The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons are set to meet in a crucial Week 8 NFC South showdown, and it’s about as hard to predict as any game on the schedule.

One thing is certain, though: The Falcons offense will be the toughest test the Buccaneers defense has faced all season.

“They all take top priority,” Todd Bowles told reporters when asked who he’ll prioritize this week in terms of his game plan. “I don’t think you can not plan for one. It takes 11 guys to be where they’re supposed to be, and we’ve got to make plays. They’ve got some superstars over there.”

Everything in Atlanta starts and ends with Bijan Robinson. He leads the NFL in rushing and has a strong case as the best running back in football. He’s facing one of the league’s best run defenses in Tampa Bay, so this matchup should be fun to watch.

How does Robinson lead the league with a mediocre run-blocking line in front of him? It comes down to his skill set. He can pass block, catch out of the backfield, and make defenders miss in space. He also has the speed, size, strength, and ability to cut on a dime that you want in a running back.

How the Buccaneers can slow down Bijan Robinson

Stopping Robinson is easier said than done, but Tampa Bay has the tools. The Bucs ranked inside the top six in stuff rate from Weeks 3-7. If the defensive line wins at the point of attack, Robinson gets pushed toward the perimeter, and the Falcons offensive line falls out of rhythm. The burden then falls on Robinson to turn a bad play into a good one.

The issue is Robinson can do turn a bad play into a good one at any point in time and it’s due to his ability to make defenders miss. Robinson leads the NFL in yards after contact per attempt and is tied for third in rush yards over expected among qualifying running backs, per Next Gen Stats.

“He’s tough,” said Bowles. “I mean, he can stop and start, he’s strong, he’s quick, he’s got great vision, he’s got hands. Anytime he’s in open space, it’s going to be a problem. We’ve got to get everybody to the ball, and we’ve really got to swarm to the football. One guy usually doesn’t do it.”

However, the Buccaneers’ run defense leads the league in fewest yards allowed after contact. The key will be taking Robinson down as soon as the defense gets its hands on him. If that happens, there’s a good chance the Buccaneers will severely reduce his impact on the game. 

The Buccaneers should load the box to help stop Robinson, as well. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, a vast majority of Robinson’s production has come against light or neutral boxes of seven or fewer defenders. His numbers drop dramatically against eight-plus-man boxes, even though he hasn’t seen many of them.

Tampa Bay can do that with the penny fronts it showed against the Panthers. That look uses five defensive linemen, one linebacker, and five defensive backs. It lets the Bucs bring Tykee Smith or Antoine Winfield Jr. into the box while staying in nickel coverage to handle Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Smith has been a game disruptor as the team’s box safety, and he can cover Pitts if needed.

Josiah Trotter and Alex Anzalone also have to be sharp at the second level. Anzalone has a missed tackle rate above 14%, and Trotter sits around 7%. However, according to PFF, each linebacker has missed only one tackle in run defense. The rest came in pass defense after the catch. That’s a concern, since Robinson is lethal as a receiver. Still, if the front creates havoc, both linebackers should be in good shape.

It looks like Winfield will play, and that would be huge. With one of the league’s best post safeties patrolling center field, the Buccaneers can afford to stack the box. Winfield reads plays quickly, which helps against play action. He was also the reason, in my opinion, Tampa Bay beat Atlanta in Week 1 last year. His late pass breakup near the end zone, on a throw intended for Casey Washington, kept the Falcons from scoring a touchdown that would’ve given them the lead.

Instead, they settled for a field goal attempt, which Younghoe Koo missed and preserved the win for the Buccaneers. 

Drake London is a major threat, as well

Teams play light boxes against Atlanta for a clear reason. Michael Penix Jr. has nine touchdown passes and one interception. He handles the blitz well and plays even better when teams don’t blitz, which is unusual for a quarterback. His one weakness is pressure. Fortunately, the Buccaneers have 10 sacks over the last few weeks, largely from a four-man rush.

“He’s got great zip on the ball and great timing on the football – [a] strong arm,” said Bowles. “He can get out of the pocket. He runs a lot better than you think he can run. He’s really not giving the ball away. They’re doing a great job taking care of the football, which is going to be critical in this game. We’ve been getting [interceptions], but they’re a hard team to get them off of, and he’s playing winning football.”

Pitts has smoked the Bucs lately, and Todd Bowles admitted as much Wednesday.

“He’s torched us pretty [well] the past few ballgames,” said Bowles. “We’ve got to do a better job. He’s a great athlete and he’s a great player, but we’ve got to do a better job defensively.”

Even so, London worries me more. At 6-foot-4, 213 pounds, he’s a matchup nightmare, and Kevin Stefanski moves him everywhere. London has 106 snaps from the slot, roughly 164 on the offensive left, and about 121 on the offensive right. He’s also a good run blocker, which helps the ground game when he lines up inside.

If I’m Bowles, I’m putting Zyon McCollum on London all day. Bowles has said McCollum can play inside and out. Otherwise, the secondary has to communicate every snap, and that invites busted coverages that open things up for Pitts, Jahan Dotson, and Robinson.

I like Jacob Parrish, and I think he’ll be a good corner for a long time. Size is the issue, though. DK Metcalf, who is also 6-foot-4, gave him trouble a couple of weeks ago. McCollum is listed at 6-foot-2, with great length, and he’s been more aggressive at the catch point. With McCollum on London, everyone else can think less and play faster.

Atlanta’s line is solid in pass protection, but it might be without starting right tackle Jawaan Taylor. If Tampa Bay shuts down the run and puts the game on Penix, it could stamp another NFC South win.

On the other side, Zac Robinson faces Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who knows his tendencies from their time together last year. For me, the plan is simple. Run it 25 to 30 times, open up play action, and keep pressure off Baker Mayfield and that thumb. I’m sure Robinson wants to beat the team that fired him.

Weather could make this even more unpredictable. Still, I like the Buccaneers’ chances. Last week’s blowout gave this team real confidence, and now it has to prove it again against Atlanta.