The New York Giants are my pick to pry Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor loose before the NFL trade deadline. Taylor has been the biggest mystery on the trade market, and his situation has frozen the running back market since the week began.

On the latest episode of 13 Personnel with Austin Stanley and Joe DeLeone, I built a Taylor trade that sends the star running back to New York. The final price is steep enough that Indianapolis should at least pick up the phone.

I have some history with Taylor. I actually coached against him when he was in high school, back when he was playing Group 1 football here in New Jersey. After watching the film before that game, I knew it was going to be a long night. Not much has changed since then.

Building the Jonathan Taylor trade

My first version of the deal was simple. The Colts would send Taylor and a 2027 fifth-round pick to New York. In return, the Giants would send a 2027 second-round pick and a 2028 sixth-round pick to Indianapolis.

The trade simulator called that one even. The pushback on the show came fast, and it was fair. Nobody expects Indianapolis to land a first-round pick for a running back. Even so, that package looks far too light for a player of Taylor’s caliber.

The bigger issue is where the Colts’ asking price reportedly started. The reported starting point was a package like the Christian McCaffrey trade, which means a second-, third-, fourth-, and fifth-round pick.

Indianapolis has also already turned down an offer that included a second-round pick and another selection. With that in mind, it’s hard to believe the Colts would toss in a fifth-round pick of their own.

It also sounds like Indianapolis doesn’t really want to move Taylor at all. That is why the Colts appear to be building a massive market. They want to see if a desperate contender goes all in.

So the deal changed. The Colts’ fifth-round pick came out, and the 2028 sixth-round pick became a 2028 third-round pick. The final framing is a 2027 second-round pick and a 2028 third-round pick for Taylor. Historically, that tilts the deal toward Indianapolis. The simulator also can’t account for a bidding war, and a bidding war is exactly what the Colts are trying to create.

Would the Giants actually make this deal?

Joe covers the Giants closely, and he was torn. He hates the idea of giving up both a second- and a third-round pick. He knows a portion of the fan base shrugs at day-two picks, but those selections matter for building a roster if you draft well.

Depth is the real problem in New York. The Giants don’t have many issues at the starting spots. Injuries, however, have exposed thin depth at defensive tackle, defensive back, wide receiver, and offensive line.

Joe would have been all for a second-round pick paired with a fourth or fifth. The second-and-third version makes him queasy, but he would still sign off. The deal gives New York a superstar running back for the next three years to go alongside its superstar wide receiver.

There is real risk here. Running backs tend to fall off a cliff without much warning, and Taylor turns 27 in this window. Not everyone ages like Derrick Henry, who is the exception to the rule. Still, a three-year window with a back this talented is worth the gamble for a team that thinks it can win now.

Why Indianapolis should take New York’s offer

The case for the Colts may be even stronger. The Giants could win the division, but they look like a team that would lose its wild card game. That matters because Indianapolis is hearing from several suitors, including the Vikings, Seahawks, 49ers, and Broncos.

If the Colts move Taylor, they should want the second-round pick from the team they project to win the fewest playoff games. New York fits that profile better than the rest of the field. A higher second-round pick gives Indianapolis a better shot at reshaping its roster.

The Colts hold every card in this negotiation, and they know it. If they decide to sell, the Giants offer the type of draft capital that could age well for Indianapolis. We will see if anyone blinks before the deadline.