No college football game is bigger this weekend than Ohio State vs. Indiana. It’s a top-tier Big Ten showdown with playoff implications, a Heisman contender on the field, and a rematch history that should make anyone think twice before making a confident prediction.

Ohio State vs. Indiana is hard to predict this season. Plenty of factors make me want to lean toward the Buckeyes. However, the last time everyone assumed Ohio State would beat Indiana, it marked the start of the Hoosiers’ national championship run when they bested the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship. That history alone should keep everyone humble heading into this matchup.

Indiana has been tested more than people think

Many people have convinced themselves that Indiana hasn’t played anyone this season. That narrative doesn’t hold up. The Hoosiers had two tough matchups against Northwestern and Nebraska, and they survived close games by executing in critical moments.

Winning tight games requires composure, and Indiana has shown plenty of it. Teams that haven’t been tested usually crack when a game gets close in the fourth quarter.

The Hoosiers didn’t, especially against Nebraska when they trailed 17-6. Star receiver Nick Marsh caught two massive touchdowns that helped them respond to the deficit, while their defense forced two turnovers on downs.

The biggest reason for that survival is quarterback Josh Hoover’s efficiency. He hasn’t thrown an interception this season, which is remarkable given the pressure situations he’s been in.

Many people, including me, were worried coming into the year that Hoover would struggle to protect the football. He threw 13 interceptions last season, but has proven me wrong so far. Ball security was the biggest question mark surrounding him, and he’s answered it emphatically through the first half of the season.

Of course, Hoover has two elite receivers to throw to: Marsh and Charlie Becker. That duo gives Indiana two reliable targets who can win on the outside and create problems for any defense.

However, producing big plays will be much tougher against this Ohio State secondary. Hoover got some major chunk plays out of Marsh against Nebraska, but the Buckeyes’ defensive backs are a completely different challenge. Indiana won’t be able to count on easy separation downfield on Saturday.

Jeremiah Smith is the problem Indiana can’t solve

I sadly don’t think Indiana will be able to slow down Jeremiah Smith. The Ohio State star receiver is on a Heisman-level run, producing 916 yards and 11 touchdowns this season.

Smith is the type of player who can flip a game on a single snap. Even when defenses know the ball is coming his way, they still struggle to stop him. That’s what makes him so dangerous in a game like this one.

The matchup gets even worse for the Hoosiers when you look at their secondary. Indiana’s pass defense quietly hasn’t been great. The Hoosiers currently rank 76th in EPA per dropback allowed, and they gave up several splash plays through the air against Nebraska.

That’s not a recipe for success against a receiver of Smith’s caliber. If Nebraska found holes in that secondary, it raises the question of what the Buckeyes will do with a talent like Smith on the outside. Indiana’s defensive backs need to play their best game of the season just to keep this competitive.

Ohio State should edge out a narrow win

This game is going to be a narrow, entertaining battle. Indiana has earned the benefit of the doubt in how it handles pressure, and Hoover’s ability to protect the football gives the Hoosiers a real chance to hang around all game.

Still, the gap between Smith and the Indiana secondary is too big to ignore. Ohio State has the best player on the field, and the Hoosiers haven’t shown they can contain explosive passing attacks.

It feels like Ohio State is going to prevail. This matchup should deliver the kind of close finish both programs have proven capable of producing.