College Football Playoff Rankings: Alabama’s loss to Oklahoma sets up wild finish where 10-2 teams might not make the bracket
The College Football Playoff bracket could exclude 10+ win teams like Vanderbilt, BYU, Utah, Miami, and more if things shake out just right
The College Football Playoff rankings are going to continue shuffling every week now as the final two weeks of the regular season play out. The playoff committee has made some strange decisions already so far, so it’s time to see if we can set the bracket straight once again.
Our team at A to Z Sports has decided to do our own top 25 playoff rankings every week since the committee continues to disappoint. We then break down our top 12, and staff members who cover many of the teams involved lay out their arguments for or against their current playoff seeding. Enjoy!
Key stats that impacted the A to Z Sports College Football Playoff Rankings
- We dropped Alabama to 10th overall due to the loss to Oklahoma, their failure to rush for over 2.5 yards per carry the second week in a row, and Ty Simpson’s efficiency struggles two of the last three weeks (barely seven yards per attempt)
- Our staff bumped the Oklahoma Sooners up above Notre Dame as yet another strong win against a top tier opponent moves their strength of schedule and record well above and beyond the Irish
- Ole Miss deserves to be in the five spot over Texas Tech thanks to their fifth highest strength of record in the nation and their nearly 500 yards of offense per game despite the tough SEC schedule
- James Madison’s mix of top ten offense and top five defense in the country (before adjusting for schedule strength) made them the easy choice yet again as the Group of 5 conference winner representative
A to Z Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings
- Ohio State (Playoff Seed: 1)
- Indiana (2)
- Texas A&M (3)
- Georgia (4)
- Ole Miss (5)
- Texas Tech (6)
- Oregon (7)
- Oklahoma (8)
- Notre Dame (9)
- Alabama (10)
- Utah
- BYU
- Vanderbilt
- Georgia Tech (11)
- Miami
- USC
- Michigan
- Texas
- Tennessee
- Virginia
- James Madison (12)
- North Texas
- Missouri
- Navy
- Tulane
The top four seem to be absolutely undeniable this week in Ohio State (unanimous #1 by our staff yet again), Indiana, Texas A&M, and Georgia. There is debate as to whether Indiana or Texas A&M should be number two, but either option works for now.
Our staff is extremely bullish on the Ole Miss Rebels, their offense, and the team’s ability to keep winning despite all of the off-field noise about Lane Kiffin potentially leaving.
We had to drop the Alabama Crimson Tide down to ten this week, but it’s not an indictment of their talent or upside. Everyone else just keeps winning around them and their offense looked absolutely abysmal for much of the Sooners loss.
This is going to be a wild finish now to see who steals the last couple at-large bids for the College Football Playoff. Several teams have a serious path to finishing 10-2 (or better, like BYU) and still missing out on the playoffs. Vanderbilt, Utah, BYU, Miami, and more could all finish 10-2 or better and possibly fall just short, which would be crazy to see.
The ACC is still a mess, and our staff was quite split as to whether Georgia Tech or Miami should be the stand-in representative for this week. Right now the ACC looks like a one-bid league unless Miami gets a lot of help as an at-large bid down the stretch.
Finally, our rankings likely differ from the committee’s on the back end because we couldn’t help but rank four non-power conference teams. James Madison has been the most dominant. North Texas should be the AAC favorite. However, Navy and Tulane are not out of the picture just yet.
