Missouri Tigers quarterback Austin Simmons has quietly put together a strong start to the 2026 college football season. The former top recruit hasn’t thrown an interception through five games, and his efficiency and accuracy have both looked excellent.

That has everyone asking a question about the 2027 NFL Draft that seemed far-fetched a month ago.

Against Florida this past weekend, Simmons was aggressive and confident, ripping the ball all over the field. Cayden Lee was one target he kept connecting with throughout the game. If he keeps playing like this, NFL teams will start pushing for him to declare early.

It still doesn’t seem likely that he leaves Missouri after this season. A couple of scouts I’ve talked to are convinced he won’t be in this class. However, the louder his performances get, the louder that conversation will get.

Why Austin Simmons’ draft decision is complicated

Simmons is one of the more unusual evaluations in college football.

He started a couple of games for Ole Miss last year before his injury. He struggled in those starts, and Trinidad Chambliss took over from there. That means Simmons is still on track to be a one-year starting quarterback.

We know how one-year starters have fared making the jump to the NFL. The list isn’t kind.

On top of that, Simmons is still a young player. His story stands out for a few reasons. He played both baseball and football, and he reclassified, which accelerated his path through the college ranks.

If you ask me, quarterbacks are better served getting as much college game experience as possible before making that dramatic jump to the NFL. I’m a traditionalist in that regard.

The real debate for Simmons is whether quick, short-term money outweighs his chances to become a long-term successful quarterback at the next level. That is the conversation he’s likely having with his representation, his parents, and his coaches.

Here’s the thing about his profile, though. You can’t teach a 6-4, 220-pound frame with a rocket arm. He has that baseball-type arm, loose and easy, where the ball just shoots off his hand. He looks as natural as any quarterback I could picture.

NFL teams needing a quarterback could change the math

It’s early, but more NFL teams need a quarterback than many of us anticipated. That’s what makes this situation worth watching.

The Minnesota Vikings could be picking anywhere from the teens to the 20s, and they’re going to need a quarterback. The Pittsburgh Steelers need one too. Then there’s a strange logjam with the Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, and Arizona Cardinals, who could land in the top 10 depending on how many games they keep winning.

If the 2027 quarterback class ends up thin, a clear path toward the top 15 could open for Simmons. He’s also watched other quarterbacks return to school and see their stock drop after a disappointing season. After a rocky college career, I understand why that might be tempting.

Is Simmons worthy of a first-round pick?

There is a key distinction here. Would I personally draft Simmons in the first round today?

I would want to see him stack a few more games first. The schedule gets tougher deeper into SEC play, and stacking performances matters more at quarterback than at any other position.

Would an NFL team draft him in the first round based on what we’ve seen so far? Absolutely.

Between his age, his arm, and his physical tools, I have no doubt a team would take him in Round 1 today. If he keeps playing the way he has over the last couple of weeks for the rest of the season, I think he would be a first-round pick.

It shouldn’t be a surprise. Lane Kiffin was extremely high on Simmons before the 2025 season as his potential starter. Ole Miss brought in Chambliss as an insurance policy, a late transfer portal addition from Ferris State in a strange situation. Even while Chambliss was stacking good games, there were murmurs that Simmons could come back and reclaim the starting job.

That never happened because Chambliss played so well. Still, the belief in Simmons was there for a reason, and he’s showing why at Missouri.

He’s clearly toolsy, he’s clearly talented, and he has put himself in the first-round conversation. Whether he chooses to act on it is a different question, and the rest of the SEC schedule will go a long way toward answering it.