The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2-1 over their last three games, and they could easily be 3-0 if not for that ugly fourth-quarter collapse against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Something bigger has been brewing in Tampa Bay since Week 3, though: Over the last five games, the Buccaneers defense has started to look like a championship-caliber unit.

Say what you want about Bucs coach Todd Bowles. Plenty of fair and realistic criticism has come his way this season. However, one thing you can’t deny is that his defensive game plans have been on a heater since the Minnesota Vikings game. Outside of that fourth quarter in Pittsburgh, the defense has been lighting it up. You can also make a case that the offense deserves its share of the blame for that collapse.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, the Buccaneers currently rank third in total EPA/play allowed and that includes a third-place ranking in pass EPA allowed and a sixth-place spot in rushing EPA allowed. Those numbers have been helped dramatically since Week 3, however.

To be clear, I’m not saying the Bucs are headed to the Super Bowl. Look at the Houston Texans last season. A championship-caliber defense doesn’t guarantee anything. Still, if this group keeps playing like this and stays healthy, Tampa Bay will be a tough draw for anyone. Especially with guys like Antoine Winfield Jr. expected to return soon.

The Buccaneers secondary has flipped the script for the defense

Start with the metric that matters most. From Weeks 3-7, the Buccaneers have allowed 19 points per game. Stretched across the first seven weeks of the season, that would rank fifth in the NFL.

The pass defense has been even better. Per Sports Info Solutions, Tampa Bay ranks second in EPA per play allowed through the air since Week 3. The Bucs’ 42.9% positive play rate ranks sixth, the 81.0 quarterback rating allowed ranks eighth, and the roughly 229 passing yards allowed per game rank 10th.

It’s easy to see why. Cornerback Zyon McCollum is having the best year of his career through seven games, and he capped it off with an interception against the Carolina Panthers. Picks have never been his thing, but this could be the start of something different. Across from him, Jacob Parrish has been great. Sure, he had a tough time against DK Metcalf, but that happens to a young player learning both nickel and the outside.

Benjamin Morrison has played well when healthy, and that makes the rotation even stronger. Then there’s Tykee Smith, who has been dominant and is starting to look like a Pro Bowl-caliber player. Once Winfield is back, this could easily be one of the best secondaries in the league.

That’s a relief compared to Bowles’ secondaries in years past. Injuries were a big problem in past seasons, no doubt. At the same time, the miscommunications and busted coverages were maddening. We’ve barely seen them this year.

On top of all this, just one quarterback has passed for more than 250 yards against the Buccaneers defense all season. That was Dak Prescott in Week 5 on Thursday Night Football, and he was in catch-up mode down 24-10 in the second half. Aaron Rodgers came close, but he was sacked five times, and that sack yardage counts against his passing total. In a league built to help offenses, that kind of consistency is a major talking point.

Tampa Bay is also tied for eighth in the NFL with 13.0 sacks. The pressure rate and pressure totals need to climb, but that should happen if the pass rush keeps trending the way it has.

The front seven is built to complement each other

The run defense has been stout all year, but from Weeks 3-7, the Buccaneers rank fifth in rushing yards allowed per game at 78.2. Their 22.8% stuff rate ranks sixth, and their 3.9 yards per carry allowed ranks 10th.

The EPA and positive play rate numbers aren’t quite there. Some of that comes from offenses finding creative ways to run on the Bucs. A lot of it, though, is opponents getting pounded so hard up front that they abandon the run altogether.

What makes it work is how the pieces along the front seven fit together. Rueben Bain Jr. and David Walker are bendy, fast, and athletic. Yaya Diaby is the power rusher, and his bull rush led to two of his three sacks last week. Anzalone and Josiah Trotter are linebackers who can do it all and feed off each other. A’Shawn Robinson and Vea give the middle two big, strong bodies, which should free up Kancey, the quick and shifty penetrator, for one-on-ones he can exploit.

We saw how well the front seven and the back end worked together against Carolina. If it can do that at a consistent level every week, this defense has the makings of something special.

Buccaneers defense has room to grow in the critical situations

I couldn’t isolate Weeks 3-7 for third-down, fourth-down, and red zone numbers. For the full season, the Bucs rank 10th on third down (36.4% allowed), 11th on fourth down (about 44%), and 11th in the red zone (about 52.6%). Those numbers should drop if the defense keeps playing like it has and stays healthy.

The Buccaneers still have to beat the Atlanta Falcons this week. At 2-5, it’s another must-win game. But when you see what Bowles is doing with his game plans, it’s hard not to peek ahead a little. If Tampa Bay takes care of business one week at a time, we could be having entirely different conversations by December.