Vikings pivoting to Carson Wentz is the change many asked for, and the results will raise more questions
Kyler Murray’s hamstring tightness will keep him out of the game on Monday night, and it creates a new opportunity.
The inevitable has happened for the Minnesota Vikings. Quarterback Carson Wentz will start Monday night against the Buffalo Bills after Kyler Murray suffered a hamstring injury. It’s the latest twist in a frustrating season at the most important position on the roster.
The issue that hindered Murray late in the fourth quarter has been described in two words: “hamstring tightness.” That’s another way of saying he has a bum hamstring, and the extent of the damage remains unclear.
What does that mean for the future? It’s a more complicated question.
Kevin O’Connell plans on keeping Kyler Murray off IR
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said during Thursday’s press conference that injured reserve isn’t on the table.
“It’s not under consideration at all,” said O’Connell.
The most intriguing part of his explanation was his focus. It wasn’t necessarily the running that concerned him. It was the explosive movements.
“His style of play; it’s more the explosive movements, the quick twitch movements,” said O’Connell. “Running is obviously a part of some of that. He had another plus-20-yard gain the other day against Detroit. But it’s more of just the overall, his ability to impact the game. Ultimately, we could try to say all we want, ‘Hey, you can play, but you just got to stay in the pocket.’ But then football starts, and it’s an imperfect game where he’s going to react, and we don’t want to make this strain any worse than it is.”
That matters because explosiveness is what sets Murray apart. His ability to escape helps him maneuver through the pocket and extend plays. Without it, a large part of his game disappears.
If this were a playoff game, Minnesota would likely have Murray try to play through it. However, it’s one regular-season game, and the Vikings can reassess after Monday night. I’m skeptical that this is a serious injury, though hamstrings are always unpredictable. Minnesota has also been historically conservative under O’Connell with quarterback injuries, as J.J. McCarthy‘s high ankle sprain last year showed, so ruling Murray out isn’t a shock.
To me, this does not read like a soft benching. If Wentz starts again once Murray is healthy, that becomes a different conversation.
What Carson Wentz has shown
Wentz has started one game this year against the Chicago Bears, a 9-3 win in a weather game where the offense struggled to move the football.
Before that, Wentz came in after 11 plays against the Green Bay Packers. Beating Green Bay is always a welcome result, but Wentz didn’t play well. He completed 12-of-19 passes for 133 yards and three touchdown passes, and the drives behind those numbers tell a different story.
One fourth-quarter touchdown drive went for nine plays and 83 yards, which sounds solid on the surface. Three penalties kept the ball away from the Packers and extended that drive. The calls weren’t necessarily unfair, but they certainly weren’t unfavorable toward the Vikings, as two of them were ticky-tack. The other fourth-quarter scoring drives were much shorter.
The one source of hope is Justin Jefferson. Wentz feeds him, even when Jefferson is covered, and he’ll attack the middle of the field when Jefferson is the first read. If that first read is taken away, though, defenses can handle Wentz. He’s a first-read-or-dump-off quarterback, and the Vikings need someone who can work through progressions. Those issues can sometimes lead to misses.
To be fair, Murray hasn’t done much of that either. Even during the past two weeks of heavy criticism, Murray posted a positive EPA per play, landing right at league average along with his success rate. That isn’t a defense of Murray, who has been inconsistent. It’s a reminder that his play wasn’t as bad as many made it out to be, and it’s fair to wonder whether Wentz can even reach that mark.
The bigger questions around Kevin O’Connell
Even with Wentz’s fight, he still has to operate within O’Connell’s system. O’Connell has shown he can cater to his quarterbacks, adjusting route concepts to build in dump-offs for Wentz last year and making changes in the Saints game a few weeks ago. Then he reverts back to what he wants to run once the offense finds a rhythm. From the outside looking in, it’s very frustrating to watch.
I supported a J.J. McCarthy trade because the Vikings appeared done with him, and once you reach that point, it’s best to get maximum value and move on. Through five quarters, he’s looked pretty solid with the New York Giants. Anything positive he does there will reflect poorly on O’Connell.
The quarterback guru label isn’t as expansive as many hoped. There appears to be a stubbornness in how O’Connell runs this offense, when the priority should be maximizing the roster as constructed rather than chasing his ideal plan.
I don’t believe Wentz is the answer, and both the film and data supports that. With Murray, the more data we got in this offense, the more questions emerged about both him and O’Connell. Now Minnesota can only hope something sparks, or a 6-0 start could turn into a lost season.
