The Dallas Cowboys host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, and on paper, this matchup sets up much differently than the Arizona Cardinals game did. The Colts have weaknesses Dallas can attack on offense and on defense.

But I need to start with a disclaimer.

You can study an opponent’s stats, find its struggles, and circle the areas the Cowboys should exploit. Then game day comes, and none of it shows up when it comes to this team. That comes down to a lack of consistency, game planning, and execution, which is the same theme the Cowboys DT Quinn Williams kept repeating in a recent interview with the media.

So take all of this with a grain of salt. Dallas is 3-5 for a reason. The Cowboys have stacked wins together only once since the start of 2025, and they have yet to do it in 2026. When Sunday arrives, the numbers rarely seem to matter for this team, and that is the biggest reason to worry about its fate.

Still, I think the numbers and the film are worth a look, because I expect them to dictate how this one goes.

No. 1: The Colts’ run game is a familiar threat

The Cowboys need to brace for a familiar foe, because Indianapolis can run the football.

Last weekend’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars doesn’t tell the whole story. The Jaguars jumped out early, the Colts had to abandon the run, and RB Jonathan Taylor finished with only eight carries. Over the full season, however, the Colts own a Top-5 rushing offense in EPA per play, via Sumer Sports. 

They rank just 15th in rushing success rate, however, and that fits the film. The Colts’ offensive line has been inconsistent as a run-blocking unit, so plenty of runs go nowhere. Their stuffed run rate sits near league average. But Taylor makes up for it with explosive plays. He’s one of the league leaders in runs of 10-plus yards with 18.

That should make Cowboys fans nervous. Dallas just watched Cardinals RB Tyler Allgeier rip off a 62-yard touchdown run followed by a 53-yard run on back-to-back plays. Taylor is a step up in competition.

The good news? Taylor ranks only 36th in yards after contact. If the Cowboys wrap up and bring him down, they have a chance.

The Colts’ offense runs through the ground game. Indianapolis is one of the most pressured teams in the NFL, its pass protection is lackluster, and it ranks 30th in EPA per dropback. Dallas should sell out against the run and make QB Daniel Jones beat it through the air.

No. 2: Dallas should be able to run, but it has to adapt

Here’s the thing about the Cardinals game: the Cowboys refused to adjust. They couldn’t run the ball for four quarters and still opened overtime with a first-down rush. Late in the fourth quarter, they came out in heavy run looks and tried play action on second down even though Arizona had zero reason to respect the run.

With this much talent on offense, failing to adapt is not justifiable.

This week, though, running the football makes sense (as long as they don’t do so stubbornly). The Colts rank 31st in EPA per play against the run and give up explosive plays. Their front just lost DT DeForest Buckner, and their linebacker group is a gigantic question mark.

Indianapolis does have DT Grover Stewart, a solid run defender. His battle with the Cowboys interior O-line made up of Cooper Beebe, Tyler Booker, and Tyler Smith is a matchup to watch. Ideally, the offensive line puts together a game like the one it had against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 7.

No. 3: Clean pockets and honest coverage

The Colts also rank among the NFL’s worst at pressuring the quarterback. So the offensive line should shine in pass protection, too.

Indianapolis has two big-name cornerbacks in Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward, but neither has played up to his name. They might be, in air quotes, the “strength” of a defense that has been one of the league’s worst. The Colts play a lot of man coverage, and their safeties rank among the worst groups in the NFL.

If Dak Prescott gets clean pockets, how many shots does he take against those corners? I’d go after them.

I’d also expect the Colts to play copycat and borrow what worked for the Buccaneers, the Packers, and even the Cardinals, who used simulated pressures and exotic blitz looks to slow the Cowboys’ passing game. From what I’ve seen on film, though, that isn’t Indianapolis’ identity. This defense plays honest.

So I expect a much better day for the Dallas offense against a team that can’t stop the run, can’t pressure the quarterback, and leans heavily on man coverage.

They have to take advantage of it. Otherwise, you can pack it up and start thinking about 2027.