price last week for his punt return touchdown.
Players are maximizing their potential in Minnesota. Rogers was a value signing at two years, just over $11 million. He earned the first-ever Pro Football Focus grade of 99.9 and won Defensive Player of the Week in 2025’s Week 3 before doubling down as Special Teams Player of the Week this season. Levi Drake Rodriguez has also been Special Teams Player of the Week thanks to a blocked field goal.
It’s not just the players who are recognized league wide; the Vikings have developed some impressive players. Josh Oliver has been a catalyst for offensive success, especially helping the offensive line through injuries. Aaron Jones has played really good football during his three years. They’ve developed Jordan Addison nicely, Christian Darrisaw has emerged as a superstar under O’Connell’s watch, and Justin Jefferson had his best season in 2022 with over 1,800 receiving yards and won Offensive Player of the Year.
That’s 20 Players of the Week, six Players of the Month, and one Player of the Year. Are you going to give all that credit to Brian Flores? That’s not how this works.
The quarterbacks quote needs context
A lot of the frustration traces back to the McCarthy experiment. It didn’t work, and people point to O’Connell’s quote about organizations failing young quarterbacks. He said Monday that the quote “needs a lot of context.” He was speaking from a 30,000-foot view:
“No guy comes out of college the same these days, how they see the field, what you’re going to try to teach them from a standpoint of your progressions, and I just think as a whole, there’s not enough emphasis put on the organization’s role in the development of the position. Meaning, I do believe this. I believe that organizations fail young quarterbacks before young quarterbacks fail organizations. And that’s not there’s no specific example in my mind that I could give you of a team or a quarterback just overall 30,000 foot view.”
He’s right. That context matters because there is a 30,000-foot view where organizations are too brash. That doesn’t mean moving on early from a quarterback is wrong. Only time will tell how good McCarthy can be, but he was likely never going to reach his ceiling in Minnesota. Alec Lewis’s piece at The Athletic is worth reading on this topic, because there are elements at play from a maturity and process standpoint that weren’t necessarily great in Minnesota.
The second part of O’Connell’s quote drives that point home:
“I think it’s important to understand that every single one of these guys is on a journey, a very difficult journey, that they need the support, they need the teammates around them. They need the systems in place to ultimately try to maximize who they are and what their potential is, because you’re still drafting players rich off of potential. And then everything that happens from that moment to when that potential becomes is really on the organization, if you’ve got the right guy that you’re bringing in.
“And then in regards to, I do believe there’s some times where things just don’t work out, and then getting a chance to wipe the slate clean and get a restart, while still using your previous experiences to kind of shape how you’re going to work, why you’re going to work, why things are important to you, will only make guys better in the end, and I’ve seen some examples of that in our league as well over the last few years.”
If you’ve got the right guy coming in, are we sure this was a Kevin O’Connell development problem, or did the Vikings completely whiff on the evaluation? We know they wanted Drake Maye and couldn’t get him because Robert Kraft stepped in. Taking McCarthy was still a smart bet because the upside was there, even though it didn’t work out. If they took Bo Nix, the conversation would be about whether to extend a quarterback who I believe is more Sean Payton’s puppet than elevating the offense in Denver. That’s winning football games on a rookie contract, but is it going to be the same at $50 million a year?
All in all, there is culpability with all parties when it comes to McCarthy not succeeding with the Vikings. Even so, it certainly seems more toward McCarthy being the most culpable in this scenario. O’Connell has elevated every quarterback who has played for him, with McCarthy being the one who struggled the most.
The offensive concerns are real, but not fireable
The other big reason fans want Flores elevated is simple: the offense hasn’t been good enough. For a coach viewed as an offensive guru, the Vikings have never had an offense ranked in the top 10 of EPA per play or success rate. Last year they were in the bottom five in EPA per play. This year isn’t looking much better, especially as a 3-0 team that leads the NFL in punts.
At a certain point, is O’Connell a guru, or is he a scheme lord with great ideas his players can never execute because of a multitude of different factors? There needs to be some kind of evolution and growth with the unit. You can tell that watching his play designs that O’Connell is elite at scheming up shot plays, but if they aren’t working, struggles often occur.
That doesn’t mean he deserves to be fired. His teams are 21 games over .500 three weeks into year five. Within that, O’Connell is 5-0 when his teams are favored by 7+ points and 4-1 when underdogs by the same measure. Even so, if he misses the playoffs again, that argument will get louder.
But right now, the frustration is more about the McCarthy situation than anything else. It’s fair to be annoyed that a 10th overall pick quarterback is gone at the beginning of Year 3. It’s also a good thing the Vikings didn’t buy into the sunk cost fallacy and kept giving chances to a player they were already done with.
O’Connell has flaws, but are those flaws enough to replace him? The Vikings are in a strong position to take things to another level, and O’Connell is the guy to do that. Plus, if you fire him, are we sure the team gets better without O’Connell? That’s the key crux to the discussion. Even so, we still need to see improvements. Can the offense elevate enough to complement an incredible defense? When the defense has a bad game, can the offense take over?
We’ll find out. But right now, O’Connell doesn’t deserve to be on the hot seat.
