We have a new leader in the 2026 Heisman race. The college football season has hit the home stretch, November is officially here, and it’s time to stop treating the Heisman contenders like a loose group of names. They need to be ranked from most likely to least likely to win the award.

For most of this season, Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has held the No. 1 spot on my board, and I think rightfully so. He has been the best player in the sport. But I also said all along that his odds of staying the front-runner and actually winning the award were lower than many people wanted to admit.

Unfortunately, that has become true.

Here’s how my Heisman board stacks up heading into the back half of the season:

1. Darian Mensah, QB, Miami
2. Malachi Toney, WR, Miami
3. Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
4. Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss

I have to restate it, though. The race is still wide open. The top three feel solid, but anybody from No. 4 down could look completely different in two weeks. Miami gets the first shot to tighten its grip on this thing against Notre Dame. If Mensah plays the way he has all season, this is his award to lose.

Darian Mensah deserved the top spot, and Malachi Toney should earn some praise too

My No. 1 Heisman contender right now is Miami quarterback Darian Mensah, followed by his teammate, Malachi Toney.

If the votes were cast right now, I think the award goes to the quarterback position, and that’s why Mensah sits on top. But Toney has firmly inserted himself into this race as a legitimate contender. And with a massive matchup against Notre Dame coming next weekend, the Hurricanes have a stage where either one of them can swing this race in a big way.

Two teammates sitting at Nos. 1 and 2 in November? That tells you everything about what Miami has done this season.

Jeremiah Smith didn’t lose the top spot in the Heisman race, the situation around him did

As things stand entering Week 10, Smith lands at No. 3 for me, and his case is pretty much already stated. Best player in the sport, unfortunate circumstances, deserving finalist.

To be fair to Smith, this isn’t really about his performances. It’s about the external factors around him, starting with the Julian Sayin injury. Smith had a good game against USC. But for a wide receiver to win the Heisman, it’s such a fine line, and the margin for anything going wrong around him is basically zero.

And you may say, Tegan, how do you drop the best player in the sport? Easy. The best player and the Heisman winner aren’t always the same guy, especially when that guy plays wide receiver. Smith absolutely deserves an invite to New York. He’s just not my front-runner anymore.

The No. 4 spot is a coin flip

Outside of those three, I’m going with Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss at No. 4. I’ll be upfront: this is not a confident pick. Not even close to a 110 percent call.

Chambliss has been incredible. He has carried that offense, and in my eyes, he’s the best overall quarterback in the country, even if Mensah has put together the better season so far. That distinction matters. Mensah has the better résumé right now. Chambliss is the better quarterback. The Heisman rewards the résumé.

And I could see Sam Leavitt starting to push his way into this conversation if he puts together a Heisman-caliber performance against Alabama. A big game on that stage changes everything for a player on the edge of this race.

Then there’s Jesse Legree, who has fallen off the list this week. He didn’t have the performance he needed as a Group of 6 receiver, finishing with seven catches for 70 yards and no touchdowns against Fresno State. Say what you want about the strength-of-schedule argument, but a Group of 6 receiver needs to dominate every single week to stay in this race. Seven catches for 70 yards doesn’t get it done. That’s brutal, but that’s the standard.