(1) Ohio State Buckeyes
“The Ohio State Buckeyes are in a position this year where they haven’t needed to worry much about the College Football Playoff rankings. Ohio State is 10-0 on the season, coming off a 48-10 win over the UCLA Bruins, and there’s been real no debate on them being anywhere but No. 1 in the country. The Buckeyes haven’t truly been tested since Week 1 against the Texas Longhorns, and even then, they admitted afterward that they didn’t open up the offense. Ohio State must take care of business as they should against Rutgers before their major matchup with the Michigan Wolverines. The Buckeyes’ first goal of the season can be accomplished against Michigan, and a win there could propel them into their College Football Playoff run.” – Brandon Little, A to Z Sports Ohio State
(2) Indiana Hoosiers
“I continue to rank Indiana as the second best team in the country, behind only Ohio State. On top of having the current Heisman favorite under center in Fernando Mendoza, their rushing attack has been strong. They are third in the Big Ten with 218.4 rushing yards per game, only behind Oregon and Michigan. They have experienced some regression on the offensive line with star guard Drew Evans sidelined, but the hope is that he returns by the Big Ten championship. On the defensive side of the ball, they are second only to Ohio State in points allowed per game at less than 12, and rushing yards allowed per game at 82.5. The Hoosiers and Buckeyes seem to be on a crash course for Indianapolis, and when you look at the numbers, it’ll be a clash of the top two teams in the country for the Big Ten title.” – Destin Adams, A to Z Sports Indianapolis
(3) Texas A&M Aggies
“Texas A&M’s goal is simple from here on out: keep winning. If A&M runs the table (i.e. beating Texas) and then wins the SEC Championship, they are guaranteed at least the 2-seed and could even earn the 1-seed depending on other results. Aside from the satisfaction of beating bitter rival Texas and then unseating the top Dawgs (pun intended) in the SEC, nabbing that two or higher seed could help propel a deep title run. After their first round bye, the Aggies could have a chance at playing Oregon, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, or Texas Tech with the 2-seed. If they get stuck at 3 or 4, they could end up playing Georgia (again), Ole Miss, or Alabama instead. While those are still winnable games, there’s an entirely different degree of difficulty to those that I’m sure A&M would rather avoid for as long as possible. For an A&M squad off to their most promising start since they went 12-0 in 1992, winning the national championship is the goal, and the more obstacles they can remove along their way, the better.” – AJ Schulte, A to Z Sports Oklahoma
(4) Georgia Bulldogs
“The Georgia Bulldogs have posted back to back weeks of impressive pass rush on defense, finally. Gunner Stockton has entered into legitimate Heisman conversations at quarterback. The ground game is getting back on track. Kirby Smart has his team not only winning, but actually controlling games weekly now. This version of the Georgia Bulldogs is what fans are used to seeing. The first eight games were up and down, but now it seems this squad is ready for the College Football Playoff. What’s wild about their current standing is that they could still miss out on the SEC Championship Game because of their head to head loss to Alabama if things break just a certain way between several conference opponents (due to tie-breakers). Missing the conference championship game might actually be the best outcome for them if Georgia wants to make sure they secure a first round bye. All they have to do is beat Charlotte and Georgia Tech.” – Travis May, A to Z Sports College Football & NFL Draft Managing Editor
(5) Ole Miss Rebels
“Lane Kiffin has his offense averaging nearly 500 yards per game. Ole Miss is 10-1. Their only loss came to Georgia in Athens. This team is every bit deserving of the five seed right now. All they need to do is defeat Mississippi State and they likely get to face off against an 11 or 12 seed in the first round. If Georgia has the four, the Rebels might have a path to a grudge match against the Bulldogs in round two, which would be extremely fun to see. Ole Miss had Georgia on the ropes in the first game, scoring five touchdowns in a row in their house. That would be a tough effort to follow, but Ole Miss’ offense might be the best in the country with Kewan Lacy breaking records at running back and Trinidad Chambliss looking like a possible pro at quarterback.” – Travis May, A to Z Sports College Football & NFL Draft Managing Editor
(6) Texas Tech Red Raiders
“Texas Tech should probably be capped at the six seed, but if they beat West Virginia and then win the Big 12 as expected the committee might nudge them up into the first round bye territory ahead of the losers in the Big Ten and SEC Championship games. The Red Raiders’ season has been wildly impressive, don’t get me wrong. However, their final strength of schedule metrics are going to rank dead last among the top ten College Football Playoff teams by a good margin. That doesn’t mean their elite pass rush featuring future first round pick David Bailey and (likely mid-round talent) Romello Height won’t wreck somebody’s offensive line in the playoffs, but there are questions about how this team will fair against the best of the best.” – Travis May, A to Z Sports College Football & NFL Draft Managing Editor
(7) Oregon Ducks
