Here are the keys to the game for the Texas Longhorns to beat the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday night at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. And it starts with a betting line that has a lot of people scratching their heads. Texas is a 3.5-point favorite.

Contrary to the public belief that Ole Miss is the better football team, Las Vegas is backing the Longhorns. Many are asking how in the world Steve Sarkisian’s team is favored in this game, especially with no Collin Simmons and an offense that has looked as bad as this one has with Arch Manning at quarterback.

It’s far to question how can anybody trust this Texas team right now. Well, let’s go into the heads of Las Vegas and explain how the Longhorns can pull this off.

Run the football and keep it simple for Arch Manning

Number one, and I think this is the biggest key if Texas wants to keep its season alive, is running the football. Running backs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers are an incredibly dynamic duo. Now, Ole Miss did shut down Missouri running back Jamal Roberts and the Tigers’ offense. And Missouri runs a lot of outside zone, which is very similar to what you’re going to see from Sarkisian.

So the Longhorns are going to have to flip that script there. They’re going to need the best game from Trevor Goosby and the rest of the big guys up-front. And they’re going to need to take the ball out of quarterback Arch Manning’s hands.

That goes to the second key. Can Arch just be a game manager? Can he get the football out in less than two seconds? Sarkisian needs to make the game simple for him.

Because I think Texas does have playmakers who can do damage with the football in their hands. Emmett Mosley V is one of them. Ryan Wingo is another, if he does end up catching the football. Pair that with a good rushing attack, and that’s enough for me. It doesn’t have to be pretty to complicated.

Someone has to replace Colin Simmons’ pressure

The third key might be the most important of the three. Who steps up for the Texas defense with Simmons out?

I’m not saying anyone is going to fill in exactly or match the same production. I don’t know if there’s an edge player anywhere in college football who could fill the void of a Colin Simmons. But somebody has to step up. It could be a young player. It could be a transfer.

The Longhorns need someone who can speed up Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and actually finish the pressure. You can pressure Chambliss, but as we’ve seen time and time again, just pressuring him doesn’t equal negative plays. Some of the best plays we’ve seen from him come when he is pressured. That’s the scary part.

Getting home is the job against a quarterback of this caliber. Collapsing the pocket and letting him escape is how Ole Miss wins this game.

Final thoughts: Vegas knows something I don’t

Now listen, I don’t fully understand how Texas is such a “significant” favorite. I know 3.5 points isn’t much at home. And I know Texas fans reading this are probably questioning the same thing. But Texas, I believe is in the most desperate spot in college football right now. This is a make-or-break spot for the program, and I think Sarkisian’s job is on the line.

We may also see two quarterbacks from Texas in this game. If that happens, I’d lean on the backup quarterback theory. When a backup gets thrown into the mix, you tend to see a collective effort from the entire team that’s better than what you’ve seen up to that point. Everybody plays a little harder around him.

I do believe Texas has the capability of executing all three of these keys. Whether the Longhorns actually do it is a whole different conversation, and I’m not putting 110 percent confidence behind it.

But I tend to lean on the side that Vegas knows better than me. Those shiny buildings didn’t get built by being wrong about games like this one. I think Texas pulls off the win Saturday night in what will feel like an upset for the team that was favored all along.