The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head north to Soldier Field for a Sunday night showdown with the Chicago Bears in Week 9, and it’s easily the biggest test of their season so far. The Bears are 6-2, quarterback Caleb Williams is playing lights out, and Chicago just added Jeffery Simmons to the middle of its defensive line.

The Buccaneers sit at 3-5, but this feels like a much bigger game than the records suggest. It’s also the last game before Tampa Bay’s bye week, so a win or a loss could go a long way in shaping how the rest of the season plays out.

A to Z Sports’ Bears writer Kole Noble joined me to break down the matchup, and there’s plenty to unpack.

Jeffery Simmons and Caleb Williams have Chicago rolling

Bears general manager Ryan Poles sent two first-round picks and a fourth-round pick to land Simmons, and the return showed up right away. Simmons led the entire defensive line in snaps in his debut against the Seahawks on Monday night, recording a sack and multiple tackles for a loss. Seattle averaged about three yards per play with Simmons on the field compared to roughly 13 yards with him off of it.

Simmons can truly elevate a defense to another level. He’s a power player with quickness, and that creates an automatic matchup to watch against a Buccaneers interior that has struggled with power players.

Then there’s Williams. The former No. 1 overall pick is completing over 70% of his passes, and over the last three weeks he ranks third in the NFL at 73.8%, behind only Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford. The Bears are also second in the league in yards after catch in games Williams plays. In other words: he’s doing exactly what Bears coach Ben Johnson wants.

“I saw Albert Breer say he’s more Clark Kent right now than Superman,” Noble said. “But when they need Superman, we can still see that.”

Williams showed it in Seattle, escaping a sure sack and firing a strike over the middle to Rome Odunze. That’s going to matter against a Buccaneers defense that has rattled the last four quarterbacks it has faced. It took Aaron Rodgers 17 straight passes and an extra quarter to figure things out. Bryce Young and the Panthers didn’t run a viable play in Buccaneers territory until midway through the third quarter. Then the Falcons went 0-for-12 on third down.

The blueprint for slowing Williams is simple: speed up the clock, take away his first read, and get pressure quickly. Brian Flores did that in Week 2, throwing disguised looks and blitz packages at Williams, and Chicago couldn’t get anything going. The Bears have rarely taken deep shots this year, which could make forcing those throws a smart strategy for Tampa Bay.

Where the Buccaneers can attack the Bears

Chicago’s run game is the backbone of Johnson’s offense, but it hasn’t been hitting the explosive plays he wants. D’Andre Swift scored three touchdowns last week, though he has rarely broken free for those 10- or 12-yard carries. Kyle Monangai is still dealing with a turf toe injury, and Johnson said he didn’t want to put him on injured reserve. The expectation is the Bears will rest Monangai this week and use the bye to get him back for Week 11 against the Saints.

That’s a good thing for the Buccaneers, whose front seven has been on point against the run all year. The one concern is missed tackles from Alex Anzalone and Josiah Trotter, although most of those have come against the pass.

The bigger opportunity is in Chicago’s secondary, which has struggled all year long. Outside corners Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson both rank in the bottom 20 in PFF coverage grade, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba gave them fits Monday night. Rookie fourth-round pick Malik Muhammad has been the better option, but he missed last week with a toe injury.

That matters even more because Emeka Egbuka logged a full practice on Thursday, which has him on track to play. Tampa Bay shouldn’t feel like it has to throw the ball. However, if there’s a week for Baker Mayfield and the passing game to take their shots, this is it.

Final score prediction

Kole: The primetime spotlight keeps Chicago from falling into a trap game, especially with Simmons making his Soldier Field debut. The Bears have scored 30-plus points in every game since Williams returned, and I see them topping 30 again in a runaway victory.

Evan: I see it differently. Defense and the running game travel, and that’s exactly how the Buccaneers are winning right now. Even without Egbuka, they’ve outscored their last two opponents 59-13. The Bears have won big games against the Patriots and Seahawks, but they still have to prove they can stack wins against a team doing this many things well.

I could easily have egg on my face, but I think this is the Buccaneers’ season-defining win. It won’t be a blowout by any means. Give me Tampa Bay, 23-20.