Coming out of the 2024 season, the Minnesota Vikings’ quarterback position felt like it had two correct answers in keeping Sam Darnold or going with the 10th overall pick, J.J. McCarthy, who showed a lot of promise.

Both decisions made a lot of sense at the time, and Darnold failing at the end of the season made the decision easier. Since they chose McCarthy over Darnold, the former was traded to the New York Giants for a ham sandwich (5th-round pick), and the latter won a Super Bowl as the starting quarterback.

All of the decisions they made led to Kyler Murray, and you can make a strong argument they were all wrong.

Kyler Murray has put Kevin O’Connell in a conundrum

When the Vikings added Murray, it essentially ended McCarthy’s time in Minnesota and gave head coach Kevin O’Connell another opportunity to pick his quarterback. This is essentially O’Connell’s fourth quarterback after choosing to move on from Darnold, McCarthy, and, before them, Kirk Cousins.

I’m not going to beat around the bush: Murray hasn’t been good enough for the Vikings. Only once this season has Murray helped the Vikings put up more than 20 points on offense: 23-13 against the New Orleans Saints. Within those games, Murray has shown a lot of improvement, but nowhere near enough to feel confident that the Vikings have their guy.

The last two weeks have been viewed as the most frustrating so far, as the eye test was at times brutal. Murray has been leaving big plays on the field due to turning them down and his inaccuracies. Even so, when you look at the box scores, they really aren’t that bad.

Stat	Vs. Colts	At Lions
Completion %	58.3%	58.6%
Yards	150	210
Touchdowns	1	2
Interceptions	0	1
Rushing Yards	39	35
EPA/Play	0.16	0.06
Success Rate	44%	51%
aDOT	8.8	11.4

Murray’s completion percentage was at its lowest over the last two weeks after peaking at 80% against the New Orleans Saints. Overall, the stats look pretty solid, albeit not great. They are ones you can work with and win football games. So, why doesn’t the eye test match?

I think the answer is multi-faceted. First off, let’s start with the issues with Murray. He is struggling to see things down the field. It’s not because he’s short; Murray isn’t trusting what is happening down the field. The routes that O’Connell calls with anticipation aren’t being hit by Murray. Not trusting Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison on those routes is a major problem, and likely isn’t one that will be solved anytime soon.

Murray is also spraying the ball when he is throwing it. Accuracy has always been his thing, and seeing him forget how to do the one thing that’s been his calling card is the most puzzling element of the discussion. It raises a litany of other questions about Murray and the offense as a whole.

That’s where we come to the biggest question of them all: is this more about Murray or O’Connell?

It’s no secret that Murray hasn’t been great so far this season, even though there have been flashes. The real issue with the Vikings is O’Connell’s offense. Is it too smart for its own good?

We see the concepts working down the field on the all-22, and how good O’Connell’s shot plays can be, especially the in-breaking concepts. It worked really well with Darnold under center, as he had the same kind of mentality that O’Connell did.

However, the last two seasons have been disastrous on offense.

McCarthy flashed some throws, but struggled to maintain composure in the pocket while those routes developed; some of those were muddy due to offensive line play. That has translated to whoever is playing quarterback. In fact, we often find O’Connell chasing these shot plays instead of focusing on moving the football and sustaining drives. Add in the lack of a successful rushing attack during his tenure, and we have a lot of major questions about what O’Connell actually does well.

Even with some subtle shifts in his play calling to appease Murray, O’Connell’s approach has been the same: attack vertically with shot plays. Where are his efforts to sustain possession of the football? It was good against the Saints, but that style, which objectively worked, dissipated quickly after the bye week.

Along with that, O’Connell doesn’t have the same level of creativity to create targets for his star receiver Jefferson in the way that other top minds have done so. Sean McVay is a master at getting Puka Nacua the football, as is Brian Schottenheimer with CeeDee Lamb and Zac Taylor with Ja’Marr Chase. Where is that level of creativity?

We were sold the “illusion of complexity” with O’Connell, and it makes a lot of sense, but when the simple elements aren’t there, how great is trying to fool the defense when it’s not being successful? The Vikings are 30th in EPA/play and 31st in success rate one season after being 21st in both categories, and 2025 was even worse in dropback EPA, ranking 28th in the league.

When we look at what’s going on with the Vikings’ offense, Murray is going to get the blame, and it’s warranted, but are we missing the forest for the trees? Maybe O’Connell’s the one at fault, and we haven’t been paying enough attention.

Making a change at quarterback is one thing, but I don’t think the Vikings will be able to make the change necessary to fix this offense.

“We’re into November now, and we got to start working with the same urgency we’ve had. Preparation has been really good, continuing to wait for that consistent four quarters of good football and see what that looks like,” said O’Connell after the game.

If the preparation is good and the offense continues to be “really close,” maybe O’Connell and the Vikings need to look inward as to why they are playing poorly.