The Houston Cougars are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Utah Utes in Utah, and their College Football Playoff chances are hanging on by a thread. Still, a thread is not the same as being eliminated. Houston has multiple Big 12 results in Week 9 that could give its playoff odds a much-needed lift.

So using the all-new A to Z Sports College Football Playoff predictor, we are going to break it all down. That includes where the Cougars stand right now and which teams they need to come through while they sit on a bye.

Where the Cougars stand after the Utah loss

The numbers tell the story pretty clearly. A 13 percent chance at the playoff isn’t nothing, but Houston has very little margin for error from here.

The bigger issue is the conference record. Two losses in Big 12 play is a heavy weight to carry this late in the year, and that’s why the odds of simply reaching the conference title game sit at just 14 percent. Winning the league is an even steeper climb at 5 percent.

The Cougars can’t do anything about it in Week 9, either. Houston is on a bye, so the team will be sitting back and watching. I wouldn’t call it relaxing. This is a week where the Cougars need other teams to do them some favors.

Why Houston needs Cincinnati to beat Utah

The first team Houston should be pulling for is Cincinnati. That’s right, the Cougars want the Bearcats to double up on the magic from last week.

Cincinnati just knocked off the Texas Tech Red Raiders, and now it gets a shot at the Utah Utes. If the Bearcats can pull off another win, the predictor gives the Cougars a 2 percent boost in their playoff odds.

That might not sound like much on the surface. However, when you are starting at 13 percent, every point matters. A Utah loss would also take a little shine off a team that just beat Houston, and it would tighten up a Big 12 race the Cougars desperately need to stay crowded.

This is the game that matters most on Houston’s Week 9 watch list. The Cougars need Cincinnati to repeat what it did against Texas Tech, and it would be the clearest path to clawing back into the conversation.

Texas Tech is the backup plan

The second team on the list is that very same Texas Tech squad Cincinnati just beat. Houston wants the Red Raiders to bounce back and take down Arizona.

A Texas Tech win would give the Cougars a boost of about 1 percent toward making the College Football Playoff. It’s a smaller bump than the Cincinnati result, but it still moves the needle in the right direction.

Rooting for both outcomes makes sense for Houston. If the Cougars could pick only one, though, they should hope the Bearcats come through against the Utes more than they should hope for a Red Raiders win over the Wildcats.

Houston can’t afford a quiet Saturday

It’s very obvious that the Cougars are facing a very big uphill battle just to sniff the College Football Playoff. Two conference losses will do that to you, and there is no sugarcoating where this team stands.

But crazy things have happened in college football. Mathematically, Houston is far from eliminated, and the predictor still sees a real path to the postseason.

The bottom line is that the path has to start this week. The Cougars are going to need help from Cincinnati, Texas Tech, or ideally both. If neither result breaks their way, those odds are only going to dwindle from here, and the margin for error will be gone before Houston even takes the field again.