The SMU Mustangs sit at 6-1 overall and 4-1 in the ACC, with their sights set on a trip to Charlotte, North Carolina, for the ACC Championship Game. Heading into a pivotal Week 9 across college football, what are SMU’s actual chances of reaching the College Football Playoff? And who should Mustangs fans be rooting for this weekend?

To answer that, we ran SMU through the A to Z Sports College Football Playoff Predictor. Here is the full breakdown.

Where SMU stands in the A to Z Sports playoff predictor

The predictor gives SMU a 16% chance to make the College Football Playoff, a 10% chance to win the ACC, and a 37% chance to reach the conference title game.

Those numbers tell a clear story. The Mustangs are firmly in the mix, but they are not in control of their own destiny just yet. A 37% chance of reaching Charlotte is respectable. However, the drop to 10% for actually winning the league shows how steep a climb the top of the ACC presents.

On Saturday, SMU takes on the Syracuse Orange. The Mustangs are favored and should take care of business. A win alone won’t do all the heavy lifting, though. As that 16% playoff figure suggests, SMU is going to need some help.

The 2 games SMU fans should be watching in Week 9

Outside of Saturday’s matchup with Syracuse, two games stand out for the Mustangs: Virginia against Wake Forest, and North Carolina against Miami.

For one, SMU wants Virginia to knock off Wake Forest. According to the predictor, a Cavaliers win would give the Mustangs a 4% boost in their playoff odds. Additionally, a North Carolina win over Miami would bump SMU’s playoff odds by 2%.

Here’s the catch. Neither of those games is going to be easy. Virginia is not favored against Wake Forest, and North Carolina is certainly not favored against Miami. In fact, Wake Forest and Miami are two teams that, beyond SMU, could very well be the ones meeting in Charlotte for the ACC Championship.

Miami, in particular, is a tall order. The Hurricanes are the No. 1 team in the nation and look like they are headed straight for Charlotte and back to the College Football Playoff. They also have a big-time matchup against Notre Dame next week. Asking the Tar Heels to take down the top team in the country is a lot.

What it all means for SMU’s playoff hopes

So where does that leave the Mustangs? To me, neither boost is massive on its own, but for a team sitting at 16%, every percentage point matters. SMU is in a spot where it needs to stack wins and hope the rest of the conference creates some chaos.

SMU can only control what it can control. That means getting the job done against Syracuse first and foremost. From there, it’s about keeping an eye on the scoreboard and hoping Virginia or North Carolina can pull off an upset against Wake Forest or Miami, respectively.

If even one of those games breaks SMU’s way, Week 9 could end up being a meaningful step toward Charlotte and a potential spot in the College Football Playoff.