The New York Giants are back on Thursday Night Football, and once again it’s against an NFC East opponent. This time, the Washington Commanders are coming to town with a chance to play spoiler on a short week.

For the Giants, this is another opportunity to add to their lead in the division. Washington sees it differently. Catching New York slightly off guard and clipping them on Thursday night could be the momentum builder the Commanders need to make a run at the division and flip the second half of their season.

Things have been tough in Washington. Jayden Daniels got hurt early in the year, and the Commanders followed that with a brutal stretch. They lost to the Rams 20-13 and the 49ers 23-17, though both games stayed within one score. 

Jayden Daniels is the Giants’ biggest problem

The one thing that has consistently given the Giants trouble is mobile quarterbacks. They’ve been depleted at linebacker and remain weak at safety outside of Jevon Holland. That combination has created issues when quarterbacks escape the pocket.

Daniels was highly successful as a rusher in the first meeting. New York still sacked him five times, which paints the picture of how often they got after him. Washington’s offensive line is quite bad at the moment, and despite all of that, Daniels still produced 103 yards on the ground. Joe Milton’s most successful plays for the Eagles against the Giants also came when he scrambled and extended plays as a runner, finishing with 64 rushing.

The Giants need to play much stronger in contain. This doesn’t feel like a game where they can take away everything else, let Daniels run free, and hope the rest of Washington’s offense falls apart.

Daniels has also been careful with the football. He has zero interceptions and seven passing touchdowns. Once he gains confidence, he opens up everything else for this offense.

Thankfully for New York, the supporting cast is thin. Washington has struggled to run the football, and its receiver room is incredibly depleted. Rookie Antonio Williams out of Clemson has been an intriguing piece, but Stefon Diggs is simply too old to be the impact player he once was. If the Giants lose this game, it will be because Daniels goes off on the ground while their defenders are out of position and fail to keep him in front of them.

The Giants need to run the rock

The other side of this matchup is where the Giants can win it. The Commanders’ run defense has been abysmal, ranking 30th in EPA per rush allowed. Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw are both on injured reserve, which explains a lot of that collapse.

The problem is that the Giants have been banged up at running back since moving on from Najee Harris. Tyrone Tracy Jr. went down, Cam Skattebo was unavailable, and Devin Singletary is limited in what he can do. The expectation is that Skattebo will play coming off his hamstring issue, and his presence is critical. In my eyes, the Giants need a 120-yard team rushing performance to win this game.

Washington has also been bad against the pass, sitting 30th in passing yards allowed per game. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely both have big nights, especially with the Commanders’ struggles covering tight ends in the red zone. Still, the key avenue is protecting the football, with no more late fumbles, and slowing the game down.