The Iowa Hawkeyes are 5-2 overall and 2-2 in the Big Ten. The team and its fan base hoped to avoid a couple of those losses. Even so, Iowa still has a path to the 2026 College Football Playoff and a shot at a National Championship among the 12 teams.

Is it a big chance? No. According to A to Z Sports’ new College Football Playoff Predictor, the Hawkeyes have only a 9% chance of making the playoff. The simulator also gives Iowa:

• Less than a 1% chance to win the Big Ten – A 1% chance to reach the conference championship game – Less than a 1% chance to earn a first-round bye – Less than a 1% chance to win the national title

That’s perfectly fine. Those numbers are a snapshot of where things stand right now, and Iowa has the rest of the season to improve them.

What the Hawkeyes need over the next 2 weeks

The first step is simple: win. Iowa takes on No. 25 Wisconsin in Week 9, and the simulator views that game as a coin flip, giving the Hawkeyes a 50% chance to win. A win would push Iowa’s playoff odds from 9% to 16%.

Then in Week 10, the Hawkeyes face Northwestern. The predictor gives them a 40% chance to win that one, but a win would bump their playoff odds to 23%. That’s a much better place to be.

The bigger picture is even clearer. At 10-2, Iowa’s odds of making the playoff jump to 73%. At 9-3, they fall to 4%. In other words, the Hawkeyes have to win out. One more loss, and they probably won’t make it.

If Iowa wins out and gets help around the conference to reach the Big Ten title game, the picture changes dramatically. According to the simulator, a win in that game gives the Hawkeyes a 99% chance to make the playoff. Even a loss would leave them at 71%.

Iowa’s rooting guide from now until Week 13

Winning its own games is only part of the equation. Here’s what Iowa fans should be pulling for elsewhere, according to the predictor:

• Week 9: Oregon over Northwestern (adds 1% to Iowa’s playoff odds) – Week 10: Illinois over Nebraska (adds 1%) – Week 12: Minnesota over Northwestern (adds 2%) – Week 12: Washington over Indiana (adds 2%) – Week 13: Georgia Tech over Georgia

That last one is probably asking for a lot. Still, the Hawkeyes need a lot of help, and it is possible.

The 3 teams Iowa needs to lose that aren’t on its schedule

If the Hawkeyes win out against Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois, and Nebraska, fans won’t need to worry about rooting against those teams. Iowa will take care of that part itself. So who does Iowa need to lose that it doesn’t play? The answer comes down to three teams.

Minnesota: The Golden Gophers just beat Iowa 13-10 last week in what was a great game for them, and the Hawkeyes now need Minnesota to lose from here on out. Sure, a Minnesota run to the playoffs would make that loss look better on Iowa’s resume. However, both teams sit at 5-2, and you want every team with the same record as you to start losing.

USC: The Trojans are 6-2 and face Ohio State this week. Ohio State is missing quarterback Julian Sayin, so this is a game USC could win. Iowa fans need to be firmly in the Buckeyes’ corner.

Michigan: The Wolverines are 4-3, but they are talented enough to make noise if they win out. A finish like that would include a win over Ohio State, giving Michigan a strong enough resume to have a shot at the playoff. Iowa needs the Wolverines to stumble.

Regardless of how the rest of the Big Ten shakes out, the formula for the Hawkeyes is straightforward. Win out, keep an eye on Minnesota, USC, and Michigan, and see where the predictor lands by Week 13. Iowa’s odds are slim right now, but two wins in the next two weeks would make this conversation a lot more serious.