LSU Tigers quarterback Sam Leavitt enters the 2026 college football season with significant hype from NFL scouts and fans alike, but the former Arizona State signal caller’s transition to Baton Rouge under new head coach Lane Kiffin deserves far more skepticism than it has received.

Leavitt, who transferred to LSU this offseason after an injury-plagued 2025 campaign with the Sun Devils, is being graded by some NFL scouts as a borderline first-round prospect heading into the year. That evaluation feels premature given what we’ve actually seen on the field.

There is no denying the raw talent. Leavitt possesses a live arm and legitimate athleticism that make him an enticing prospect in the 2027 NFL Draft class. You can make an argument that he has some of the best raw tools of any quarterback in the entire draft cycle. The problem is that raw tools and consistent production are two very different things, and the latter has not shown up often enough over the last two seasons.

The Kiffin factor

The optimism surrounding Leavitt largely stems from the offensive system he’s walking into. Kiffin, along with offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss Jr., has developed a strong reputation for quarterback development. Jaxson Dart and Trinidad Chambliss both thrived under their guidance over the last couple of seasons. The Kiffin-Weiss offense is extremely simplistic for the quarterback position, which should be a huge help for Leavitt, who has had a tendency in the past to play outside of structure and let things get chaotic.

Keeping things simple could allow his overall talent and skill set to take over. That is the best-case scenario, and it is a reasonable one.

The concerns people are overlooking

Here’s the thing about this situation. Leavitt is not just learning a new offense. He is transitioning to a new team, a completely new surrounding cast, and now stepping into the SEC. That is a significant adjustment under the best circumstances. These are not the best circumstances.

Leavitt, while recovering from the foot injury that ended his 2025 season, was unable to take live reps during spring practice. There have been encouraging reports about his mental processing coming along, and he has added some much-needed weight. He weighed in for NFL scouts at 213 pounds this past spring and is reportedly up above 215 now, which is a positive sign for a player who likes to get involved in the run game. Adding that body armor should help with the durability concerns that have plagued him.

Those are signs to work with, but an abbreviated offseason of installing a new system without live reps creates real question marks about Leavitt’s ability to transition cleanly. Those questions have not been asked regularly enough.

A wait-and-see evaluation

The quarterback we have seen on Saturdays over the last two years has been promising at times, but he has also underwhelmed more than people want to admit. The 2025 season at Arizona State was supposed to be a launching pad for Leavitt’s draft stock after a strong 2024 campaign. Instead, inconsistent play and injuries derailed that trajectory entirely.

If Kiffin and company work their magic again, then Leavitt has a chance to be a riser and a wild card in the SEC. I am not dismissing that possibility. But due to the abbreviated offseason, the injury question marks, and the overall underwhelming tape from last season, people should be much more cautious with their expectations rather than jumping fully onto this hype train.

Some folks will bookmark this, and perhaps I end up being completely wrong in the end. As of today, though, there are far more question marks than answers in Leavitt’s evaluation. There is a whole lot more possibility for him to struggle in 2026 based upon what we have seen so far than there is for him to emerge as the top-half-of-round-1 prospect some are projecting.

He holds the key to this LSU team making a smooth transition into the Kiffin era. I just have my doubts about whether he is ready to get the engine started.