ESPN host makes a bold statement about the Tennessee Vols and the playoff, but the numbers might not back it up
Tennessee likely doesn’t have wiggle room after their loss to South Carolina, but one pundit sees the Vols as having as good a chance as any if they drop one more.
The Tennessee Vols know the task now after losing to South Carolina at the last second 27-24: just win.
At 6-2 and 2-2 in the SEC, there’s effectively no margin for error for Josh Heupel’s team if the program hopes to make its second appearance in the College Football Playoff.
Or is there perhaps some wiggle room? In recent years, 10-2 has been the cut line to make the playoff as an at large team. But is that going to be the case this year? 2026 has been a chaotic season, particularly in the SEC, with teams beating each other seemingly almost at random week after week. So it’s very possible a number of potential contenders could end up at 9-3.
That’s just what ESPN studio host Peter Burns wrote on Twitter (X) on Tuesday. Specifically, he sees four SEC teams in play to potentially make it in the playoff at 9-3: Georgia, LSU, Texas, and Tennessee.
ESPN’s Peter Burns mentions Tennessee Vols as a possible 9-3 playoff team, but the numbers don’t support it strongly
It makes sense that Tennessee could potentially be in position for consideration if they finish at 9-3. The Vols still have playoff hopefuls Kentucky and LSU coming up in November, so the opportunity for resume-building wins is right there.
But according to A to Z Sports’ playoff predictor, the chances are currently low that the Vols could get in at 9-3. I ran four simulations with Tennessee losing to each of their last four opponents. The best odds came with a loss at Texas A&M on Nov. 14. That left Tennessee with a 24% chance of making the playoff.
Of course, how much chaos unfolds over the next six weeks will determine how many teams are in contention at 10-2 and 9-3. We typically see a lot of jockeying, and sometimes a last minute surprise, as we saw with Notre Dame and Miami in the final ranking last year, is possible.
Simply put, Tennessee needs to take care of business every week and treat each game like a playoff game. Because the odds say that’s likely the case.
