The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are about to play their biggest game of the 2026 season as they take on the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on Sunday Night Football. A month ago, this looked like a game to dread. Now, there’s palpable, and warranted, excitement heading into the primetime matchup.

There’s one mistake the Bucs can’t afford to make, though, and it falls on play-caller Zac Robinson: The Bears have a leaky secondary, and it’s going to be tempting to attack it through the air.

Robinson can’t take the bait and abandon the run game. Not this week.

The Bucs’ running game is the backbone of this offense

The argument starts with what Tampa Bay does best. Heading into Week 9, the Buccaneers lead the NFL with 168.6 rushing yards per game. They’re tied with the Kansas City Chiefs at 5.1 rushing yards per play, and they lead the league with 35 rushes of 10 or more yards.

The underlying numbers back it up, too. The Bucs rank third in rush yards over expected at 0.7, eighth in yards before contact, and third in yards after contact per carry.

Bucky Irving, Kenneth Gainwell, and the ground game have been the strength of this offense all season long. If Tampa Bay wants to keep pace with Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson’s offense, the run game has to be the foundation of the game plan.

Even if it’s not the dynamic product we’ve seen over the last two weeks – the Buccaneers must stick with the ground game unless the flow or script just absolutely calls for something else.

Why the Bears’ secondary is so tempting

Chicago’s cornerbacks haven’t held up well. Jaylon Johnson is supposed to be the team’s No. 1 corner, but he’s in the top 3 to 5 in yards allowed no matter where you look, whether it’s PFF, Next Gen Stats, or Sports Info Solutions. He’s allowed 427 yards with no interceptions, a 119.6 passer rating when targeted, and a 68.6% catch rate, per Next Gen Stats. 

Tyrique Stevenson isn’t faring much better. Among qualified defenders, he leads the league with five touchdowns allowed. He also has no interceptions, a 58.1% catch rate allowed, and a 135.5 passer rating when targeted.

Malik Muhammad has been Chicago’s best corner, but he’s been limited with a toe injury. It’s unclear if he’ll play, even after he was limited all of last week with the same issue. Kyler Gordon just returned to action, so his impact over a longer stretch is still to be determined.

It’s easy to look at those numbers and want to sling it around the yard. The Bucs’ passing attack does need to find a rhythm. Baker Mayfield has thrown only 14 passes over the last two weeks combined since returning from his thumb injury and the attack has been inconsistent all year.

Emeka Egbuka logged a full practice on Thursday, which only adds to the temptation. I’m not saying the Buccaneers need to completely abandon the pass, that would be silly. They certainly need to take their shots. Just don’t base the game plan around attacking Johnson and Co. Even if the Bears are good against the run.

Stick with the run and win the trenches

The Bears’ front is a good unit against the run. You could argue part of the reason is that teams would rather throw on Chicago’s secondary than run into that front. Staying committed to the ground game keeps the defense honest.

Even if it’s a 3-0 game and the Bucs are averaging two yards per carry, they can’t abandon the run unless the game gets out of hand. What Irving, Gainwell, and the ground game have done over the last two weeks is plenty of reason to keep Mayfield from dropping back six, seven, or eight straight times.

That will be easier said than done with Jeffrey Simmons in the picture. Cody Mauch, Graham Barton, and Ben Bredeson have to be on their game. If Simmons is collapsing the interior and forcing Mayfield to roll out, it’s not a situation the Buccaneers want any part of, even with Mayfield’s knack for escaping trouble.

If Robinson moves away from the run without the game script calling for it, it’ll be coaching malpractice. It’ll also reopen questions about how competent he is as an in-game play-caller.

There’s no rush to fix the passing game this week. Tampa Bay has a bye after this game, then faces the Detroit Lions in Week 11. Detroit has one of the worst secondaries in the league, barring a move before the trade deadline. That’s plenty of time to work on the passing attack.

I expect a close game. Chicago has won three straight against the Falcons, Patriots, and Seahawks, with the last two coming in primetime. Meanwhile, the Bucs are 3-1 over the last month and trending up in DVOA and point differential. I don’t see the Bears winning by more than a touchdown, and it could even turn into a double-digit Bucs win if things break right.

The main point stands: if it takes 45 carries between Irving, Gainwell, and Sean Tucker again, Robinson needs to make it happen. And there’s a good chance the Buccaneers win this game if it does in fact happen.