“Oregon’s path to a top five seed isn’t a super clear one, but it does exist. It most likely involves them finding a way to win the Big Ten conference championship. That’s not an easy task at all considering they still have work to earn a berth. If they do manage to do so, I believe the committee may give them the nod over Texas Tech for that spot, given they win out as well. Then it comes down to Ole Miss. Amid all of this unknown surrounding Lane Kiffin, you have to wonder if that affects his team’s play down the stretch. They’re favorites in the Egg Bowl, but we all know how ridiculous that matchup can be. Not to mention, they don’t hold their own keys when it comes to an SEC title game appearance as of now either.” – Adam Holt, A to Z Sports New Orleans Saints and LSU
(8) Oklahoma Sooners
“The Oklahoma Sooners are really starting to put together a great resume. They have the win over Auburn, which was ranked at the time with a pretty elite defense. They also have a ranked win over the Michigan Wolverines, who aren’t playing their best football right now, but continue to find a way to win. Then they went to two of the toughest places to play on the road against Tennessee and Alabama, winning those back-to-back games. Who else has done that? Sure, there are better resumes, but teams like Oregon, Texas Tech, and a few others haven’t done nearly as much with their schedule as the Sooners have. I know their record isn’t better than some of the teams above them, but their only losses are to Ole Miss and Texas (both strong opponents). Oklahoma is tied with Alabama for the most ranked AP wins on the year (four). They deserve to be ranked inside the top eight, for now.” – Justin Churchill, A to Z Sports Oklahoma
(9) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
“Notre Dame is a team that is somewhat hard to gauge right now. They played their two hardest games of the season during the first two weeks, and suffered two losses by four combined points. Since then, the Fighting Irish have been taking care of business and dominating teams that they should dominate. During the team’s eight game winning streak, they’ve won by at least two scores every single time. This campaign mirrors the 2024 team’s in several ways heading into the playoffs, except this group is even more talented for HC Marcus Freeman. Given how players like CJ Carr and Jeremiyah Love have continued to grow, this team could be dangerous heading into the postseason.” – Ryan Roberts, A to Z Sports Notre Dame
(10) Alabama Crimson Tide
“Now what? That’s the question that Alabama players and coaches are asking themselves this week. Obviously, the simple answer is to just win out. Eastern Illinois serves as an appetizer to the Iron Bowl, which is a must-win game for Alabama to make the SEC championship. And that’s where Alabama gets back into the CFP home game conversation. If the Crimson Tide can win out and then beat a team like Texas A&M in Atlanta, it would be hard to argue against Alabama as a top eight seed, if not higher. Sure, two losses aren’t ideal, but everything is still out in front of Alabama.” – Rob Gregson, A to Z Sports Alabama
(11) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
“I have Georgia Tech lower than most. I’m still not impressed with a Jackets team that should be 8-2 if the Wake Forest game was properly officiated. Tech slogged through a last-second 36-34 win against Boston College last Saturday that any true CFP contender would have won in a blowout (SMU won there 45-13 the week before). Tech will have a chance to prove themselves in the most direct way possible though. They are in the ACC title game with a win over Pitt on Saturday and will then be just one win away from making the playoff as the ACC champion. They also get a shot at perhaps a home game in the playoff if they can somehow upset Georgia on Thanksgiving weekend. I’ll wager Tech makes the field as the ACC champion (mostly because Miami can’t get there, and I like Tech better than Virginia), but they’ll prove they’re still not one of the best 12 teams against Georgia and a quick whimper of an exit in the playoff.” – Craig Smith, A to Z Sports Tennessee
(12) James Madison Dukes
It’s going to be a really interesting battle for the Group of Five conference spot after the losses by both the Memphis Tigers and South Florida Bulls. Things are getting a little bloody in the American right now. Navy has two losses with one of them to North Texas, who lost to South Florida, who lost to both Navy and Memphis, and the Tigers and Midshipmen play each other during rivalry week. If North Texas can make the AAC Championship with their explosive offense led by two freshmen in quarterback Drew Mestemaker and running back Caleb Hawkins they’re in the best position. The ideal scenario is getting South Florida in the conference championship game so they can get their win back, but Navy is the more likely opponent, and the Mean Green won 31-17 earlier this year. However, James Madison continues to hold the top spot for me, and they are dominating their competition. Their only loss was a 14 point game at Louisville in Week 2. Since then they have put up 52 or more points in three of the last four games (and the fourth still saw them score 35). They can put up points on anyone at their level and deserve a chance totry their hand in the College Football Playoff. – Tyler Forness, A to Z Sports Florida
We’ll be back with more College Football coverage here at A to Z Sports every day of the year! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!
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